RUI: Collaborative Research: Assessments and Stances Regarding the Uncertainty of (Un)Desired Outcomes

RUI：协作研究：关于（不）期望结果的不确定性的评估和立场

• 批准号: 1851766
• 负责人: Andrew Smith
• 金额: $ 13.54万
• 依托单位: Appalachian State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2019-06-01 至 2024-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1851766&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: RUI; Collaborative; Research; Assessments; Stances

Inaccuracies in expectations and predictions about future outcomes can ruin decision making and optimal planning. One pernicious type of inaccuracy is an optimism bias, in which preferred outcomes are viewed as more likely than warranted and/or unpreferred outcomes are viewed as less likely than warranted. Optimism biases lead to problematic individual behaviors like unwise risk taking and over-purchasing, human tragedies like deaths from engineering failures and societally important phenomena like stock market bubbles. Motivational goals are often assumed to underlie optimism biases but there is an inadequate understanding of when different goals impact optimism, including goals that have the potential to reduce optimism and promote accuracy. In fact, major theories assume that preferences for outcomes and expectations about the outcomes are independent, which is inconsistent with some empirical findings. The proposed research addresses this discrepancy. The research is structured by a novel Goal-Biased Expectations Framework, which posits contextual features that shape the balance between two orientations that a person can take toward forming expectations. The balance of orientations ultimately determines whether and how goals shape expectations. The framework is also useful for developing steps to debias or reduce overoptimism and promote accuracy among professional forecasters and the public. Debiasing overoptimism can yield improved predictions and ultimately better planning, preparation, and outcomes across many contexts (e.g., financial, health, security). Three lines of experiments will be conducted. One line will examine the scope of, and processes responsible for, a crucial difference in how measures of expectations are affected by outcome desirability or preference. Past research findings have returned quite different indicators of the extent to which outcome desirability has a biasing influence, but these differences might align with a distinction between two ways in which expectations are commonly solicited in studies and in everyday contexts. A second line will address how types of available information influence the desirability bias. One surprising possibility is that as information becomes more clear, people's orientation and goals shift in a manner that produces more bias rather than less. A third line will test a novel debiasing intervention for overoptimism. Participants in the studies will include sports fans, owners of homes in floodplains, and patients?three groups known to exhibit overoptimism. All of the proposed work will inform the validity of the Goal-Biased Expectations framework. The studies on this grant will involve collaboration with graduate and undergraduate students, and therefore will play important roles in their research training/education.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

对未来结果的期望和预测的不准确性会破坏决策和最佳计划。一种有害类型的不准确性是一种乐观的偏见，在这种偏见中，首选结果比保证和/或未经剥夺的结果更有可能比保证的可能性要小。 乐观偏见导致个人行为有问题，例如不明智的冒险和过度购买，人类的悲剧，例如工程失败的死亡和社会上重要的现象，例如股市泡沫。 人们通常认为动机目标是乐观偏见的基础，但是对不同目标影响乐观的理解不足，包括有可能降低乐观和促进准确性的目标。 实际上，主要理论认为，对结果的结果和期望是独立的，这与一些经验发现不一致。拟议的研究解决了这一差异。这项研究是由一个新颖的目标偏向期望框架构成的，该框架提出了上下文特征，这些特征会影响一个人可以在形成期望方面采取的两个方向之间的平衡。 方向的平衡最终决定了目标是否以及如何塑造期望。 该框架对于制定debias或降低过度解放和促进专业预测者和公众的准确性也很有用。 辩解过度占主导地位可以带来改进的预测，并最终在许多情况下（例如财务，健康，安全）进行更好的计划，准备和结果。 将进行三条实验。 一条线将检查负责结果衡量或偏好影响期望度量的衡量标准的范围和过程的范围和过程。 过去的研究发现返回了截然不同的指标，即结果可取性具有偏见的影响，但是这些差异可能与在研究和日常背景下通常会征求期望的两种方式之间的区别。 第二行将解决可用信息的类型如何影响可取性偏差。 一个令人惊讶的可能性是，随着信息变得更加清晰，人们的方向和目标以产生更多偏见而不是更少的方式改变。第三行将测试过度解放的新型伪造干预措施。 研究的参与者将包括体育迷，洪泛区的房屋所有者以及患者？三个众所周知的表现出过度的群体。所有拟议的工作都将为目标偏向期望框架的有效性提供信息。对该赠款的研究将涉及与研究生和本科生的合作，因此将在其研究培训/教育中发挥重要作用。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并被认为是值得通过基金会的知识分子和更广泛影响的评估评估标准的评估值得支持的。

项目成果

Do People Prescribe Optimism, Overoptimism, or Neither?

人们是乐观、过度乐观，还是两者都不乐观？

• DOI: 10.1177/09567976211004545
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Psychological Science
• 影响因子: 8.2
• 作者: Miller, Jane E.;Park, Inkyung;Smith, Andrew R.;Windschitl, Paul D.
• 通讯作者: Windschitl, Paul D.