PREEVENTS Track 2: Collaborative Research: COEXIST: COnnected EXtremes In Space and Time

预防事件轨道 2：协作研究：共存：空间和时间上的互联极端

基本信息

批准号：
1854761
负责人：
Daniel Swain
金额：
$ 34.54万
依托单位：
University of California-Los Angeles
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Continuing Grant
财政年份：
2019
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2019-06-01 至 2024-05-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1854761&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
PREEVENTS Track Collaborative Research COEXIST

项目摘要

The project goal is to improve our ability to withstand extreme floods and droughts. A single flood or drought event can cause problems, yet the devastation wrought by a series of back-to-back floods or dramatic swings between drought and flood conditions can be much worse. California, for example, is all too familiar with dangerous mudslides triggered by flash flooding on top of burn scars left over from prior drought conditions. The central U.S. is also no stranger to back-to-back expansive flooding episodes that drive destructive surges down the major rivers. These grouped events seriously test our ability to manage flood and drought and ensure protection of lives and property. Scientists do not fully understand the weather conditions that cause these grouped events. Nor do they know how good we are at forecasting them 2 weeks to 2 months in advance. Experts from insurance, reservoir design and emergency responders will gather with scientists to identify how these grouped events cause problems. This knowledge will then be used to craft the research necessary to support solutions. New scientific discoveries are anticipated about what causes floods and droughts to group together across the U.S. This new knowledge will then be used to develop ways to forecasts these grouped events 2 weeks to 2 months in advance. These new forecasting approaches will support our ability to prepare and reduce impacts. Through supporting enhanced protection of lives and livelihoods this project ultimately strengthens our national welfare and economic competitiveness. In addition to new science and better forecasts the project has a number of other potential benefits. The integration of research and education is central to the project, and will be achieved through the training and career development of the project team and one graduate student. The project is also committed to diversity and inclusion. Participation of underrepresented groups will be broadened through the mentoring of students underrepresented in science each summer. To promote additional scientific research the project will adhere to, and promote, best practices in open, accessible and reproducible science. The project will also engage non-scientists through a series of media interviews, newspaper/TV appearances, and science writing regarding the special risks to humans and environment posed by connected floods and droughts, and strategies to reduce their impacts. The work is structured around three objectives: 1) Identify potentially connective regimes and formulate hypotheses about the underlying shared processes by applying statistical models to observation-based datasets of U.S. extreme wet and dry events; 2) Advance the hypotheses by conducting a targeted suite of multi-scale dynamical model experiments for at least six instances of connected events; 3) Understand shared predictability sources by developing and testing a suite of prototype sub-seasonal to seasonal statistical-dynamical forecast systems. Potential contributions include understanding the shared physical processes connecting extreme wet and dry events, demonstrating extended forecast capacity for wet and dry extremes using forecast systems that emphasize connecting processes, and transforming how scientists conceptualize extreme events. Key project outcomes include a physical-process based definition of connected extremes, and a novel generalized research framework that co-advances shared-process understanding and forecast capacity.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

项目目标是提高我们承受极端洪水和干旱的能力。一次洪水或干旱事件可能会引起问题，但是在干旱和洪水条件之间进行一系列背靠背洪水或戏剧性波动所造成的破坏可能会更糟。例如，加利福尼亚州对危险的泥石流非常熟悉，危险的泥石流是由于先前干旱条件下留下的燃烧疤痕而触发的。美国中部也对背靠背泛滥的洪水发作并不陌生，这些洪水泛滥，这使破坏性的河流沿着主要河流越来越多。这些分组活动认真测试了我们管理洪水和干旱并确保保护生命和财产的能力。科学家不完全了解导致这些分组事件的天气状况。他们也不知道我们预测他们有多好2周到2个月。来自保险，水库设计和应急人员的专家将与科学家聚集，以确定这些分组事件如何引起问题。然后，这些知识将用于制定支持解决方案所需的研究。预期的是，新的科学发现是什么导致洪水和干旱在美国融合在一起的新知识，然后将使用新知识来开发方法，以预测这些分组的事件2周到2个月。这些新的预测方法将支持我们准备和减少影响的能力。通过支持增强对生活和生计的保护，这个项目最终增强了我们的民族福利和经济竞争力。除了新科学和更好的预测外，该项目还具有许多其他潜在的好处。研究和教育的整合是该项目的核心，将通过项目团队和一名研究生的培训和职业发展实现。该项目还致力于多样性和包容性。每年夏天，通过对科学领域的学生不足的指导，代表性不足的团体的参与将得到扩大。为了促进进一步的科学研究，该项目将遵守并促进开放，可访问和可再现科学的最佳实践。该项目还将通过一系列媒体访谈，报纸/电视露面以及有关人类的特殊风险以及互联的洪水和干旱带来的特殊风险以及减少影响的策略来吸引非科学家。这项工作是围绕三个目标结构的：1）确定潜在的结缔组织，并通过将统计模型应用于基于观察的美国极端潮湿和干燥事件的数据集，并提出有关基础共享过程的假设； 2）通过对至少六个连接事件实例进行靶向多尺度动力学模型实验的靶向套件来推进假设； 3）通过开发和测试季节性统计范围基本预测系统的一套原型，了解共同的可预测源。潜在的贡献包括了解连接极端潮湿和干燥事件的共同物理过程，展示了使用强调连接过程的预测系统的潮湿和干燥极端系统的扩展预测能力，并改变了科学家如何概念化极端事件。关键项目的结果包括基于物理过程的相关极端定义，以及一个新颖的广义研究框架，该框架共享过程的理解和预测能力。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并被认为是值得通过基金会的知识分子优点和更广泛的审查标准来通过评估来获得支持的。

项目成果

期刊论文数量（8）

专著数量（0）

科研奖励数量（0）

会议论文数量（0）

专利数量（0）

Climate change is narrowing and shifting prescribed fire windows in western United States

气候变化正在缩小并改变美国西部规定的防火窗

DOI：
10.1038/s43247-023-00993-1
发表时间：
2023
期刊：
Communications Earth & Environment
影响因子：
7.9
作者：
Swain, Daniel L.;Abatzoglou, John T.;Kolden, Crystal;Shive, Kristen;Kalashnikov, Dmitri A.;Singh, Deepti;Smith, Edward
通讯作者：
Smith, Edward

Spatial Dependence of Floods Shaped by Spatiotemporal Variations in Meteorological and Land‐Surface Processes