Paleochronometry as a control problem for recovering holocene climate variations over the Greenland Ice Sheet

古年代学作为恢复格陵兰冰盖全新世气候变化的控制问题

• 批准号: 1903596
• 负责人: Patrick Heimbach
• 金额: $ 46.55万
• 依托单位: University of Texas at Austin
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2019-09-01 至 2024-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1903596&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Paleochronometry; control; problem; recovering; holocene

The Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) has emerged as a significant contributor to present-day, and possibly future global sea level rise. Predictions of mass loss over the coming century have been hampered by large discord between current-generation ice sheet models. Major challenges are the lack of suitable observational constraints for model calibration and accurate histories of past surface climates that may serve as surface forcing boundary conditions in ice sheet model simulations. This project addresses these challenges through the use of observational data in the form of stratigraphic horizons of constant age that have been imaged by numerous ice-penetrating radar surveys, which serve as a data-constraints on the past flow and boundary conditions of an ice sheet model. The method developed will provide a novel approach for rigorous ice sheet calibration and initialization. Beyond the scientific application that is targeted at past climate reconstruction from ice sheet internal data, the infrastructure to enable this will be publicly available to the community, being based on the open-source ice sheet model. The project will support the transition of a female early-career scientist into an independent research career.Solving the state and parameter estimation problem as a terminal constraint control problem enables us to make several key scientific advances: (i) develop a time-evolving GrIS state that is consistent with the time history encapsulated in the age layer data; (ii) jointly invert for a set of optimal model parameters (i.e., model calibration) and time-varying optimal surface forcings that are consistent with the underlying ice sheet evolution (i.e., reconstruction of a consistent climate forcing history); and (iii) develop a realistic transient simulation of the ice sheet over the Holocene period, leading into a present state that may serve as well-balanced initial condition for prediction, and for which initialization shocks or artificial model drift are expected to be minimal, by construction. A key computational ingredient that enables the proposed work is the development of a time-dependent adjoint model of an ice sheet model that is able to evolve internal ice age structures. We propose to accomplish this by means of algorithmic differentiation (AD) with the open-source tool OpenAD, applied to the SImulation COde for POLythermal Ice Sheets (SICOPOLIS) model. This reconstruction of past ice flow and the boundary conditions of the Greenland Ice Sheet is necessary to reproduce the observed ages (from ice cores) and also enables us to test with finer spatio-temporal detail the onset of important past climatic events, including the Holocene Climatic Optimum and the Little Ice Age. Exactly how, when, and where these events may be recovered by this state estimate will shed light on how the GrIS responds to rapid changes in climate, both in its entirety and regionally.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

格陵兰冰盖（GrIS）已成为当今乃至未来全球海平面上升的重要因素。当前一代冰盖模型之间的巨大不一致阻碍了对下个世纪质量损失的预测。主要挑战是缺乏合适的模型校准观测约束和过去表面气候的准确历史，这些可以作为冰盖模型模拟中的表面强迫边界条件。该项目通过使用恒定年龄地层层位形式的观测数据来解决这些挑战，这些数据是通过多次穿冰雷达勘测成像的，这些数据可作为冰盖过去流动和边界条件的数据约束模型。所开发的方法将为严格的冰盖校准和初始化提供一种新颖的方法。除了针对冰盖内部数据重建过去气候的科学应用之外，实现这一目标的基础设施将向社区公开，基于开源冰盖模型。该项目将支持女性早期职业科学家过渡到独立研究职业。将状态和参数估计问题作为终端约束控制问题来解决使我们能够取得几项关键的科学进展：（i）开发一个随时间演化的 GrIS与年龄层数据中封装的时间历史一致的状态； (ii) 联合反演一组最佳模型参数（即模型校准）和与底层冰盖演化一致的时变最佳表面强迫（即重建一致的气候强迫历史）； (iii) 对全新世时期的冰盖进行真实的瞬态模拟，形成可作为预测的平衡初始条件的当前状态，并且预计初始化冲击或人工模型漂移将最小，通过建设。实现所提出的工作的一个关键计算要素是开发冰盖模型的时间相关伴随模型，该模型能够演化内部冰河时代结构。我们建议通过开源工具 OpenAD 的算法微分 (AD) 来实现这一目标，并将其应用于 POly Thermal Ice Sheets (SICOPOLIS) 模型的模拟 COde。这种对过去冰流和格陵兰冰盖边界条件的重建对于重现观测到的年龄（来自冰芯）是必要的，也使我们能够以更精细的时空细节来测试过去重要气候事件的发生，包括全新世气候最适宜和小冰期。通过本州估计准确地如何、何时、何地恢复这些事件将揭示 GrIS 如何应对整体和区域气候的快速变化。该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并被认为值得支持通过使用基金会的智力优点和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估。

项目成果

SICOPOLIS-AD v2: tangent linear and adjoint modelingframework for ice sheet modeling enabled by automatic differentiationtool Tapenade

SICOPOLIS-AD v2：由自动微分工具 Tapenade 支持的冰盖建模的切线线性和伴随建模框架

• DOI: 10.21105/joss.04679
• 发表时间: 2023-03
• 期刊: Journal of Open Source Software
• 作者: Gaikwad, Shreyas Sunil;Hascoet, Laurent;Narayanan, Sri Hari;Curry;Greve, Ralf;Heimbach, Patrick
• 通讯作者: Heimbach, Patrick

SICOPOLIS-AD v1: an open-source adjoint modeling framework for ice sheet simulation enabled by the algorithmic differentiation tool OpenAD

SICOPOLIS-AD v1：由算法微分工具 OpenAD 支持的冰盖模拟开源伴随建模框架

• DOI: 10.5194/gmd-13-1845-2020
• 发表时间: 2020-01
• 期刊: Geoscientific Model Development
• 影响因子: 5.1
• 作者: Logan, Liz C.;Narayanan, Sri Hari;Greve, Ralf;Heimbach, Patrick
• 通讯作者: Heimbach, Patrick