INFEWS: US-China-Quantifying complex adaptive FEW systems with a coupled agent-based modeling framework

INFEWS：使用基于耦合代理的建模框架来量化复杂的自适应 FEW 系统

• 批准号: 1804560
• 负责人: Yi-Chen Yang
• 金额: $ 49.99万
• 依托单位: Lehigh University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2018-07-01 至 2023-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1804560&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: INFEWS; US; China; Quantifying; complex

With growing populations and economic development, the challenges of water, energy, and food security, as well as their inter-relations, have risen to the forefront as global concerns. When the scale of the problem is reduced to a regional level like a large river basin, nuances across these challenges emerge. This is because the basin-scale food, energy, and water (FEW) systems are essentially a coupled natural-human complex system of systems and should be collectively denoted as FEW nexus. Within the nexus both natural processes (e.g., rainfall-runoff for water supply) and human behavior (e.g., energy and food commodity markets and policies) are interdependent at hierarchical spatiotemporal scales. There are significant knowledge and capability gaps associated with this FEW nexus, particularly in the context of data and modeling. This project addresses these gaps by developing a new mathematical modeling framework to decipher the complex, adaptive food-energy-water system of systems (FEWSoS). This modeling tool can ensure policy coherence and coordination among stakeholders to build synergies and generate co-benefits (e.g., improving security in water, energy and food sectors simultaneously) that enable us to address the future challenges across multiple sectors. The project will leverage Mountaintop Initiative at Lehigh University for educational outreach by allowing engagement of small groups of interdisciplinary projects. They will also engage undergraduate students in the ADVANCE program and the BALANCE program in the STEM disciplines. They will also engage an international student from Ethiopia as a part of this project. Finally, the project will have a kickoff and wrap-up meeting between the US and China investigators. The proposed modeling framework will be centering on an agent-based representation of the linkages among food, energy and water sub-systems and between human and physical systems across multiple temporal and spatial scales. The three main research objectives are: (1) Constructing a comprehensive knowledge platform with a set of quantitative metrics for sustainability, vulnerability, and resilience of a FEWSoS via inventory and evaluation of both public and local data and information from the food, energy and water sectors; (2) Developing a spatially and temporally distributed modeling framework that analyzes the food-energy-water interactions in a given FEWSoS from local to river-basin scales. The interactions among food, energy, and water will be quantified with the aid of a hydro-agro-economic model (food module), an energy production cost model (energy module) and a process-based hydrologic model (water module); (3) Testing the utility of the developed FEWSoS modeling framework over two international river basins in the U.S. and China: the Columbia River and the Mekong River to elucidate similarities and differences in these FEWSoS, hence generating new understanding that is transferable to other river basins. PIs diverse backgrounds and experiences in water resources management, hydrologic modeling, energy market modeling, and hydro-agro-economic modeling from both the U.S. and China teams provide an excellent opportunity for graduate students and postdocs to work together across disciplines. The kick-off meeting in the US and the wrap-up meeting in China will allow all PIs to engage stakeholders from the beginning till the end of the project and make sure the model development echoes real world needs.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

