CAREER: Toward a Global Understanding of Severe Convective Environments

职业生涯：全球对强对流环境的理解

• 批准号: 1945286
• 负责人: John Allen
• 金额: $ 65.94万
• 依托单位: Central Michigan University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2020-06-01 至 2025-05-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1945286&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CAREER; Toward; Global; Understanding; Severe

Severe convective storms (SCS) produce damaging hail, intense wind gusts, and tornadoes that can result in significant losses, injuries, and fatalities. They pose a threat on every continent except Antarctica. Current observations of SCS are very sparse, and data records are limited. As such, our knowledge of where, why, and how often SCS occur globally is lacking. To address these difficulties, parameters derived from atmospheric conditions that foster SCS development (that is, favorable environments) have been used to assess SCS likelihood. Without these environments, developing storms will struggle to become SCS. The impacts of SCS are expected to grow with sprawling population centers and as favorable environments become more frequent with the warmer climate. This proposal aims to characterize the development of favorable environments across the globe and how global warming affects their development. While shedding light on the potential for SCS formation worldwide, this research may improve SCS forecasts and help manage risks and exposures to SCS. In addition to training students in research, the work will develop interactive educational contents and online instructional modules to raise public awareness to the threats posed by SCS.The overarching research objective is to analyze the frequency at which favorable environments occur globally and assess whether they will change uniformly in a warming climate. The investigators will evaluate the capacity of available reanalyses to characterize favorable environments in different regions and weather regimes. They will assess the global likelihood of favorable SCS environments and quantify the underlying synoptic and mesoscale processes. Lastly, they will address how these favorable environments change in high-resolution simulations of global warming projections. To this end, this research can provide a new and fundamental understanding of the underlying frequency and processes leading to the SCS development and in response to a warming climate at previously unexplored resolutions. Integrating research and education, this proposal will focus on bringing a global perspective to SCS and climate change education, and improve the understanding of risk to property, agriculture and people by developing interactive educational resources and online modules.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

严重的对流风暴（SC）会产生破坏性的冰雹，强烈的风阵和龙卷风，从而导致巨大的损失，伤害和死亡。他们在南极以外的每个大陆构成威胁。 SC的当前观察结果非常稀疏，数据记录受到限制。因此，我们对SC在全球范围内缺乏何处，原因和经常发生的了解。为了解决这些困难，已使用促进SC开发（即有利的环境）的大气条件得出的参数已用于评估SC的可能性。没有这些环境，发展风暴将难以成为SC。预计SC的影响将随着人口庞大的中心而增长，随着气候较温暖的环境，有利的环境变得更加频繁。该建议旨在表征全球有利环境的发展以及全球变暖如何影响其发展。尽管阐明了全球SCS组的潜力，但这项研究可能会改善SCS的预测，并有助于管理对SCS的风险和风险。除了培训研究学生外，这项工作还将开发互动的教育内容和在线教学模块，以提高公众对SC所带来的威胁的认识。总体研究目标是分析在全球范围内发生有利环境的频率，并评估他们是否会评估他们是否会在温暖的气候下统一变化。调查人员将评估可用重新分析的能力，以表征不同地区和天气制度中有利环境的能力。他们将评估有利的SCS环境的全球可能性，并量化潜在的天气和中尺度过程。最后，他们将解决这些有利的环境如何在全球变暖预测的高分辨率模拟中改变。为此，这项研究可以提供对导致SCS开发的基本频率和过程的新的，基本的理解，并在先前未开发的分辨率下响应温暖的气候。该建议将研究和教育整合，将重点放在为SCS和气候变化教育带来全球视角上，并通过开发互动教育资源和在线模块来提高对财产，农业和人员的风险的理解。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并已有使用基金会的知识分子优点和更广泛的审查标准，被认为值得通过评估来支持。

项目成果

Australian Tornadoes in 2013: Implications for Climatology and Forecasting

2013 年澳大利亚龙卷风：对气候学和预报的影响

• DOI: 10.1175/mwr-d-20-0248.1
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Monthly Weather Review
• 影响因子: 3.2
• 作者: Allen, John T.;Allen, Edwina R.;Richter, Harald;Lepore, Chiara
• 通讯作者: Lepore, Chiara

Future Global Convective Environments in CMIP6 Models

• DOI: 10.1029/2021ef002277
• 发表时间: 2021-12-01
• 期刊: EARTHS FUTURE
• 影响因子: 8.2
• 作者: Lepore, Chiara;Abernathey, Ryan;Tippett, Michael K.
• 通讯作者: Tippett, Michael K.

Are trends in convective parameters over the United States and Europe consistent between reanalyses and observations?

• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0135.1
• 发表时间: 2022-02
• 期刊: Journal of Climate
• 影响因子: 4.9
• 作者: Natalia Pilguj;M. Taszarek;J. Allen;K. Hoogewind

Comparison of convective parameters derived from ERA5 and MERRA2 with rawinsonde data over Europe and North America

• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0484.1
• 发表时间: 2020-12
• 期刊: Journal of Climate
• 影响因子: 4.9
• 作者: M. Taszarek;Natalia Pilguj;J. Allen;Victor A. Gensini;H. Brooks;Piotr Szuster

Severe Convective Storms across Europe and the United States. Part I: Climatology of Lightning, Large Hail, Severe Wind, and Tornadoes

欧洲和美国遭遇强对流风暴。

• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0345.1
• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: Journal of Climate
• 影响因子: 4.9
• 作者: Taszarek, Mateusz;Allen, John T.;Groenemeijer, Pieter;Edwards, Roger;Brooks, Harold E.;Chmielewski, Vanna;Enno, Sven-Erik
• 通讯作者: Enno, Sven-Erik