Collaborative Research: Uncertainty in predictions of 21st century ocean biogeochemical change

合作研究：21世纪海洋生物地球化学变化预测的不确定性

• 批准号: 1818501
• 负责人: Galen McKinley
• 金额: $ 19.71万
• 依托单位: Columbia University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2017-12-01 至 2020-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1818501&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Uncertainty; predictions; 21st

The biogeochemistry of the oceans is undergoing large-scale changes due to anthropogenic climate change. Recent research suggests these changes are occurring significantly on regional scales, but due to model uncertainties, it is difficult to constrain the difference between anthropogenic and natural influences. In studying climate change and its effect on ocean biogeochemistry in the future, it is crucial to be able to distinguish between these influences; therefore, it is critical to identify and quantify the uncertainty in Earth System Models (ESMs). The researchers will use output from Community Earth System Model (CESM) and models participating in the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to isolate prediction uncertainty due to 1) internal variability, 2) model structure, and 3) emission scenario. This research will bridge an existing gap between Earth System Models and observational studies to assess how climate change will influence ocean biogeochemistry. Additionally, this project will support an early-career scientist and a graduate student, and the researchers are dedicated to mentoring undergraduate students through various programs at Colorado University - Boulder, National Center for Atmospheric Research, and the University of Wisconsin. Earth System Model (ESM) simulations used to predict future changes in ocean biogeochemistry attributed to either natural or anthropogenic influences suffer from uncertainties, particularly on regional scales. This is problematic because, as the ocean continues to undergo large-scale change under the current climate, it is crucial to have an accurate predictor of the future and to be able to delineate between natural and anthropogenic forcing. This research aims to quantify the uncertainty on three levels: uncertainty due to internal variability, model structure, and emission scenario. Using output from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and models in the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), this study will evaluate the degree to which uncertainty has changed with newer models. Additionally, observations from global databased, satellites, and time-series sites will be used to compare models and assess the varying levels of skill in predicting the biogeochemistry of a region. The researchers also plan to break down the various components of the driving mechanisms behind prediction uncertainty, so that future models can begin to take these factors into account.

由于人为气候变化，海洋生物地球化学正在发生大规模变化。最近的研究表明，这些变化在区域尺度上显着发生，但是由于模型的不确定性，很难限制人为和自然影响之间的差异。在研究气候变化及其对海洋生物地球化学的影响时，能够区分这些影响至关重要。因此，至关重要的是识别和量化地球系统模型（ESMS）中的不确定性。研究人员将使用社区地球系统模型（CESM）的输出和参与第五耦合模型对比项目（CMIP5）的模型来隔离由于1）内部变异性，2）模型结构和3）发射方案的隔离预测不确定性。这项研究将弥合地球系统模型与观察性研究之间的现有差距，以评估气候变化将如何影响海洋生物地球化学。 此外，该项目将支持早期的科学家和研究生，研究人员致力于通过科罗拉多大学 - 博尔德，国家大气研究中心和威斯康星大学的各种课程指导本科生。地球系统模型（ESM）模拟用于预测海洋生物地球化学的未来变化归因于自然或人为影响的影响，尤其是在区域尺度上。这是有问题的，因为随着海洋在当前气候下继续发生大规模变化，至关重要的是对未来的准确预测指标并能够在自然和人为强迫之间描述。这项研究旨在量化三个级别的不确定性：由于内部变异性，模型结构和排放方案而引起的不确定性。使用社区地球系统模型（CESM）的输出和第五耦合模型对比项目（CMIP5）中的模型，本研究将评估不确定性随着较新的模型改变的程度。此外，将使用全球数据库，卫星和时间序列站点的观察来比较模型并评估预测地区生物地球化学的不同技能水平。研究人员还计划分解预测不确定性背后驾驶机制的各个组成部分，以便未来的模型可以开始考虑这些因素。