PREEVENTS Track 2: Understanding Extreme Fire Weather Hazards and Improving Resilience in Coastal Santa Barbara, California

预防措施轨道 2：了解加利福尼亚州圣巴巴拉沿海地区的极端火灾天气危害并提高抵御能力

基本信息

批准号：
1664173
负责人：
Leila Carvalho
金额：
$ 150.9万
依托单位：
University of California-Santa Barbara
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Continuing Grant
财政年份：
2017
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2017-08-01 至 2023-07-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1664173&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
PREEVENTS Track Understanding Extreme Fire

项目摘要

Wildfires at the wildland-urban interface pose significant hazards to people and the environment and cost billions of dollars. Santa Barbara County in California encapsulates one of the worst wildfire hazard scenarios affecting highly populated areas along the west coast of the United States. A significant portion of the Santa Barbara population resides in mountain areas near canyons and passes in the wildland-urban interface, and are particularly vulnerable to fires during extreme weather conditions. Residents use winding narrow roads to leave these areas, which increases the time needed for mandatory evacuations. Frequent gusty downslope winds accompanied by rapid warming and decreased relative humidity are among the most significant fire weather conditions affecting coastal Santa Barbara. Such conditions have enhanced the severity of 15 major wildfires since 1955. This project will integrate atmospheric, fire spread and transportation models to enhance the current understanding of extreme fire weather regimes and wildfire behavior in the wildland-urban interface in Santa Barbara County. The main goal of the project is to improve existing fire-weather forecast methods, increase resilience, and reduce socioeconomic impacts of wildfires. The project also will improve understanding of the effects of natural hazards and extreme events on societal preparedness in the context of evacuation planning. The results of the project can be applied to many other mountain areas in Southern California where fires present a major hazard. The project will provide key outreach materials for dissemination to government agencies that could be available to the public. Moreover, the project supports the development of new educational courses, and supports the training of graduate students and a postdoctoral investigatorThis project will develop unique approaches to make substantial intellectual advances in a natural hazard problem of high impact to society. The research links fire-weather, fire behavior and evacuation planning and focuses on the coastal area of Santa Barbara County with a population of over 200,000 people. The project will develop a new framework centered on the specific objectives of: 1) understanding synoptic-to-mesoscale mechanisms of downslope windstorms and extreme fire-weather regimes (i.e., gusty winds, low humidity, high temperature and high vegetation fuels), 2) investigating probabilities of fire spread and fire-weather risk at the wildland-urban interface, 3) developing enhanced evacuation strategies using transportation and land use models and 4) carrying on a comprehensive program to transfer research findings to Federal, State and Local Agencies and the community of Santa Barbara. This research will create scenarios to examine evacuation strategies using transportation modeling, significantly enhancing understanding of extreme fire weather regimes on various spatial and temporal scales and improving the present capability to model and forecast these hazardous events.

荒地与城市交界处的野火对人类和环境造成重大危害，造成数十亿美元的损失。加利福尼亚州圣巴巴拉县是影响美国西海岸人口稠密地区最严重的野火灾害之一。圣巴巴拉人口的很大一部分居住在峡谷附近的山区以及荒地与城市交界处的山口，在极端天气条件下特别容易遭受火灾。居民使用蜿蜒狭窄的道路离开这些地区，这增加了强制疏散所需的时间。频繁的阵风下坡，伴随着快速变暖和相对湿度下降，是影响圣巴巴拉沿海的最重要的火灾天气条件之一。自 1955 年以来，此类条件已加剧了 15 场重大野火的严重性。该项目将整合大气、火势蔓延和运输模型，以增强目前对圣巴巴拉县荒地与城市交界处的极端火灾天气状况和野火行为的了解。该项目的主要目标是改进现有的火灾天气预报方法，提高抵御能力，并减少野火的社会经济影响。该项目还将在疏散规划的背景下加深对自然灾害和极端事件对社会准备的影响的了解。该项目的结果可应用于南加州许多其他火灾严重的山区。该项目将提供关键的外展材料，以便向政府机构分发，并向公众提供。此外，该项目支持新教育课程的开发，并支持研究生和博士后研究员的培训。该项目将开发独特的方法，在对社会产生重大影响的自然灾害问题上取得实质性的智力进步。该研究将火灾天气、火灾行为和疏散规划联系起来，重点关注人口超过 20 万的圣巴巴拉县沿海地区。该项目将开发一个新的框架，重点关注以下具体目标：1）了解下坡风暴和极端火灾天气状况（即阵风、低湿度、高温和高植被燃料）的天气到中尺度机制，2 ) 调查荒地与城市交界处的火灾蔓延概率和火灾天气风险， 3) 使用交通和土地利用模型制定强化疏散策略，以及 4) 实施综合计划将研究成果转移给联邦、州和地方机构以及圣巴巴拉社区。这项研究将利用交通模型创建场景来检查疏散策略，从而显着增强对各种空间和时间尺度上的极端火灾天气状况的理解，并提高目前对这些危险事件进行建模和预测的能力。

项目成果

期刊论文数量（12）

专著数量（0）

科研奖励数量（0）

会议论文数量（0）

专利数量（0）

Simulating Potential Impacts of Fuel Treatments on Fire Behavior and Evacuation Time of the 2018 Camp Fire in Northern California

模拟燃料处理对 2018 年北加州营地火灾的火灾行为和疏散时间的潜在影响

DOI：
10.3390/fire5020037
发表时间：
2022-04
期刊：
Fire
影响因子：
0
作者：
Seto, Daisuke;Jones, Charles;Trugman, Anna T.;Varga, Kevin;Plantinga, Andrew J.;Carvalho, Leila M.;Thompson, Callum;Gellman, Jacob;Daum, Kristofer
通讯作者：
Daum, Kristofer

Simulating Sundowner Winds in Coastal Santa Barbara: Model Validation and Sensitivity

模拟圣巴巴拉沿海的日落风：模型验证和灵敏度

DOI：
10.3390/atmos10030155
发表时间：
2019-03
期刊：
Atmosphere
影响因子：
2.9
作者：
Duine, Gert;Jones, Charles;Carvalho, Leila;Fovell, Robert
通讯作者：
Fovell, Robert

Mesoscale patterns associated with two distinct heatwave events in coastal Santa Barbara, California, and their impact on local fire risk conditions

与加利福尼亚州圣巴巴拉沿海两次不同热浪事件相关的中尺度模式及其对当地火灾风险状况的影响

DOI：
10.1016/j.wace.2022.100482
发表时间：
2022-07-01
期刊：
Weather and Climate Extremes
影响因子：
8
作者：
G. Duine;L. Carvalho;Charles Jones
通讯作者：
Charles Jones

Extreme winds and fire weather in coastal Santa Barbara County, CA : An observational analysis

加利福尼亚州沿海圣巴巴拉县的极端风和火灾天气：观测分析

DOI：
10.1002/joc.7262
发表时间：
2021-06
期刊：
International Journal of Climatology
影响因子：
0
作者：
Zigner, Katelyn;Carvalho, Leila M. V.;Jones, Charles;Duine, Gert‐Jan
通讯作者：
Duine, Gert‐Jan

Coastal Vulnerability under Extreme Weather

DOI：
10.1007/s12061-020-09357-0
发表时间：
2020-07-30
期刊：
Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy
影响因子：
1.9
作者：
Alan T. Murray;L. Carvalho;R. Church;Charles Jones;D. Roberts;Jing Xu;K. Zigner;D. Nash
通讯作者：
D. Nash