NNA Track 1: Collaborative Research: Maritime transportation in a changing Arctic: Navigating climate and sea ice uncertainties

NNA 第 1 轨道：合作研究：不断变化的北极的海上运输：应对气候和海冰的不确定性

基本信息

批准号：
1928112
负责人：
Hiba Baroud
金额：
$ 78万
依托单位：
Vanderbilt University
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
2020
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2020-01-01 至 2024-12-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1928112&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
NNA Track Collaborative Research Maritime

项目摘要

Navigating the New Arctic (NNA) is one of NSF's 10 Big Ideas. NNA projects address convergence scientific challenges in the rapidly changing Arctic. The Arctic research is needed to inform the economy, security and resilience of the Nation, the larger region and the globe. NNA empowers new research partnerships from local to international scales, diversifies the next generation of Arctic researchers, and integrates the co-production of knowledge. This award fulfills part of that aim. Recent changes in climate have resulted in less sea ice in the Arctic ocean. This development has opened new Arctic travel routes and increased vessel traffic along existing shipping routes. Increased shipping requires a reliable Arctic maritime navigation system for safety and efficiency. However, navigation risk management in the Arctic poses many challenges compared to general maritime transportation due to significant uncertainties in climate, weather, and sea ice conditions. This project addresses these uncertainties by developing a comprehensive approach to forecast future climate and sea ice conditions in the Arctic. The results are being used to evaluate the resulting risk of Arctic maritime navigation. The outcome of this research supports a safe, reliable, and resilient navigation system for shippers seeking efficient transit routes through the Arctic. Others will benefit as well, including emergency responders, local communities, Arctic researchers, fishing and pleasure craft, and other stakeholders. This project is developing and applying a risk-based framework integrating an analysis of environmental conditions, an assessment of navigation risk, and an evaluation of the consequences of incidents. Climate and sea ice models are analyzed to probabilistically assess environmental conditions and navigability of Arctic routes. Modeled sea ice thickness is used as a tracer for navigability of shipping routes. Climate model output is analyzed to better understand the mean state and variability spatially along routes and over time. The likelihood of an incident is being evaluated using Bayesian predictive models to incorporate uncertainty with historical data and updated information from climate and sea ice models. The predictive models are integrated with economic interdependency models to evaluate consequences of Arctic navigation incidents. The resulting probabilistic economic models are a function of the likelihood of an incident occurring and evaluate direct and indirect economic impact at the local and global scales. The outcome of the risk and economic assessment provides feedback on the most significant risk factors. Additional climate and sea ice model runs will be used to further evaluate variables to refine risk models. A stochastic simulation will iterate through the integrated risk analysis approach over a range of possible scenarios of climate models and sea ice conditions to evaluate the range of likelihood and economic impact of incidents.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

NSF的10个大创意之一是导航新北极（NNA）。 NNA项目应对北极快速变化的融合科学挑战。需要进行北极研究，以告知国家，较大地区和全球的经济，安全和弹性。 NNA赋予从本地量表到国际规模的新研究伙伴关系，使下一代北极研究人员多样化，并整合了知识的共同生产。该奖项实现了该目标的一部分。最新气候变化导致北极海洋的海冰较少。这一开发已开辟了新的北极旅行路线，并增加了现有运输路线的船只交通。增加运输需要可靠的北极海上导航系统，以实现安全性和效率。但是，由于气候，天气和海冰条件的严重不确定性，北极的导航风险管理与一般海上运输相比，带来了许多挑战。该项目通过开发一种全面的方法来解决这些不确定性，以预测北极的未来气候和海冰状况。结果用于评估北极海上导航的最终风险。这项研究的结果支持一个安全，可靠且有弹性的导航系统，用于寻求通过北极的有效过境途径的托运人。其他人也将受益，包括应急人员，当地社区，北极研究人员，钓鱼和娱乐船以及其他利益相关者。该项目正在开发和应用基于风险的框架，该框架整合了环境条件的分析，导航风险的评估以及对事件后果的评估。分析气候和海冰模型，以评估北极路线的环境条件和可通道。建模的海冰厚度用作运输路线导航性的示踪剂。分析气候模型输出，以更好地沿着路线和随着时间的时间在空间上理解平均状态和可变性。使用贝叶斯预测模型对事件的可能性进行评估，以将不确定性与历史数据和气候和海冰模型中的更新信息结合在一起。预测模型与经济相互依存模型集成在一起，以评估北极导航事件的后果。由此产生的概率经济模型是事件发生并评估本地和全球范围内直接和间接经济影响的可能性的函数。风险和经济评估的结果为最重要的风险因素提供了反馈。其他气候和海冰模型运行将用于进一步评估变量以完善风险模型。随机模拟将通过综合风险分析方法在气候模型和海冰条件的一系列可能场景中进行迭代，以评估事件的似然和经济影响的范围。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并被认为是值得通过基金会的智力和更广泛影响的评估来通过评估来支持的，这是值得的。