Collaborative Research: A Unified Framework for Optimal Public Debt Management

合作研究：最优公共债务管理的统一框架

• 批准号: 1918748
• 负责人: David Evans
• 金额: $ 12.76万
• 依托单位: University of Oregon Eugene
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2019-08-01 至 2024-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1918748&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Unified; Framework; Optimal

AbstractGovernment debt has an important role in an economy as decisions on government debt issuance has implications on fiscal policy and the tax system. When issuing debt, government must decide on how to rebalance its existing debt, how much new debt to issue and the duration of borrowing - between short and long-term borrowing. These decisions must be made by considering the state of the economy, including the growth rate, employment levels, inflation, interest rates and the impact of government debt issuance on bond markets. The goal of this project is to develop a framework to examine current public debt management practices and suggest ways to improve them. The project will deliver easy to use and easy to implement formulas that prescribe the optimal maturity and the optimal frequency of public debt rebalancing along with mathematical models that illustrate their usefulness.Managing public debt is a crucial policy issue that concerns economists, policymakers, and the general public. There is limited practical guidance on the types of debt securities government should issue and the frequency with which a government should rebalance its debt portfolio. This proposal aims to develop a unified framework for optimal public debt management that integrates the public debt literature that imposes commitment, the literature on debt without commitment in closed and open economies, and the finance literature on optimal portfolio theory. Methodologically, the proposal will expand the "sufficient statistics" approach that is widely used in public finance. The key deliverables will consist of formulas for optimal portfolios that summarize the normative prescriptions from large classes of models in terms of a small number of empirical moments. These moments will be estimated and used as inputs in a quantitative structural model of debt management that can be used for joint analysis of debt and tax policies.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

由于政府债务发行的决定对财政政策和税收制度具有影响，Abstractgrovernment债务在经济中起着重要作用。发行债务时，政府必须决定如何重新平衡其现有债务，发行多少新债务以及借贷期限 - 在短期和长期借款之间。 这些决定必须通过考虑经济状况来做出，包括增长率，就业水平，通货膨胀，利率以及政府债务发行对债券市场的影响。该项目的目的是开发一个框架来检查当前的公共债务管理实践，并提出改善它们的方法。该项目将提供易于使用和易于实施的公式，这些公式规定了最佳的成熟度和最佳的公共债务重新平衡频率以及数学模型，以说明其有用性。管理公共债务是一个至关重要的政策问题，涉及经济学家，政策制定者和公众。关于债务证券政府应发行的债务证券类型以及政府应重新平衡其债务组合的频率的实际指导有限。该提案旨在为最佳的公共债务管理开发一个统一的框架，以整合施加承诺的公共债务文献，债务上没有承诺的文献，而封闭和开放经济体的承诺以及有关最佳投资组合理论的财务文献。从方法上讲，该提案将扩大广泛用于公共财政的“足够统计”方法。关键可交付成果将包括用于最佳投资组合的公式，这些公式以少数经验时刻来概述大量模型的规范处方。 这些时刻将被估算并用作债务管理的定量结构模型中的投入，该模型可用于债务和税收政策的联合分析。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并被认为是值得通过基金会的知识分子优点评估来进行支持的，并具有更广泛的影响标准。