Indicators of Technological Emergence

技术新兴指标

基本信息

批准号：
1759960
负责人：
Alan Porter
金额：
$ 52.01万
依托单位：
Search Technology Inc
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
2018
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2018-04-01 至 2022-12-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1759960&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
Indicators Technological Emergence

项目摘要

Extensive ways to measure research and development activity exist, but there is a gap in being able to measure frontier research topics. This project develops new indicators of technological emergence to support researchers, research managers, businesses, and others in identifying key topics at the frontiers of science and technology. Distinguishing cutting edge research and development activities can inform strategy development and reveal new opportunities. Being able to measure emergent topics additionally enables sharper research program assessment. Indicators of which countries, organizations, or individuals are contributing most to advances in a given domain provide vital competitive technical intelligence. The project's new technological emergence indicators focus on frontier contributions to complement general science, technology, and innovation indicators. We formulate a suite of indicators, develop software routines to calculate them, and devise reports and visualizations to communicate to different audiences, including researchers, managers, and policy makers.The project implements a four-attribute model of what constitutes technological emergence. Emergent topics should evidence term novelty, persistence, and accelerating growth, plus show formation of a research community. The approach extracts records on given science and technology topics from global research publication and patent databases. The research experiments with different ways to clean and consolidate those records' topical content. Then the project devises software scripts to score topics' degree of emergence. The computational algorithm then scores actors in given research areas, such as research organizations or countries, based on the extent to which the actors work on the highly emerging topics. The makeup of the scores and how they behave is then studied through nine diversified science and technology case studies. Testing includes a series of sensitivity analyses across fields and time periods. The testing seeks to validate the emergence indicators by analyzing their performance in predicting research and development activity in a subsequent one-to-three-year period. These new technological emergence indicators will be examined in conjunction with established science and technology metrics to help assess research and development capabilities and opportunities. The project will explore ways to apply the emergence indicators, such as gauging how government funding programs advance cutting edge research topic activity, or tracking diffusion of topical content from research to patents to commercialization arenas.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

存在衡量研发活动的广泛方法，但是能够衡量边境研究主题存在差距。该项目开发了技术出现的新指标，以支持研究人员，研究经理，企业和其他人确定科学技术领域的关键主题。区分尖端的研发活动可以为战略发展提供信息，并揭示新的机会。能够衡量新兴主题还可以使研究计划评估更加清晰。哪些国家，组织或个人为给定领域的进步做出最大贡献的指标提供了重要的竞争技术情报。该项目的新技术出现指标着重于边境对补充一般科学，技术和创新指标的贡献。我们制定了一系列指标，开发软件程序来计算它们，并设计报告和可视化以与不同的受众（包括研究人员，经理和政策制定者）进行交流。该项目实施了构成技术出现的四项模型。新兴的话题应证明新颖性，持久性和加速增长，并显示研究界的形成。该方法从全球研究出版物和专利数据库中提取了有关科学和技术主题的记录。该研究实验以不同的方式清洁和巩固这些记录的局部内容。然后，该项目将软件脚本设计为评分主题的出现程度。然后，根据参与者在高度新兴的主题上工作的程度，计算算法在给定的研究领域（例如研究组织或国家 /地区）中得分。然后，通过九个多元化的科学和技术案例研究对分数的构成以及它们的行为方式进行了研究。测试包括跨场和时间段的一系列灵敏度分析。该测试旨在通过分析其在随后的一到三年期间预测研究和开发活动时的绩效来验证出现指标。这些新的技术出现指标将与既定的科学和技术指标一起进行检查，以帮助评估研发能力和机会。该项目将探索应用出现指标的方法，例如衡量政府资助计划如何提高尖端研究主题活动，或跟踪主题内容从研究到专利到商业化领域的扩散。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并被认为是值得的。通过基金会的智力优点和更广泛的影响评估标准通过评估来支持。