Collaborative Research: P2C2 -- Connecting Common Era climate and sea level variability along the Eastern North American coastline

合作研究：P2C2——连接北美东部海岸线的共同时代气候和海平面变化

• 批准号: 1805029
• 负责人: Christopher Little
• 金额: $ 19.8万
• 依托单位: Atmospheric and Environmental Research Inc
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2018-06-01 至 2021-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1805029&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; P2C2; Connecting; Common

Sea level along the eastern North American coastline is rising faster than global sea level and is expected to accelerate dramatically over the 21st century. The uncertainty and societal impact of this acceleration underscores the need for an improved understanding of relationships between regional sea level and climate. High-resolution sea level proxies spanning the past ~2,000 years (the "Common Era") reveal century-scale, decimeter-amplitude (up to ~20-cm), variability along the east coast associated with changes in dynamic sea level (DSL). These changes offer a unique benchmark for climate models, and the closest observational analog for climate-driven sea level change expected in the 21st century. This project will employ statistical and dynamical models to improve the scientific understanding of Common Era sea level changes along the east coast and their relationship with climate. The research team will leverage this knowledge to inform projections of 21st century DSL change and the ability of current-generation climate models to capture those changes, in turn informing coastal resilience efforts along the high-risk eastern North American coast. The project will provide funding and opportunities for an early career scientist and a graduate student to develop a diverse set of skills and collaborators in paleoclimate, climate modeling, and weather and climate risk assessment.The project team will confront the sparsity of the proxy record and the limitations of current-generation paleoclimate simulations by testing hypotheses about the drivers of sea level variability using a broad statistically- and dynamically-based modeling strategy. Project tasks include: (1) a rigorous assessment of the robustness of regional DSL reconstructions generated with a hierarchical spatio-temporal statistical framework; (2) leveraging the statistical framework to assess linkages between DSL and other climate indices (e.g., North Atlantic Oscillation, Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, sea surface temperature and salinity, Intertropical Convergence Zone position); and (3) conducting and analyzing coupled climate model simulations. Climate model simulations will be forced by proxy-derived surface fluxes and validated by a synthesis of complementary climate reconstructions. The simulations will reveal the dynamical mechanisms underlying correlations found in reconstructions and demonstrate whether relationships observed in the instrumental record persist over multidecadal-to-centennial timescales. The research is expected to lead to a more complete interpretation of Common Era sea level and climate variability.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

北美海岸线沿线的海平面比全球海平面上升快，预计将在21世纪急剧加速。这种加速的不确定性和社会影响强调了人们对区域海平面与气候之间关系的了解的需求。高分辨率的海平面代理跨越了过去〜2,000年（“共同时代”）揭示了世纪尺度，分分幅度（最高约20厘米），东海岸的可变性与动态海平面变化有关（DSL ）。这些变化为气候模型提供了独特的基准，并且是21世纪预期的气候驱动海平面变化的最接近的观察类似物。该项目将采用统计和动态模型来改善对东海岸公共海平面变化及其与气候的关系的科学理解。研究团队将利用这一知识来告知21世纪DSL变化的预测以及当前代生成气候模型捕获这些变化的能力，进而为沿北美东部高危的沿海弹性工作提供了信息。该项目将为早期的职业科学家和研究生提供资金和机会，以开发各种各样的技能和合作者，并在古气候，气候建模以及天气和气候风险评估中。通过使用广泛的统计和动态的建模策略测试有关海平面变异性驱动因素的假设，通过测试有关海平面变异驱动因素的假设的局限性。项目任务包括：（1）对具有层次时空统计框架产生的区域DSL重建的鲁棒性的严格评估； （2）利用统计框架来评估DSL与其他气候指数之间的联系（例如，北大西洋振荡，大西洋子午倾斜循环，海面温度和盐度，自动化收敛区位置）； （3）进行和分析耦合气候模型模拟。气候模型模拟将由代理衍生的表面通量强迫，并通过互补气候重建的合成来验证。这些仿真将揭示重建中发现的动力学机制，并证明在仪器记录中观察到的关系是否持续在多年到百年纪念的时间范围内。预计这项研究将导致对普通时代海平面和气候变化的更完整解释。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并且使用基金会的知识分子优点和更广泛的影响标准，被认为值得通过评估来获得支持。

项目成果

How is New England Coastal Sea Level Related to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26° N?

新英格兰沿海海平面与北纬 26° 的大西洋经向翻转环流有何关系？

• DOI: 10.1029/2019gl083073
• 发表时间: 2019
• 期刊: Geophysical Research Letters
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Piecuch, Christopher G.;Dangendorf, Sönke;Gawarkiewicz, Glen G.;Little, Christopher M.;Ponte, Rui M.;Yang, Jiayan
• 通讯作者: Yang, Jiayan

New Jersey's Rising Seas and Changing Coastal Storms

新泽西州的海平面上升和不断变化的沿海风暴

• DOI: 10.7282/t3-eeqr-mq48
• 发表时间: 2019
• 期刊: Report of the 2019 Science and Technical Advisory Panel
• 作者: Kopp, Robert E

A Review of the Role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and Associated Climate Impacts

• DOI: 10.1029/2019rg000644
• 发表时间: 2019-06
• 期刊: Reviews of Geophysics
• 影响因子: 25.2
• 作者: Rong‐Hua Zhang;R. Sutton;G. Danabasoglu;Young‐Oh Kwon;R. Marsh;S. Yeager;D. Amrhein;C. Little

The Relationship Between U.S. East Coast Sea Level and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: A Review

• DOI: 10.1029/2019jc015152
• 发表时间: 2019-09
• 期刊: Journal of Geophysical Research. Oceans
• 作者: C. Little;A. Hu;C. Hughes;G. McCarthy;C. Piecuch;R. Ponte;M. Thomas

North American East Coast Sea Level Exhibits High Power and Spatiotemporal Complexity on Decadal Timescales

北美东海岸海平面在十年时间尺度上表现出高强度和时空复杂性

• DOI: 10.1029/2021gl093675
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Geophysical Research Letters
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Little, Christopher M.;Piecuch, Christopher G.;Ponte, Rui M.
• 通讯作者: Ponte, Rui M.