NNA Track 1: Collaborative Research: Arctic Urban Risks and Adaptations (AURA): a co-production framework for addressing multiple changing environmental hazards

NNA 第 1 轨道：合作研究：北极城市风险与适应 (AURA)：解决多种不断变化的环境危害的联合生产框架

基本信息

批准号：
1927537
负责人：
Dmitry Nicolsky
金额：
$ 57.16万
依托单位：
University of Alaska Fairbanks Campus
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
2019
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2019-10-01 至 2024-09-30
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1927537&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
NNA Track Collaborative Research Arctic

项目摘要

Navigating the New Arctic (NNA) is one of NSF's 10 Big Ideas. NNA projects address convergence scientific challenges in the rapidly changing Arctic. The Arctic research is needed to inform the economy, security and resilience of the Nation, the larger region and the globe. NNA empowers new research partnerships from local to international scales, diversifies the next generation of Arctic researchers, and integrates the co-production of knowledge. This award fulfills part of that aim. Climate change is increasing vulnerability of Arctic urban communities to natural hazards such as unstable permafrost, wildfire, and rain-in-winter events. These hazards put residents and property at risk and impose economic costs, and households, businesses, and governments must adapt to these interacting hazards. This research is developing detailed maps showing how the occurrence of these three natural hazards has evolved simultaneously in the Municipality of Anchorage and the Fairbanks North Star Borough, Alaska, and Whitehorse, Yukon, Canada over the past several decades, and how they might change over the next 40 years. The interdisciplinary research team of economists; permafrost, fire, weather, climate, and environmental scientists; and policy experts conducts transdisciplinary research on Arctic natural hazards and their impacts on the natural and built environments and society. The research team works closely with local governments and non-governmental organizations (NGOs), Indigenous groups, insurance companies, and residents to co-produce knowledge on the costs, risks, and actions taken to mitigate and adapt to these hazards. The team and stakeholders collaborate to determine optimal ways to measure the effects of hazards on society and the built environment, identify trade-offs and interactions, develop a multiple-hazard risk assessment, and generate options for future adaptive planning. This project is one of the first to include effects of climate change on private as well as public infrastructure, a gap which has limited the understanding of effects of climate change in Alaska. Results provide a framework that other Arctic communities can use to assess risks and reduce economic damages due to climate change and provide examples to increase resilience. Research activities over four years include: (1) spatial modeling and mapping of natural hazards and their interactions; (2) gathering data to assess perceived risks, values at risk, and adaptation costs with interviews, property owner surveys, and citizen science; (3) economic modeling of costs and risks; and (4) developing in a series of scenario planning workshops an adaptive policy framework that can be used to adapt to and mitigate multiple hazards and reduce future costs and risks. The research helps partner communities make better-informed decisions regarding how and where to build and manage public and private infrastructure and finance public services. This framework can be used by other Arctic communities to assess risks and reduce economic damages due to climate change.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

NSF的10个大创意之一是导航新北极（NNA）。 NNA项目应对北极快速变化的融合科学挑战。需要进行北极研究，以告知国家，较大地区和全球的经济，安全和弹性。 NNA赋予从本地量表到国际规模的新研究伙伴关系，使下一代北极研究人员多样化，并整合了知识的共同生产。该奖项实现了该目标的一部分。气候变化正在增加北极城市社区对自然危害的脆弱性，例如多年冻草，野火和冬季冬季事件。这些危害使居民和财产处于危险之中，施加经济成本，家庭，企业和政府必须适应这些相互作用的危害。这项研究正在开发详细的地图，表明在过去的几十年中，安克雷奇市和加拿大Yukon的Fairbanks North Star Borough和Whitehorse的市政当局以及Fairbanks North Star Borough和Whitehorse如何同时演变出来的详细地图，以及它们在未来40年内如何改变。经济学家跨学科研究团队；多年冻土，火灾，天气，气候和环境科学家；政策专家对北极自然危害及其对自然和建筑环境和社会的影响进行了跨学科研究。研究小组与地方政府和非政府组织（NGOS），土著团体，保险公司和居民紧密合作，以共同培养有关减轻和适应这些危害所采取的成本，风险和行动的知识。团队和利益相关者合作，以确定衡量危害对社会和建筑环境的影响，确定权衡和互动，制定多重危害风险评估的最佳方法，并为未来的自适应计划提供选择。该项目是最早包含气候变化对私人和公共基础设施的影响的项目之一，这是一个差距，限制了对阿拉斯加气候变化影响的理解。结果提供了一个框架，其他北极社区可以用来评估风险并减少由于气候变化而造成的经济损失，并提供示例以提高弹性。四年多的研究活动包括：（1）自然危害及其相互作用的空间建模和映射；（2）收集数据，以评估访谈，财产所有人调查和公民科学的感知风险，风险的价值以及适应成本；（3）成本和风险的经济建模；（4）在一系列场景计划研讨会中开发一个适应性政策框架，可用于适应和减轻多种危害并降低未来的成本和风险。该研究帮助合作伙伴社区就如何以及在何处建立和管理公共和私人基础设施以及财务公共服务做出更有信息的决定。该框架可以被其他北极社区使用来评估风险并减少由于气候变化而导致的经济损失。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并认为使用基金会的知识分子优点和更广泛的影响评估标准，被认为值得通过评估。