CAREER: Advancing a macrosystems framework for climate-phenology coupling through integrated research and education

职业：通过综合研究和教育推进气候物候耦合的宏观系统框架

• 批准号: 2045309
• 负责人: Kai Zhu
• 金额: $ 73.21万
• 依托单位: University of California-Santa Cruz
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2021-09-01 至 2022-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2045309&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CAREER; Advancing; macrosystems; framework; climate

Phenology - the timing of recurring biological events - is nature’s calendar. Changes in timing of seasonal events such as leaf and flower emergence are among the most visible fingerprints of climate change. Such phenological changes, in turn, can affect climate by altering critical Earth system processes such as carbon uptake. Thus, climate and phenology are closely coupled, leading to a complex system with feedback loops. In this NSF CAREER project, a novel framework to quantify multiple processes in climate-phenology coupling will be developed to answer questions about how climate and phenology interact with each other across scales and among remote locations. This research on climate-phenology coupling will accrue significant societal benefits, such as facilitation of crop management and forecasting pollen outbreaks to mitigate airborne allergies in public health. This project will also implement an education plan at the University of California Santa Cruz, a Hispanic American-Serving Institution, to enhance climate change and data science education. Scientific outreach will be multiplicative and synergistic through student use of social media, transforming recipients of education into active educators of climate change.Building on the novel climate-phenology coupling framework, the project will construct a series of dynamical, statistical, and computational models to advance ecological forecasting in three ways. First, the strength of climate-phenology coupling will be systematically quantified over space and time on a global scale and interpreted in light of plant distributional shifts and human activities. Second, scaling, a fundamental challenge in macrosystems biology, will be tested with multi-scale datasets from the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON). The identification and quantification of cross-scale interactions and emergence will be pivotal to developing highly predictive phenology models. Third, the understudied field of teleconnections will be explored through spatiotemporal analyses, which will promote next-generation phenology models leading to improved projections of future carbon, water, and energy fluxes. The project will also develop reproducible workflows to stream data from multiple sources and perform near-term ecological forecasting. Finally, climate-phenology knowledge and novel data science skills gained in the research plans will be used to strengthen a data science training program for university students and professionals, enhance experiential learning for secondary school students, and improve climate change education for the general public.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

物候学 - 重复生物事件的时机 - 自然日历。季节性事件（例如叶子和花朵出现）的时间变化是气候变化最明显的指纹之一。反过来，这种物候变化会通过改变关键的地球系统过程（例如碳吸收）来影响气候。这是紧密耦合的气候和物候学，从而导致具有反馈回路的复杂系统。在这个NSF职业项目中，将开发一个新颖的框架，以量化气候色素耦合中的多个过程，以回答有关气候和物候学如何在范围内以及远程位置之间相互相互作用的问题。这项关于气候耦合的研究将带来重大的社会益处，例如作物管理的设施和预测花粉爆发以减轻公共卫生中的空中过敏。该项目还将在西班牙裔美国人服务机构加州大学圣克鲁斯分校实施一项教育计划，以增强气候变化和数据科学教育。科学宣传将通过学生使用社交媒体，将教育的接受者转变为主动教育，从而具有乘法和协同作用。该项目以新颖的气候耦合框架为基础，将构建一系列动态，统计和计算模型，以三种方式推进生态预测。首先，气候体现耦合的强度将在全球范围内在空间和时间上进行系统量化，并根据植物分布的变化和人类活动来解释。其次，缩放是宏观系统生物学的基本挑战，将通过国家生态观测网络（NEON）的多尺度数据集进行测试。跨尺度相互作用和出现的识别和量化对于开发高度预测的物候模型将是关键的。第三，将通过时空分析来探索远程连接的知识领域，该分析将促进下一代的物候模型，从而改善未来的碳，水和能量通量的项目。该项目还将开发可重现的工作流程，以从多个来源流式传输数据并进行近期的生态预测。最后，在研究计划中获得的气候体育学知识和新颖的数据科学技能将用于加强针对大学生和专业人士的数据科学培训计划，增强中学生的专家学习，并改善对公众的气候变化教育。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并认为通过基金会的知识优点和广泛的criperia来评估通过评估来获得评估，以此为宝贵。

