CoPe: Collaborative Research: EAGER: An analysis of the impacts of sea-level change related flooding on commuting patterns and neighborhood gentrification.

CoPe：合作研究：EAGER：分析与海平面变化相关的洪水对通勤模式和社区高档化的影响。

• 批准号: 1939843
• 负责人: Valerie Mueller
• 金额: $ 24.99万
• 依托单位: Arizona State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2019-10-01 至 2021-09-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1939843&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CoPe; Collaborative; Research; EAGER; analysis; CoPe; Collaborative; Research; EAGER; analysis

This research investigates how tidal flooding ("nuisance" flooding) related to sea-level change impacts commuting patterns and how this differentially affects residents of coastal communities. Commuting patterns vary in the extent to which they are affected by nuisance flooding because of variation in topography and other geographic variables. This project provides an estimate of the differential impact of sea-level change related flooding on communities with different socio-economic levels by considering how flooding impacts employment access. The investigators will develop a predictive model to assess how this differential impact might evolve as flooding increases. Tools developed in the project can improve the welfare of people living in coastal cities by identifying road segments, locales, and demographic groups vulnerable to sea-level change related flooding. The tools will advance national prosperity by helping cities determine which neighborhoods and business areas are likely to be impacted by impediments to commuters. Although this project focuses on Miami, use of publicly available data and models ensures that the approach will serve the national interest by being easily replicable for other U.S. municipalities.This project consists of five activities that develop a methodology for predicting how road obstruction from sea-level change related flooding affects commuting patterns, demographics, and the economic vitality of coastal communities. The first activity is the analysis of tidal gauge and elevation data to establish how increased flooding over the last decade contributes to road inundation. The second combines this data with home and workplace location information and travel time algorithms to estimate the effect of inundation on commuting times. The third adds socio-economic data to the existing analysis to determine whether marginalized populations have been disproportionately affected by flooding. The fourth activity takes advantage of changes over time to establish a relationship between road obstruction and the spatial allocation of workers' homes and destinations. Specifically, the project determines how adjustments in commuting times alter neighborhood demographic composition and how this may affect gentrification. The research also identifies whether areas that are sources of employment are affected by flood risk. The fifth activity is forward looking, projecting how increases in sea-level change related flooding are likely to affect different demographic groups under current and projected population levels.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

这项研究调查了与海平面变化有关的潮汐洪水（“滋扰”洪水）如何影响通勤模式，以及这对差异化对沿海社区居民的影响如何。 由于地形和其他地理变量的变化，通勤模式在其受滋扰洪水影响的程度上有所不同。该项目通过考虑洪水如何影响就业机会来估算有关海平面变化与社会经济水平不同的社区的差异影响。研究人员将开发一个预测模型，以评估随着洪水的增加，这种差异影响可能如何发展。该项目中开发的工具可以通过识别容易受到海平面变化与洪水相关的洪水的路段，地区和人口群体来改善居住在沿海城市的人们的福利。这些工具将通过帮助城市确定哪些社区和业务领域可能会受到通勤者的障碍影响哪些社区和业务领域的繁荣。尽管该项目侧重于迈阿密，但使用公共数据和模型可确保该方法通过在美国其他市政当局易于复制来满足国家利益。该项目由五种活动组成，这些活动开发了一种方法，用于预测海平面变化与海平面相关的洪水的道路阻塞如何影响通勤模式，人民际交通范围，范围以及沿海社区的经济活力。第一个活动是对潮汐仪和高程数据的分析，以确定过去十年中洪水增加如何导致道路淹没。第二个将这些数据与家庭和工作场所位置信息和旅行时间算法相结合，以估算淹没对通勤时间的影响。第三个将社会经济数据添加到现有分析中，以确定边缘化人群是否受到洪灾的影响不成比例。 第四项活动会随着时间的流逝而变化，以建立道路阻塞与工人房屋和目的地的空间分配之间的关系。具体而言，该项目确定通勤时间的调整如何改变邻里人口组成，以及这可能如何影响绅士化。该研究还确定了作为就业来源的地区是否受洪水风险影响。第五项活动是前瞻性的，预测，与当前和预计的人口水平下，海平面变化相关洪水的增加如何影响不同的人口群体。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并被认为是值得通过基金会的智力优点和更广泛影响的审查标准通过评估来获得支持的。