Collaborative Research: A Framework for Assessing the Impact of Extreme Heat and Drought on Urban Energy Production and Consumption

合作研究：评估极端高温和干旱对城市能源生产和消费影响的框架

• 批准号: 1662691
• 负责人: Kristen Cetin
• 金额: $ 39.65万
• 依托单位: Iowa State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2017-09-01 至 2020-02-29
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1662691&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Framework; Assessing; Impact

This research will produce novel, rigorous and integrative methods that will contribute to society's capacity for effectively managing city-scale electricity systems during periods of extreme heat and drought. The modern electric grid, which includes both electricity consumers and producers, faces significant challenges and uncertainties, including increased frequency and intensity of heat waves and droughts. Concurrently, the processes underlying electricity production and consumption are becoming more complex, due in part to advances in electric grid-connected technologies and the demand-side management programs that control them. This research will improve knowledge of city-specific future extreme heat and drought scenarios, as well as quantification of the impact of extreme events under these scenarios on a city's electricity consumption and production. Findings from this research have the potential to significantly impact the way cities and electric utility operators manage electric grids under extreme heat and drought conditions.This project addresses vital links between climate modeling, consumption and production, and seeks to contribute to the following scientific advancements: 1) development of effective methods for generating refined future extreme heat and drought scenarios utilizing disparate sources of data of varying fidelity, such as historical observations; 2) development of a flexible electricity consumption model integrated with demand-side management strategies using bottom-up energy and demand modeling methods; 3) development of a data-driven stochastic optimization method for robust power-generation decision strategies that considers various sources of uncertainty, including weather and the consumption and production of electricity.

这项研究将产生新颖、严格和综合的方法，有助于提高社会在极端炎热和干旱时期有效管理城市规模电力系统的能力。现代电网，包括电力消费者和生产者，面临着重大挑战和不确定性，包括热浪和干旱的频率和强度增加。与此同时，电力生产和消费的过程变得越来越复杂，部分原因是电网连接技术和控制这些技术的需求侧管理计划的进步。这项研究将增进对特定城市未来极端高温和干旱情景的了解，并量化这些情景下的极端事件对城市电力消耗和生产的影响。这项研究的结果有可能对城市和电力运营商在极端炎热和干旱条件下管理电网的方式产生重大影响。该项目解决了气候建模、消费和生产之间的重要联系，并寻求为以下科学进步做出贡献： 1) 开发有效的方法，利用不同保真度的不同数据源（例如历史观测数据）生成精细的未来极端高温和干旱情景； 2）利用自下而上的能源和需求建模方法，开发与需求侧管理策略相结合的灵活用电模型； 3）开发数据驱动的随机优化方法，用于稳健的发电决策策略，该策略考虑各种不确定性来源，包括天气以及电力的消耗和生产。

项目成果

Urban Weather Predictions Compared to a Dense Network of Ground-Based Weather Station Data for Assessment of Urban Building Energy Consumption

城市天气预报与密集的地面气象站数据网络的比较，用于评估城市建筑能耗

• 发表时间: 2019
• 期刊: ASHRAE Annual Conference papers
• 作者: Jahani, E;Vanage, S.;Jahn, D.;Gallus, W.;Cetin, K.S.
• 通讯作者: Cetin, K.S.

City-scale energy modeling to assess impacts of extreme heat on electricity consumption and production using WRF-UCM modeling with bias correction

• 发表时间: 2021
• 作者: E. Jahani;Soham Vanage;D. Jahn;Kristen S. Cetin;W. Gallus