Collaborative Research: P2C2--Variability, Impacts and Extremes of the ENSO-Asian Monsoon Relationship over the Common Era

合作研究：P2C2——历代ENSO与亚洲季风关系的变化、影响和极端情况

• 批准号: 2102814
• 负责人: Sylvia Dee
• 金额: $ 29.45万
• 依托单位: William Marsh Rice University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2021-09-01 至 2024-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2102814&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; P2C2; Variability; Impacts

The research team aims to investigate the evolution of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-monsoon relationship over the last 2,000 years, diagnose how various external forcings (e.g., solar irradiance and greenhouse gases) and internal climate feedbacks from the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) modulate the ENSO-monsoon relationship, examine whether the recent literature documenting ENSO-monsoon relationship changes over the instrumental period hold in the past, and generate a statistical forecast model of the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM). Both the ASM and ENSO are fundamental components of the climate system. Investigating the variation of their relationship will deepen our understanding of teleconnections, air-sea interactions, and climate feedbacks. The paleoclimate data will serve as a testbed for the verification of current theories of the ASM thereby refining dynamical understanding.The ASM supplies freshwater resources for nearly four billion people annually. Extreme events associated with the ASM cause and/or exacerbate floods and droughts, which have far-reaching social and economic impacts in developing countries. Large model uncertainties, however, still exist in the model projections of the ASM. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important predictor of the ASM, yet the ENSO-monsoon relationship is not stable and exhibits substantial decadal variability. The variation of the ENSO-monsoon relationship is likely modulated by external forcing such as greenhouse gases (GHGs) and solar irradiance but also heavily modulated by internal modes of climate variability such as the PDO and the AMO. Paleoclimate records can extend the temporal coverage afforded by the instrumental era and help address such uncertainty.The potential Broader Impacts (B.I.) include integrating climate dynamics and modeling to refine projections of the ASM and its hydroclimate extremes, which impact the economic prosperity of nearly 4 billion people in Asian developing countries. The project will broaden diverse participation in climate modeling and climate risk research by supporting research opportunities for two assistant professors, a postdoctoral researcher, two doctoral graduate students, several undergraduate students including those from historically underrepresented groups, and outreach with K-12 students and the Girl Scouts of America. Results from this project will be disseminated to relevant management agency stakeholders at the local, state, and federal levels.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

在过去的2,000年中，研究团队调查了厄尔尼诺尼罗主义 - 南方振荡（ENSO） - 矿山关系，如何如何从各种外部强迫（例如太阳辐照度和温室气体）和来自太平洋decadal eScillation（PDO）和大西洋大西洋的内部气候反馈多年振荡（AMO）在过去的企业时期内的enso-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no季气关系变化，并产生了亚洲夏季季风的统计预测模型（ASM）。我们的L加深了我们的远程连接，空气相互作用和气候反馈的地位。每年与ASM事件和/或干旱的洪水相关的事件。关系不是稳定的，并且具有巨大的变化。将气候和建模整合到ASUM的预测，是氢化气候的极端，这会影响亚洲发展中的近40亿次经济繁荣。教授Tdoctoral研究人员，两名博士研究生，包括历史上不屈服的人，以及与K-12学生的宣传和美国女童军的宣传，该项目的结果将被分配给当地的NSF'Stututory代理机构利益相关者。使用Toundation Review标准的支持主题的磨牙评估。