Comparative assessment of potential impacts, side-effects and uncertainties of CE measures and emission-reduction efforts (ComparCE-2)

对CE措施和减排工作的潜在影响、副作用和不确定性进行比较评估（ComparCE-2）

基本信息

批准号：
236740365
负责人：
Professorin Dr. Tatiana Ilyina
金额：
--
依托单位：
Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie (MPI-M)
依托单位国家：
德国
项目类别：
Priority Programmes
财政年份：
2013
资助国家：
德国
起止时间：
2012-12-31 至 2020-12-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/236740365?language=en
关键词：
Comparative assessment potential impacts side

项目摘要

The main objective of the ComparCE project is a comprehensive assessment of the various Climate Engineering (CE) measures and emission-reduction efforts, taking into account uncertainties in the earth system model simulations on which the assessment is based. We want to address various urgent questions, that we feel are missing in the context of CE assessment so far. As a first and central step it will be investigated which assessment metrics and indicators are of importance in the CE context, and thus to the entire priority program, and how they differ from climate change assessment metrics. There has been research in this field for climate change but for the CE debate this assessment is missing. From exchanges with international CE research groups, it became clear, that a future deployment of CE would likely consist of a combination of different CE measures. Therefore in this project we address the question, of how the Earth system will react to a combination of CE measures and whether the distinct signals can still be attributed to a certain technique. In this context it will be addressed how the effectiveness of a CE measure depends on the background climate state, and how e.g. the timing of a deployment might be of relevance. Furthermore, robust patterns of changes due to CE will be investigated in order to enable regional analysis of CE impacts, as well as detection and attribution of signals of regional CE. This is of special importance since the regional climate extremes are of relevance for the local communities. This analysis will also inform the metrics finding process. Additionally, termination of CE will be addressed in the context of the rates of changes in the earth system to inform biological impact assessment studies. Finally, since the only tools to assess climatic responses to CE techniques are models, we feel that an important contribution to the CE debate is a thorough assessment of key model uncertainties. These will be quantified determining changes in the probability density functions of metrics e.g. the probability of passing a certain threshold given different future scenarios. Results of this project will provide a comprehensive assessment of joint mitigation-CE scenarios under uncertainty of models, scenarios and metrics, which will be discussed iteratively with partner projects in the SPP.

ComparCE项目的主要目标是对各种气候工程（CE）措施和减排工作进行综合评估，同时考虑到评估所依据的地球系统模型模拟的不确定性。我们希望解决迄今为止在 CE 评估中缺失的各种紧迫问题。作为第一步也是核心步骤，我们将调查哪些评估指标和指标在 CE 背景下以及整个优先计划中很重要，以及它们与气候变化评估指标有何不同。在这一领域已经有针对气候变化的研究，但在 CE 辩论中缺少这种评估。通过与国际 CE 研究小组的交流，我们可以清楚地看出，未来的 CE 部署很可能由不同 CE 措施的组合组成。因此，在这个项目中，我们解决了这样的问题：地球系统将如何对 CE 测量的组合做出反应，以及不同的信号是否仍然可以归因于某种技术。在这种情况下，将讨论 CE 措施的有效性如何取决于背景气候状态，以及如何例如。部署的时间可能具有相关性。此外，还将研究由 CE 引起的稳健变化模式，以便能够对 CE 影响进行区域分析，以及区域 CE 信号的检测和归因。这一点特别重要，因为区域极端气候与当地社区息息相关。该分析还将为指标查找过程提供信息。此外，CE 的终止将在地球系统变化率的背景下解决，以便为生物影响评估研究提供信息。最后，由于评估 CE 技术气候响应的唯一工具是模型，因此我们认为对 CE 辩论的重要贡献是对关键模型不确定性的彻底评估。这些将被量化，以确定指标的概率密度函数的变化，例如在不同的未来场景下通过某个阈值的概率。该项目的结果将在模型、情景和指标不确定的情况下对联合缓解-CE情景进行全面评估，并将与SPP中的合作伙伴项目进行迭代讨论。