Comparative assessment of potential impacts, side-effects and uncertainties of CE measures and emission-reduction efforts (ComparCE-2)

对CE措施和减排工作的潜在影响、副作用和不确定性进行比较评估（ComparCE-2）

基本信息

批准号：
236740365
负责人：
Professorin Dr. Tatiana Ilyina
金额：
--
依托单位：
Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie (MPI-M)
依托单位国家：
德国
项目类别：
Priority Programmes
财政年份：
2013
资助国家：
德国
起止时间：
2012-12-31 至 2020-12-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/236740365?language=en
关键词：
Comparative assessment potential impacts side

项目摘要

The main objective of the ComparCE project is a comprehensive assessment of the various Climate Engineering (CE) measures and emission-reduction efforts, taking into account uncertainties in the earth system model simulations on which the assessment is based. We want to address various urgent questions, that we feel are missing in the context of CE assessment so far. As a first and central step it will be investigated which assessment metrics and indicators are of importance in the CE context, and thus to the entire priority program, and how they differ from climate change assessment metrics. There has been research in this field for climate change but for the CE debate this assessment is missing. From exchanges with international CE research groups, it became clear, that a future deployment of CE would likely consist of a combination of different CE measures. Therefore in this project we address the question, of how the Earth system will react to a combination of CE measures and whether the distinct signals can still be attributed to a certain technique. In this context it will be addressed how the effectiveness of a CE measure depends on the background climate state, and how e.g. the timing of a deployment might be of relevance. Furthermore, robust patterns of changes due to CE will be investigated in order to enable regional analysis of CE impacts, as well as detection and attribution of signals of regional CE. This is of special importance since the regional climate extremes are of relevance for the local communities. This analysis will also inform the metrics finding process. Additionally, termination of CE will be addressed in the context of the rates of changes in the earth system to inform biological impact assessment studies. Finally, since the only tools to assess climatic responses to CE techniques are models, we feel that an important contribution to the CE debate is a thorough assessment of key model uncertainties. These will be quantified determining changes in the probability density functions of metrics e.g. the probability of passing a certain threshold given different future scenarios. Results of this project will provide a comprehensive assessment of joint mitigation-CE scenarios under uncertainty of models, scenarios and metrics, which will be discussed iteratively with partner projects in the SPP.

比较项目的主要目标是对各种气候工程（CE）措施和减排工作的全面评估，并考虑到评估所基于的地球系统模型模拟中的不确定性。我们想解决各种紧急问题，我们认为到目前为止在CE评估的背景下缺少。作为第一和中心步骤，将研究哪些评估指标和指标在CE环境中至关重要，因此在整个优先级计划中以及它们与气候变化评估指标的差异。在该领域有关于气候变化的研究，但在CE辩论中，这种评估丢失了。通过与国际CE研究小组的交流，很明显，未来的CE部署可能包括不同的CE措施的组合。因此，在这个项目中，我们解决了一个问题，即地球系统将如何对CE措施的组合做出反应，以及是否仍然可以将不同的信号归因于某种技术。在这种情况下，将解决CE度量的有效性如何取决于背景气候状态，以及例如部署的时机可能是相关的。此外，将研究因CE引起的强大变化模式，以便对CE影响进行区域分析，以及区域CE信号的检测和归因。这是非常重要的，因为区域极端极端与当地社区有关。该分析还将为指标查找过程提供信息。此外，CE的终止将在地球系统变化速率的背景下解决，以告知生物影响评估研究。最后，由于评估气候对CE技术的唯一工具是模型，因此我们认为对CE辩论的重要贡献是对关键模型不确定性的彻底评估。这些将被量化确定指标概率密度函数的变化，例如在未来的情况下，通过一定阈值的概率。该项目的结果将在模型，场景和指标的不确定性下对联合缓解措施方案进行全面评估，这将与SPP中的合作伙伴项目进行迭代讨论。