PREEVENTS Track 2: Collaborative Research: Comprehensive Hazard Analysis for Resilience to Geomagnetic Extreme Disturbances

预防措施轨道 2：协作研究：地磁极端扰动恢复能力的综合危害分析

• 批准号: 1664078
• 负责人: Raluca Ilie
• 金额: $ 14.65万
• 依托单位: University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2017-09-01 至 2022-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1664078&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: PREEVENTS; Track; Collaborative; Research; Comprehensive

Extreme solar storms threaten society, in part, via Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) which damage power transmission systems. A space weather extreme event would devastate the US, costing more than $2T and leaving hundreds of millions without electricity for more than a month. The National Space Weather Action Plan calls for an immediate increase in research and improvements to our predictive capabilities to address this threat. This proposed work will make use of NSF funded data sources (AMPERE, SUPERMAG, and EarthScope) to improve existing models with in the Space Weather Modeling Framework and to generate a new tool for GIC prediction that could easily be transitioned to operations at NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center.Comprehensive Hazard Analysis for Resilience to Geomagnetic Extreme Disturbances (CHARGED) applies experts in various disciplines to create a fully coupled, physics-based model of GICs that includes the magnetosphere, ionosphere, and solid Earth together with validation against state-of-the art globally distributed observations. The Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) will be improved with realistic particle precipitation and ionospheric conductance physics. A global 3D finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) model will be used to propagate the ionosphere signal through the ground while accounting for the oceans and variable lithosphere conductivity. This model will be validated using the best available in-situ and remote data to determine its predictive accuracy. The relationship between solar driving and GICs will be explored for both historical and idealized extreme events. The project will yield fundamental new understanding of the processes leading to extreme GIC events (solicitation target 1), and expand our capability to model and forecast GIC hazards (target 2). The resulting coupled system could form a natural extension to the operational SWMF version currently at NOAA.

极端的太阳风暴在某种程度上威胁着社会，这是通过损坏发电系统的地磁诱发电流（GIC）。太空天气极端事件将摧毁美国，耗资超过2吨，并在一个多个月的时间内留下了数亿美元，没有电力。国家太空天气行动计划要求立即增加研究和提高我们的预测能力以应对这一威胁。这项拟议的工作将利用NSF资助的数据源（Ampere，Supermag和EarthScope），以通过在太空天气建模框架中改善现有模型，并为GIC生成一个新工具，用于GIC预测，可以轻松地过渡到NOAA太空天气的运营预测中心commence危险分析对地磁极端干扰的弹性分析（充电）在各种学科中都应用专家，以创建一个完全基于物理的基于物理学的GIC模型，其中包括磁层，电离层和固体地球，以及验证验证的验证全球分布的艺术观测。通过逼真的颗粒沉淀和电离层电导物理学，将改善太空天气建模框架（SWMF）。全局3D有限差分时间域（FDTD）模型将用于通过地面传播电离层信号，同时考虑海洋和可变的岩石圈电导率。该模型将使用最佳的原位和远程数据验证，以确定其预测精度。对于历史和理想化的极端事件，将探索太阳能驾驶与GIC之间的关系。该项目将对导致极端GIC事件的过程（招标目标1）产生基本的新理解，并将我们的能力扩展到建模和预测GIC危害（目标2）。由此产生的耦合系统可以自然扩展到NOAA目前的操作SWMF版本。

项目成果

The Contribution of N + Ions to Earth's Polar Wind

N离子对地球极地风的贡献

• DOI: 10.1029/2020gl089321
• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: Geophysical Research Letters
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Lin, Mei‐Yun;Ilie, Raluca;Glocer, Alex
• 通讯作者: Glocer, Alex

The Effects of Inductive Electric Field on the Spatial and Temporal Evolution of the Inner Magnetospheric Ring Current

感应电场对内磁层环流时空演化的影响

• DOI: 10.1029/2020ja028554
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics
• 作者: Liu, Jianghuai;Ilie, Raluca
• 通讯作者: Ilie, Raluca

A Brief Review of the Ring Current and Outstanding Problems

• DOI: 10.1002/9781119815624.ch20
• 发表时间: 2021-04
• 作者: R. Ilie;M. F. Bashir;E. Kronberg