CNH-L: Climate Change Adaptation in a Coupled Geomorphic-Economic Coastal System

CNH-L：地貌-经济耦合沿海系统的气候变化适应

基本信息

批准号：
1715638
负责人：
Dylan McNamara
金额：
$ 149.98万
依托单位：
University of North Carolina at Wilmington
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
2017
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2017-08-01 至 2023-01-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1715638&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
CNH Climate Change Adaptation Coupled

项目摘要

ABSTRACTA non-technical description explaining the broader significance of the projectThis project will analyze the ways in which coastal processes and economic decisions about land use and coastal engineering interact to determine the nature and timing of adaptation to climate risk. It addresses the interactions of natural forces, economic decisions, and public policies over long time horizons to determine how the built environment and patterns of human settlement react to rising seas and related coastline changes. These issues are of concern to a significant part of the US population, especially along the East Coast and Gulf of Mexico, that faces persistent flooding and storm damage. A fundamental aim of this research is to provide knowledge and tools to look further forward in time in responding to coastal and environmental changes. The results will advance knowledge about how beaches and coastal environments react to various storm-related scenarios. It will also provide insight into how real-estate markets react to complex changes in environmental conditions, public policies, scientific knowledge, and individual attitudes and values.A technical description of the projectChanging climatic and geomorphological processes are likely to increase risks of living at the coast in the future and to increase the value of reducing those risks through engineering. However, the same factors will tend to elevate the cost and decrease the certainty of the effectiveness of those engineering actions. These dynamics may eventually make it too expensive to continue coastal habitation in its current forms. Coupled choices about modifications to the natural and built environment will determine not only the characteristics of coastal communities but also the nature of transitions to less inhabited or uninhabited states. Natural systems will be represented by state-of-the-art three-dimensional coastal geomorphology models to significantly improve predictions about the way coastal systems evolve over time. The economic system will be investigated through a novel specification of the property markets in two US east coast communities and will be informed by surveys and qualitative research into residents' knowledge of risks and preferences for coastal amenities and infrastructure. The project will investigate the way that public policies, including government-managed insurance, engineering projects, disaster relief, and infrastructure, will impact both economic decisions and the coastal environment. The resulting modeling structure will be a significant step forward in modeling community-environment interactions in response to climate change over long time scales, and the code and model structure will be made both accessible for additional research and policy decisions.

摘要非技术描述解释了该项目的更广泛意义该项目将分析沿海过程和有关土地利用和沿海工程的经济决策相互作用的方式，以确定适应气候风险的性质和时间。它解决了自然力量、经济决策和公共政策在长期范围内的相互作用，以确定建筑环境和人类住区模式如何对海平面上升和相关海岸线变化做出反应。这些问题引起了很大一部分美国民众的关注，特别是在面临持续洪水和风暴破坏的东海岸和墨西哥湾地区。这项研究的基本目的是提供知识和工具，以便及时进一步应对沿海和环境变化。研究结果将增进人们对海滩和沿海环境如何应对各种风暴相关情景的了解。它还将深入了解房地产市场如何对环境条件、公共政策、科学知识以及个人态度和价值观的复杂变化做出反应。该项目的技术描述气候和地貌过程的变化可能会增加居住在该地区的风险未来海岸并增加通过工程降低这些风险的价值。然而，同样的因素往往会增加成本并降低这些工程行动有效性的确定性。这些动态最终可能会使继续以目前的形式沿海居住变得过于昂贵。关于改变自然环境和建筑环境的联合选择不仅将决定沿海社区的特征，还将决定向无人居住或无人居住国家过渡的性质。自然系统将由最先进的三维海岸地貌模型来表示，以显着改进对海岸系统随时间演变方式的预测。将通过对美国东海岸两个社区的房地产市场的新颖规范来调查经济体系，并将通过对居民对沿海便利设施和基础设施的风险和偏好的了解进行调查和定性研究来了解情况。该项目将调查公共政策，包括政府管理的保险、工程项目、救灾和基础设施，将如何影响经济决策和沿海环境。由此产生的建模结构将是在长期尺度上应对气候变化的社区与环境相互作用建模方面向前迈出的重要一步，并且代码和模型结构将可供其他研究和政策决策使用。

项目成果

期刊论文数量（22）

专著数量（0）

科研奖励数量（0）

会议论文数量（0）

专利数量（0）

Flood Insurance Market Penetration and Expectations of Disaster Assistance

洪水保险市场渗透率及救灾预期

DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.3371980
发表时间：
2021-01
期刊：
American journal of environmental and resource economics
影响因子：
0
作者：
Landry; Craig E.
通讯作者：
Craig E.

Risk Perceptions and Flood Insurance: Insights from Homeowners on the Georgia Coast

风险认知和洪水保险：乔治亚州海岸房主的见解

DOI：
10.3390/su122410372
发表时间：
2020-12-11
期刊：
Sustainability
影响因子：
3.9
作者：
C. L;ry;ry;Dylan Turner
通讯作者：
Dylan Turner

Coastal futures: New framings, many questions, some ways forward

沿海未来：新框架、许多问题、一些前进方向

DOI：
10.1017/cft.2023.22
发表时间：
2023-01
期刊：
Cambridge Prisms: Coastal Futures
影响因子：
0
作者：
Spencer, Tom;Adams, Janine;Le Tissier, Martin;Murray, A. Brad;Splinter, Kristen
通讯作者：
Splinter, Kristen

Riders on the Storm: Hurricane Risk and Coastal Insurance and Mitigation Decisions

暴风雨中的骑手：飓风风险以及沿海保险和减灾决策