CAREER: Dynamic adaptation of water resources systems to navigate uncertain hydrologic and human stressors

职业：水资源系统的动态适应，以应对不确定的水文和人类压力源

基本信息

批准号：
2041826
负责人：
Jonathan Herman
金额：
$ 50.95万
依托单位：
University of California-Davis
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Continuing Grant
财政年份：
2021
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2021-03-01 至 2026-02-28
项目状态：
未结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2041826&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
CAREER Dynamic adaptation water resources

项目摘要

Water resources infrastructure and management are central to the sustainability of communities and ecosystems. They must adapt to increasing hydrologic variability despite severe uncertainty in future projections. Recent studies have demonstrated the value of adaptive water planning, which involves determining how to navigate a range of possible future conditions as they unfold. However, dynamic adaptation remains a significant challenge in the face of uncertainties. This includes not only the impacts of extreme floods and droughts, which are confounded by natural variability, but also impacts of human behavior such as land use. The overarching goal of this CAREER project is to advance fundamental understanding of the coupled and evolving stressors facing water resources systems, and to leverage this dynamic information to transform the process of adaptive planning under uncertainty. This goal is to be achieved within the context of the northern California water resources system, supported by sustained engagement with state and local water agencies.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

水资源基础设施和管理对于社区和生态系统的可持续性至关重要。尽管未来的预测严重不确定性，但他们必须适应增加的水文变异性。最近的研究证明了自适应水计划的价值，其中涉及确定如何在展开时浏览一系列可能的未来条件。但是，面对不确定性，动态适应仍然是一个重大挑战。这不仅包括极端洪水和干旱的影响，这些影响会被自然变异性混淆，还包括人类行为（例如土地使用）的影响。该职业项目的总体目标是提高对水资源系统面临的耦合和不断发展的压力源的基本理解，并利用这种动态信息来改变不确定性下的适应性计划的过程。该目标是在北加州水资源系统的背景下实现的，并在与州和地方水上机构的持续参与的支持下。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并通过使用该基金会的知识分子和更广泛的评估来评估值得支持的支持。影响审查标准。

项目成果

期刊论文数量（3）

专著数量（0）

科研奖励数量（0）

会议论文数量（0）

专利数量（0）

Dynamic Adaptation of Water Resources Systems Under Uncertainty by Learning Policy Structure and Indicators

通过学习政策结构和指标来实现不确定性下水资源系统的动态适应

DOI：
10.1029/2021wr030433
发表时间：
2021
期刊：
Water Resources Research
影响因子：
5.4
作者：
Cohen, Jonathan S.;Herman, Jonathan D.
通讯作者：
Herman, Jonathan D.

Uncertainty Decomposition to Understand the Influence of Water Systems Model Error in Climate Vulnerability Assessments

不确定性分解以了解水系统模型误差对气候脆弱性评估的影响

DOI：
10.1029/2022wr032349
发表时间：
2023
期刊：
Water Resources Research
影响因子：
5.4
作者：
Steinschneider, Scott;Herman, Jonathan D.;Kucharski, John;Abellera, Marriah;Ruggiero, Peter
通讯作者：
Ruggiero, Peter

Detection Time for Nonstationary Reservoir System Performance Driven by Climate and Land-Use Change

气候和土地利用变化驱动的非平稳水库系统性能检测时间