Collaborative Research: Implications of Solar Radiation Management for Strategic Behavior and Climate Governance

合作研究：太阳辐射管理对战略行为和气候治理的影响

基本信息

批准号：
1948154
负责人：
Mark Borsuk
金额：
$ 56.59万
依托单位：
Duke University
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Continuing Grant
财政年份：
2020
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2020-04-01 至 2024-03-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1948154&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
Collaborative Research Implications Solar Radiation

项目摘要

With recent scientific reports warning of serious global impacts if greenhouse gas emissions are not quickly curtailed, some nations or other entities may be inclined to pursue a technological climate management strategy that does not require international cooperation. Solar radiation management (SRM) is emerging as the leading candidate from among a variety of potential “geoengineering” technologies. SRM seeks to increase the amount of sunlight reflected back into space to offset the heat-trapping effects of GHG emissions. One approach, which involves widespread release of reflective particles in the stratosphere, is expected to be especially cheap and fast‐acting. This means that a single nation that is especially vulnerable to climate change may decide to deploy SRM, even if it is potentially detrimental to other nations. This research project is designed to investigate how the potential availability and implementation of geoengineering is likely to impact future climate action and impacts. The research team also explores the ways in which alternative international governance frameworks might promote strategies that lead to the greatest global benefit. The project advances existing theory and models of climate action by considering the potential evolution of decision making as climate change becomes more urgent and nations struggle to reach a cooperative solution. This theoretical advancement is reinforced by behavioral laboratory experiments as well as computer model simulations. By providing insight into the wider ramifications of geoengineering, The research is timely and socially relevant. Specifically, the researchers broaden the impact of the work via three main mechanisms: (i) Direct engagement of domestic and international climate policymakers, to improve mutual understanding of the implications of SRM; (ii) Translation and dissemination of our modeling and experimental tools and results for application to other problems in science and technology policy; (iii) Provision of socially relevant experiences for diverse students that develop their capacity to communicate with decision makers.Climate change is a typical public goods problem, requiring collective action to successfully co-manage. Global collective action on climate change is a challenge, however, as each potential actor has an incentive to “free‐ride” on the actions of others. This leads to insufficient overall action – the so‐called “tragedy of the commons.” This situation may be transformed, however, by the potential of solar radiation management (SRM) as a non‐cooperative climate change management strategy. In particular, the injection of reflective particles into the stratosphere may be a sufficiently cheap and easy means of cooling the earth to be feasibly implemented by a single nation. However, SRM is an imperfect solution as it is short‐lived and has its own risks and governance challenges. In this project, we seek to understand the potential impacts of SRM on future climate management strategy, the prospects of cooperative action, and the role of international governance. Key research questions include: Under what conditions will SRM encourage free‐riding, free‐driving, or cooperation? Will nations reserve SRM as a last resort, or implement it before it is necessary? What role can SRM play in a climate management portfolio that includes mitigation and adaptation? How will heterogeneity among nations in their preference for SRM impact the potential for cooperation? How can international institutions rein in any free‐driver impetus created by SRM while incentivizing cooperation? This project addresses these and other research questions by connecting theory, model simulation, and experiment in pursuit of three specific aims: 1. Develop and analyze a game theoretic model of the dynamics of international climate cooperation when some nations have the ability to implement SRM. 2. Design and implement experimental games that represent the key features of SRM to test the theoretic model against actual behavior and to inform development of an agent‐based simulation. 3. Simulate and field test alternative frameworks for international governance and institutional design that promote climate strategies with the greatest social benefit. While our project is motivated by the prospect of SRM as a non‐cooperative, short‐term solution to climate change, insights from our project are potentially applicable to any situation in which a risky technology is being presented as a quick fix for problems traditionally addressed through collective action. Finally, the project team addresses opportunities for transferring the theory, modelling, and experimental frameworks to other settings.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

