P2C2: Constraining the Physics that Regulate Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity through Simulation of Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and Eocene Paleoclimates

P2C2：通过模拟末次盛冰期 (LGM) 和始新世古气候来约束调节平衡气候敏感性的物理原理

• 批准号: 2002397
• 负责人: Christopher Poulsen
• 金额: $ 38.47万
• 依托单位: Regents of the University of Michigan - Ann Arbor
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2020-09-01 至 2023-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2002397&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: P2C2; Constraining; Physics; Regulate; Equilibrium

This project seeks to investigate the causes and magnitude of Earth’s equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). The goal of the proposed project is twofold: (1) to use paleoclimate reconstructions of past cold and warm climates, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and Early Eocene, to constrain ECS and its state dependence in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) series including the latest CESM2, and (2) to provide a comprehensive mechanistic understanding of the physics that govern past and future ECS. The proposed work will include development of new LGM and Eocene simulations using CESM2 and comparison of ECS in CESM2 simulations with existing LGM and Eocene simulations performed with earlier versions of the model (CESM1.2. and CCSM4) that have very different physics packages. Each simulation will be judged against a synthesis of proxy data and a new paleoclimate reanalysis product in order to evaluate the performance of the CESM versions and to identify the best estimate of ECS. The researchers will analyze this suite of simulations using climate feedback decomposition and radiative locking techniques to investigate the physical processes that regulate ECS under LGM, present, and Eocene conditions. The potential Broader Impacts include model simulations of the LGM and Eocene that would be made publicly available for the broad paleoclimate community for further investigation and model-data comparisons. Other Broader Impacts include outreach activities planned in collaboration with the Earth Camp Program (University of Michigan) to develop a hands-on climate learning module at Camp Davies Field station with the aim to broaden participation of underrepresented minority students in the Earth Sciences. In addition, the project will support the training of an early career scientist (Post-doctoral researcher).This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

该项目旨在调查地球平衡气候敏感性（ECS）的原因和程度。拟议项目的目标有两个：（1）利用过去寒冷和温暖气候、末次盛冰期（LGM）和早期的古气候重建。始新世，限制 ECS 及其在社区地球系统模型 (CESM) 系列（包括最新的 CESM2）中的状态依赖性，以及 (2) 提供对控制过去和未来 ECS 的物理学的全面机械理解。拟议的工作将包括使用CESM2开发新的LGM和始新世模拟，以及将CESM2模拟中的ECS与使用具有非常不同的物理包的模型的早期版本（CESM1.2和CCSM4）执行的现有LGM和始新世模拟进行比较。模拟将根据代理数据和新的古气候再分析产品的综合进行判断，以评估 CESM 版本的性能并确定 ECS 的最佳估计。研究人员将分析该套件。使用气候反馈分解和辐射锁定技术进行模拟，以研究末次盛冰期、现今和始新世条件下调节 ECS 的物理过程。潜在的更广泛影响包括末次盛冰期和始新世的模型模拟，这些模型模拟将向广大古气候界公开。其他更广泛的影响包括与地球营计划（密歇根大学）合作计划的外展活动，以在戴维斯营现场站开发实践气候学习模块。扩大代表性不足的少数族裔学生对地球科学的参与。此外，该项目还将支持培养早期职业科学家（博士后研究员）。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准。

项目成果

Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate forcing and ocean dynamical feedback and their implications for estimating climate sensitivity

末次盛冰期 (LGM) 气候强迫和海洋动力反馈及其对估计气候敏感性的影响

• DOI: 10.5194/cp-17-253-2021
• 发表时间: 2021-01-27
• 期刊: Climate of The Past
• 作者: Jiang Zhu;C. Poulsen
• 通讯作者: C. Poulsen

Assessment of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity of the Community Earth System Model Version 2 Through Simulation of the Last Glacial Maximum

通过模拟末次盛冰期评估共同体地球系统模型第二版的平衡气候敏感性

• DOI: 10.1029/2020gl091220
• 发表时间: 2021-02
• 期刊: Geophysical Research Letters
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Zhu, Jiang;Otto‐Bliesner, Bette L.;Brady, Esther C.;Poulsen, Christopher J.;Tierney, Jessica E.;Lofverstrom, Marcus;DiNezio, Pedro
• 通讯作者: DiNezio, Pedro

LGM Paleoclimate Constraints Inform Cloud Parameterizations and Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity in CESM2

LGM 古气候约束为 CESM2 中的云参数化和平衡气候敏感性提供信息

• DOI: 10.1029/2021ms002776
• 发表时间: 2022-04
• 期刊: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
• 影响因子: 6.8
• 作者: Zhu, Jiang;Otto‐Bliesner, Bette L.;Brady, Esther C.;Gettelman, Andrew;Bacmeister, Julio T.;Neale, Richard B.;Poulsen, Christopher J.;Shaw, Jonah K.;McGraw, Zachary S.;Kay, Jennifer E.
• 通讯作者: Kay, Jennifer E.

High climate sensitivity in CMIP6 model not supported by paleoclimate

CMIP6 模型中的高气候敏感性不受古气候支持

• DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0764-6
• 发表时间: 2020-05
• 期刊: Nature Climate Change
• 影响因子: 30.7
• 作者: Zhu, Jiang;Poulsen, Christopher J.;Otto
• 通讯作者: Otto