NNA Track 1: Collaborative Research: Arctic Urban Risks and Adaptations (AURA): a co-production framework for addressing multiple changing environmental hazards

NNA 第 1 轨道：合作研究：北极城市风险与适应 (AURA)：解决多种不断变化的环境危害的联合生产框架

基本信息

批准号：
1927537
负责人：
Dmitry Nicolsky
金额：
$ 57.16万
依托单位：
University of Alaska Fairbanks Campus
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
2019
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2019-10-01 至 2024-09-30
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1927537&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
NNA Track Collaborative Research Arctic

项目摘要

Navigating the New Arctic (NNA) is one of NSF's 10 Big Ideas. NNA projects address convergence scientific challenges in the rapidly changing Arctic. The Arctic research is needed to inform the economy, security and resilience of the Nation, the larger region and the globe. NNA empowers new research partnerships from local to international scales, diversifies the next generation of Arctic researchers, and integrates the co-production of knowledge. This award fulfills part of that aim. Climate change is increasing vulnerability of Arctic urban communities to natural hazards such as unstable permafrost, wildfire, and rain-in-winter events. These hazards put residents and property at risk and impose economic costs, and households, businesses, and governments must adapt to these interacting hazards. This research is developing detailed maps showing how the occurrence of these three natural hazards has evolved simultaneously in the Municipality of Anchorage and the Fairbanks North Star Borough, Alaska, and Whitehorse, Yukon, Canada over the past several decades, and how they might change over the next 40 years. The interdisciplinary research team of economists; permafrost, fire, weather, climate, and environmental scientists; and policy experts conducts transdisciplinary research on Arctic natural hazards and their impacts on the natural and built environments and society. The research team works closely with local governments and non-governmental organizations (NGOs), Indigenous groups, insurance companies, and residents to co-produce knowledge on the costs, risks, and actions taken to mitigate and adapt to these hazards. The team and stakeholders collaborate to determine optimal ways to measure the effects of hazards on society and the built environment, identify trade-offs and interactions, develop a multiple-hazard risk assessment, and generate options for future adaptive planning. This project is one of the first to include effects of climate change on private as well as public infrastructure, a gap which has limited the understanding of effects of climate change in Alaska. Results provide a framework that other Arctic communities can use to assess risks and reduce economic damages due to climate change and provide examples to increase resilience. Research activities over four years include: (1) spatial modeling and mapping of natural hazards and their interactions; (2) gathering data to assess perceived risks, values at risk, and adaptation costs with interviews, property owner surveys, and citizen science; (3) economic modeling of costs and risks; and (4) developing in a series of scenario planning workshops an adaptive policy framework that can be used to adapt to and mitigate multiple hazards and reduce future costs and risks. The research helps partner communities make better-informed decisions regarding how and where to build and manage public and private infrastructure and finance public services. This framework can be used by other Arctic communities to assess risks and reduce economic damages due to climate change.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

航行新北极 (NNA) 是 NSF 的 10 大创意之一。 NNA 项目解决快速变化的北极地区的融合科学挑战。北极研究需要为国家、更大地区和全球的经济、安全和复原力提供信息。 NNA 赋予从地方到国际规模的新研究伙伴关系，使下一代北极研究人员多样化，并整合知识的共同生产。该奖项部分实现了这一目标。气候变化使北极城市社区更容易遭受不稳定的永久冻土、野火和冬雨等自然灾害的影响。这些危害使居民和财产面临风险，并造成经济成本，家庭、企业和政府必须适应这些相互作用的危害。这项研究正在绘制详细的地图，显示过去几十年来安克雷奇市、阿拉斯加州费尔班克斯北极星自治市和加拿大育空地区怀特霍斯这三种自然灾害的发生情况如何同时演变，以及它们可能如何变化。未来40年。经济学家的跨学科研究团队；永久冻土、火灾、天气、气候和环境科学家；政策专家对北极自然灾害及其对自然和建筑环境和社会的影响进行跨学科研究。研究团队与地方政府和非政府组织 (NGO)、原住民群体、保险公司和居民密切合作，共同提供有关成本、风险以及减轻和适应这些危害所采取的行动的知识。团队和利益相关者合作确定最佳方法来衡量危害对社会和建筑环境的影响，确定权衡和相互作用，制定多种危害风险评估，并为未来的适应性规划提供选项。该项目是首批纳入气候变化对私人和公共基础设施影响的项目之一，这一差距限制了人们对阿拉斯加气候变化影响的了解。研究结果提供了一个框架，其他北极社区可以使用该框架来评估气候变化造成的风险和减少经济损失，并提供提高抵御能力的实例。四年的研究活动包括：（1）自然灾害及其相互作用的空间建模和绘图； (2) 通过访谈、业主调查和公民科学收集数据以评估感知风险、风险价值和适应成本； (3) 成本和风险的经济模型； (4) 通过一系列情景规划研讨会制定适应性政策框架，可用于适应和减轻多种灾害并降低未来成本和风险。该研究帮助合作伙伴社区就如何以及在何处建设和管理公共和私人基础设施以及为公共服务提供资金方面做出更明智的决策。其他北极社区可以使用该框架来评估气候变化带来的风险并减少经济损失。该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。