随着最近的科学报告警告，如果没有快速减少温室气体排放的严重影响，则可能会增加一些国家或其他实体，以采取不需要国际合作的技术气候管理策略。太阳辐射管理（SRM）正在成为各种潜在“地球工程”技术中的领先候选人。 SRM试图增加反射回空间的阳光量，以抵消GHG排放的热吸收效应。一种方法涉及在平流层中反射颗粒的宽度释放，预计将特别便宜且快速效果。这意味着，一个特别容易受到气候变化的单一国家也可能决定部署SRM，即使它可能对其他国家有害。该研究项目旨在调查地球工程的潜在可用性和实施如何影响未来的气候行动和影响。研究小组还探讨了替代国际治理框架可能促进导致全球最大收益的战略的方式。由于气候变化的潜在发展，该项目通过考虑决策的潜在演变来推动现有的理论和气候行动模型，而且国家努力达到教练解决方案。行为实验室实验以及计算机模型模拟可以加强理论的进步。通过洞悉地球工程的更广泛影响，该研究具有及时且与社会相关。具体而言，研究人员通过三种主要机制扩大了工作的影响：（i）国内和国际气候政策制定者的直接参与，以提高对SRM含义的相互理解；（ii）对我们的建模和实验工具的翻译和传播，以及适用于科学技术政策中其他问题的结果；（iii）为潜水员提供与决策者交流能力的潜水员学生提供与社会相关的经验。ClimateChange是一个典型的公共物品问题，需要集体行动才能成功共同管理。但是，全球对气候变化的集体行动是一个挑战，因为每个潜在的参与者都有对他人行动“自由骑行”的动机。这会导致整体行动不足 - 所谓的“公地悲剧”。但是，可以通过太阳辐射管理（SRM）作为一种非合作气候变化管理策略的潜力来改变情况。特别是，将反射颗粒注入稻草层可能是一种足够便宜而简单的方法来冷却地球，可以由一个国家实施。但是，SRM是一个不完美的解决方案，因为它是短暂的，并且有自身的风险和治理挑战。在这个项目中，我们试图了解SRM对未来气候管理战略，合作行动的前景以及国际治理作用的潜在影响。关键研究问题包括：在什么条件下，SRM会鼓励自由骑行，自由驾驶或合作？国家保留SRM作为最后的度假胜地，还是在必要之前实施它？ SRM在包括缓解和适应的气候管理产品组合中可以发挥什么作用？国家偏爱SRM的异质性将如何影响合作的潜力？国际机构如何在增加合作的同时，如何控制SRM产生的任何自由驱动器动力？该项目通过连接理论，模型模拟和实验来追求三个具体目标：1。开发和分析国际气候合作动态的游戏理论模型，当某些国家具有实施SRM时，开发和分析了游戏理论模型。 2。设计和实施实验游戏，代表SRM的关键特征，以测试针对实际行为的理论模型并为基于代理的模拟开发提供信息。 3。为国际治理和机构设计模拟和现场测试替代框架，以促进具有最大社会利益的气候战略。尽管我们的项目是由SRM作为一种非合作的，短期解决气候变化解决方案的前景，但我们项目的洞察力可能适用于任何存在风险技术作为对传统上通过集体行动解决的问题的快速解决的情况。最后，项目团队解决了将理论，建模和实验框架转移到其他环境的机会。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并使用基金会的知识分子优点和更广泛的影响评估审查标准，被认为是珍贵的支持。

项目成果

期刊论文数量（7）

专著数量（0）

科研奖励数量（0）

会议论文数量（0）

专利数量（0）

Learning to Manage the Multirisk World

学习管理多重风险世界

DOI：
10.1111/risa.13629
发表时间：
2020
期刊：
Risk Analysis
影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Wiener, Jonathan B.
通讯作者：
Wiener, Jonathan B.

Reflections on a hypothetical decentralized grassroots deployment solar geoengineering scenario

DOI：
10.1016/j.futures.2021.102811
发表时间：
2021-07
期刊：
Futures
影响因子：
3
作者：
A. Pasek;D. Morrow;W. Lee;T. Felgenhauer
通讯作者：
A. Pasek;D. Morrow;W. Lee;T. Felgenhauer

Climate cooperation in the shadow of solar geoengineering: an experimental investigation of the moral hazard conjecture

太阳能地球工程阴影下的气候合作：道德风险猜想的实验研究

DOI：
10.1080/09644016.2022.2066285
发表时间：
2022
期刊：
Environmental Politics
影响因子：
5.5
作者：
Cherry, Todd L.;Kroll, Stephan;McEvoy, David M.;Campoverde, David;Moreno-Cruz, Juan
通讯作者：
Moreno-Cruz, Juan

The Role of Non-Binding Pledges in Social Dilemmas with Mitigation and Adaptation

非约束性承诺在缓解和适应社会困境中的作用