随着人口的增长和经济的发展，水、能源和粮食安全及其相互关系的挑战已成为全球关注的首要问题。当问题的规模缩小到像大河流域这样的区域水平时，这些挑战的细微差别就会显现出来。这是因为流域规模的食物、能源和水（FEW）系统本质上是一个耦合的自然-人类复杂系统，应统称为FEW联系。在这种联系中，自然过程（例如供水的降雨径流）和人类行为（例如能源和食品商品市场和政策）在分层时空尺度上是相互依存的。与这少数关系相关的知识和能力存在重大差距，特别是在数据和建模方面。该项目通过开发新的数学建模框架来破译复杂的、自适应的食物-能源-水系统（FEWSoS），从而解决这些差距。该建模工具可以确保利益相关者之间的政策一致性和协调，以建立协同效应并产生共同效益（例如，同时改善水、能源和食品部门的安全），使我们能够应对多个部门的未来挑战。该项目将利用理海大学的 Mountaintop Initiative 进行教育推广，允许小组参与跨学科项目。他们还将让本科生参与 STEM 学科的 ADVANCE 计划和 BALANCE 计划。作为该项目的一部分，他们还将聘请一名来自埃塞俄比亚的国际学生。最后，该项目将在美国和中国调查人员之间举行启动和总结会议。拟议的建模框架将集中于基于主体的食品、能源和水子系统之间以及跨越多个时间和空间尺度的人类和物理系统之间的联系的表示。三个主要研究目标是：（1）通过对来自粮食、能源和水的公共和当地数据和信息进行清查和评估，构建一个综合知识平台，其中包含一套用于衡量 FEWSoS 可持续性、脆弱性和复原力的定量指标部门； (2) 开发一个时空分布的建模框架，分析给定 FEWSoS 中从局部到流域尺度的食物-能源-水相互作用。粮食、能源和水之间的相互作用将借助水文农业经济模型（粮食模块）、能源生产成本模型（能源模块）和基于过程的水文模型（水模块）进行量化； (3) 在美国和中国的两个国际河流流域：哥伦比亚河和湄公河上测试开发的 FEWSoS 建模框架的实用性，以阐明这些 FEWSoS 的异同，从而产生可移植到其他流域的新理解。美国和中国团队的PI在水资源管理、水文建模、能源市场建模和水利农业经济建模方面拥有不同的背景和经验，为研究生和博士后跨学科合作提供了绝佳的机会。在美国举行的启动会议和在中国举行的总结会议将使所有 PI 从项目开始到结束都与利益相关者进行接触，并确保模型开发符合现实世界的需求。该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命和通过使用基金会的智力优点和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，该项目被认为值得支持。

项目成果

A Comprehensive Review of the Nexus of Food, Energy, and Water Systems: What the Models Tell Us

• DOI: 10.1061/(asce)wr.1943-5452.0001564
• 发表时间: 2022-06
• 期刊: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
• 影响因子: 3.1
• 作者: D. H. B. Gai;E. Shittu;Y. C. Ethan Yang;Hong‐Yi Li

Examining the Food-Energy-Water-Environment Nexus in Transboundary River Basins through a Human Dimension Lens: Columbia River Basin

• DOI: 10.1061/(asce)wr.1943-5452.0001461
• 发表时间: 2021-10
• 期刊: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
• 影响因子: 3.1
• 作者: Jiaorui Zhang;Y. Yang;Hongyi Li;E. Shittu

An investigation of coupled natural human systems using a two-way coupled agent-based modeling framework

使用基于双向耦合代理的建模框架对耦合自然人类系统进行研究

• DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2022.105451
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Environmental Modelling & Software
• 影响因子: 4.9
• 作者: Lin, Chung-Yi;Yang, Y.C. Ethan;Malek, Keyvan;Adam, Jennifer C.
• 通讯作者: Adam, Jennifer C.

Hydropower Replacement and the Nexus of Food-Energy-Water Systems: Impacts on Climate Performance

水电替代和粮食-能源-水系统的联系：对气候绩效的影响

• DOI: 10.1109/ieem50564.2021.9672812
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: 2021 IEEE International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management (IEEM
• 作者: Gai, D. Hirsh;Shittu, E.
• 通讯作者: Shittu, E.

Investing in Renewable Energy: Reconciling Regional Policy With Renewable Energy Growth

投资可再生能源：协调区域政策与可再生能源增长

• DOI: 10.1109/emr.2018.2880445
• 发表时间: 2018
• 期刊: IEEE Engineering Management Review
• 作者: Ogunrinde, Olawale;Shittu, Ekundayo;Dhanda, Kanwalroop Kathy
• 通讯作者: Dhanda, Kanwalroop Kathy