项目成果

Harnessing the NEON data revolution to advance open environmental science with a diverse and data‐capable community

• DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.3833
• 发表时间: 2021-12
• 期刊: Ecosphere
• 影响因子: 2.7
• 作者: R. C. Nagy;J. Balch;E. Bissell;M. Cattau;N. Glenn;B. Halpern;N. Ilangakoon;Brian Johnson;Maxwell B. Joseph;S. Marconi;Catherine O’Riordan;J. Sanovia;T. Swetnam;W. Travis;L. wasser;Elizabeth Woolner;P. Zarnetske;M. Abdulrahim;J. Adler;G. Barnes;K. Bartowitz;Rachael E. Blake;Sara P. Bombaci;J. Brun;Jacob D. Buchanan;K. Chadwick;Melissa S. Chapman;Steven S. Chong;Y. A. Chung;Jessica R. Corman;Jannelle Couret;E. Crispo;T. Doak;Alison Donnelly;Katharyn A. Duffy;K. Dunning;S. Durán;J. Edmonds;D. Fairbanks;A. Felton;C. Florian;D. Gann;M. Gebhardt;N. Gill;W. Gram;Jessica S. Guo;Brian J. Harvey;K. Hayes;Matthew R. Helmus;R. Hensley;K. Hondula;T. Huang;Wiley J. Hundertmark;Virginia Iglesias;P. Jacinthe;L. Jansen;Marta A. Jarzyna;T. M. Johnson;Katherine D. Jones;Megan A. Jones;M. G. Just;Y. Kaddoura;Aurora K. Kagawa‐Vivani;A. Kaushik;A. B. Keller;Katelyn B. S. King;J. Kitzes;M. J. Koontz;P. Kouba;Wai-Yin Kwan;J. M. LaMontagne;E. LaRue;Daijiang Li;Bonan Li;Yang Lin;D. Liptzin;William Long;Adam L. Mahood;S. Malloy;S. Malone;J. McGlinchy;C. Meier;B. Melbourne;Nathan P. Mietkiewicz;J. Morisette;Moussa Moustapha;C. Muscarella;J. Musinsky;R. Muthukrishnan;K. Naithani;M. Neely;Kari E. A. Norman;S. Parker;Mariana Perez Rocha;L. Petri;Colette A. Ramey;S. Record;M. Rossi;M. SanClements;Victoria M. Scholl;A. Schweiger;B. Seyednasrollah;D. Sihi;Kathleen R. Smith;Eric R Sokol;S. Spaulding;Anna I. Spiers;Lise A. St. Denis;Anika P. Staccone;Kaitlin Stack Whitney;D. Stanitski;E. Stricker;Thilina D. Surasinghe;Sarah K. Thomsen;P. M. Vasek;Liao Xiaolu;Di Yang;Rong Yu;Kelsey M. Yule;K. Zhu

Interannual climate variability has predominant effects on seedling survival in a temperate forest

年际气候变化对温带森林幼苗的存活有主要影响

• DOI: 10.1002/ecy.3643
• 期刊: Ecology
• 影响因子: 4.8
• 作者: Xu Zhichao;Johnson Daniel J.;Zhu Kai;Lin Fei;Ye Ji;Yuan Zuoqiang;Mao Zikun;Fang Shuai;Hao Zhanqing;Wang Xugao
• 通讯作者: Wang Xugao

Widespread Mismatch Between Phenology and Climate in Human‐Dominated Landscapes

• DOI: 10.1029/2021av000431
• 发表时间: 2021-12
• 期刊: AGU Advances
• 影响因子: 8.4
• 作者: Yiluan Song;C. J. Zajic;T. Hwang;C. Hakkenberg;K. Zhu

Exploring discrepancies between in situ phenology and remotely derived phenometrics at NEON sites

• DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.3912
• 发表时间: 2022-01
• 期刊: Ecosphere
• 影响因子: 2.7
• 作者: Alison Donnelly;Rong Yu;Katherine D. Jones;M. Belitz;Bonan Li;Katharyn A. Duffy;Xiaoyang Zhang;Jianmin Wang;B. Seyednasrollah;Kathy Gerst;Daijiang Li;Y. Kaddoura;K. Zhu;J. Morisette;Colette A. Ramey;Kathleen Smith