RII Track-4: Next Generation Climate Modeling of Winter Climate in the United States

RII Track-4：美国冬季气候的下一代气候模型

基本信息

批准号：
1832959
负责人：
Elizabeth Burakowski
金额：
$ 14.73万
依托单位：
University of New Hampshire
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
2018
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2018-10-01 至 2023-03-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1832959&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
RII Track Next Generation Climate

项目摘要

Nontechnical DescriptionAcross most of the contiguous United States, winter is warming faster than summer, and the warming is more pronounced in seasonally snow-covered regions. Accompanying the winter warming trends are fewer days with snow cover, reductions in snow water equivalent, an increased proportion of winter precipitation falling as rain instead of snow, and more frequent mid-winter thaw events. The rapid pace of winter climate change is hypothesized to have large impacts on the natural functioning of ecosystems and corresponding ecosystem services. The vision of the proposed project is to directly address the need for high-resolution, comprehensive historical and future climate model simulations to investigate future winter climate under higher and lower emissions scenarios across the United States. The PI will collaborate with scientists at the National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado, a premier, internationally recognized center for climate modeling. The project outcomes will provide high quality, foundational climate model simulations to advance understanding of winter climate impacts on ecosystem services, engage external partners in the winter tourism industry, and support competitive research at the University of New Hampshire, including in the areas of crop and hydrological modeling. Technical DescriptionThe central hypothesis of this project is that changes in winter climate will have profound impacts on a suite of ecosystem services across the contiguous United States as climate responds to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases. The proposed project will directly address this hypothesis through a next-generation climate modeling effort to investigate future winter climate under a range of shared socioeconomic pathways across the United States. The foundational high-resolution dataset with the Variable Resolution Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM) will add value to future projections of winter snow conditions in the United States at a fraction of computational cost of uniform high-resolution global simulations. In addition, they will permit detailed investigation of the influence of major teleconnections on future snow projections over complex topography in future projects. The proposed work will support competitive research at the University of New Hampshire, including agricultural, hydrological and infrastructure modeling efforts. Results will be shared with three key audiences: K-12 classrooms, institutes of higher education, and the stakeholders in the winter tourism industry. The project complements ongoing outreach efforts through community engagement with the winter sports community and a citizen science snow measurement network. The work will be broadly disseminated through public and school presentations, in addition to traditional channels at academic workshops and meetings.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

非技术描述在大多数连续的美国，冬季的变暖速度比夏季快，并且在季节性雪地覆盖的地区变暖更为明显。伴随着冬季变暖趋势的日子较少，雪覆盖，雪水减少，冬季降水的比例增加如雨而不是雪，以及更频繁的冬季融化事件。假设冬季气候变化的快速速度对生态系统的自然功能和相应的生态系统服务产生了很大影响。拟议项目的愿景是直接满足对高分辨率，全面的历史和未来气候模型模拟的需求，以调查美国较高和较低的排放情况下的未来冬季气候。 PI将与科罗拉多州博尔德国家大气研究中心（NCAR）的科学家合作，科罗拉多州博尔德，这是国际公认的气候建模中心。该项目成果将提供高质量的基础气候模型模拟，以提高人们对冬季气候对生态系统服务的影响，与冬季旅游业的外部合作伙伴的影响，并支持新罕布什尔大学的竞争研究，包括作物和水文建模领域。技术描述该项目的中心假设是，随着气候响应增长的温室气体，冬季气候变化将对整个连续美国的生态系统服务产生深远的影响。拟议的项目将通过下一代气候建模工作直接解决这一假设，以调查美国各地共同的社会经济途径的未来冬季气候。具有可变分辨率社区地球系统模型（VR-CESM）的基础高分辨率数据集将为美国的未来冬季降雪预测增加价值，而均匀高分辨率全球模拟的计算成本的一部分。此外，它们还将详细研究主要的远程连接对未来项目中复杂地形的未来降雪预测的影响。拟议的工作将支持新罕布什尔大学的竞争研究，包括农业，水文和基础设施建模工作。结果将与三个关键受众分享：K-12教室，高等教育学院以及冬季旅游业的利益相关者。该项目通过社区与冬季体育社区和公民科学雪测量网络进行社区参与来补充持续的推广工作。除了在学术研讨会和会议上的传统渠道外，这项工作还将通过公共和学校演讲大致传播。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并且使用基金会的知识分子优点和更广泛的影响审查标准，认为值得通过评估来获得支持。

项目成果

期刊论文数量（3）

专著数量（0）

科研奖励数量（0）

会议论文数量（0）

专利数量（0）

Reforestation and surface cooling in temperate zones: Mechanisms and implications

DOI：
10.1111/gcb.15069
发表时间：
2020-03
期刊：
Global Change Biology
影响因子：
11.6
作者：
Quan Zhang;M. Barnes;M. Benson;E. Burakowski;A. Oishi;A. Ouimette;Rebecca Sanders‐DeMott;P. Stoy;M. Wenzel;L. Xiong;K. Yi;K. Novick
通讯作者：
Quan Zhang;M. Barnes;M. Benson;E. Burakowski;A. Oishi;A. Ouimette;Rebecca Sanders‐DeMott;P. Stoy;M. Wenzel;L. Xiong;K. Yi;K. Novick

Future of Winter in Northeastern North America: Climate Indicators Portray Warming and Snow Loss That Will Impact Ecosystems and Communities