Collaborative Research: Uncertainty in Antarctic Climate Change Projections and the Role of Sea Ice, Clouds and Ocean Structure

合作研究：南极气候变化预测的不确定性以及海冰、云和海洋结构的作用

基本信息

批准号：
1643493
负责人：
Jennifer Kay
金额：
$ 24.37万
依托单位：
University of Colorado at Boulder
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
2017
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2017-08-15 至 2021-07-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1643493&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
Collaborative Research Uncertainty Antarctic Climate

项目摘要

Climate change in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean has major societal impacts in terms of global sea level rise, carbon storage into the ocean, and heat transport. The project goal of this study is to systematically assess the influence of long-standing atmospheric radiation and ocean structure components on the modelled climate of Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, using a state-of-the-art community climate model (CESM). The project will be co-led by female PIs at the University of Colorado (CU) and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), and will support the training and mentoring of a new graduate student at CU, and a science communication postdoc. Because public understanding of these issues can be very low, the project includes a substantial outreach and science communication component. An interactive museum display demonstrating the interpretation and implications of trends and variability in Antarctic sea ice will be developed, along with provision of training for K-12 educators nationwide that focuses on using the display, or a web variant.Large uncertainties in projected anthropogenic climate change impacts are related to Antarctica and the Southern Ocean. Projected changes in Antarctic surface mass balance, sea ice extent, and surface temperature differ widely amongst current-generation climate models. Such uncertainties likely have roots in the mean states (climatologies) of different models. Recent observational and modeling evidence has implicated ocean mean-state biases in particular for the general inability of climate models to simulate trends in annual Antarctic sea ice extent observed by remote sensing. Ocean biases may be driven in part by a long-standing bias in absorbed shortwave radiation over the Southern Ocean. The primary project goal is to systematically assess the influence of long-standing atmospheric radiation and ocean structure biases on the modelled climate of Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, using a state-of-the-art community climate model (CESM). It is anticipated that the mean state (climatology) bias reductions will alter the response of sea ice extent and volume, air temperature, precipitation, surface mass balance, and sea level rise to anthropogenic forcing. Proposed climate modeling experiments, together with existing numerical simulation experiments, will enable a more thorough and systematic assessment of the impact of mean-state biases on the simulation of climate variability and change across Antarctica and the Southern Ocean than has been previously possible.

南极洲和南大洋的气候变化在全球海平面上升、海洋碳储存和热量传输方面具有重大社会影响。本研究的项目目标是使用最先进的社区气候模型（CESM）系统评估长期大气辐射和海洋结构成分对南极洲和南大洋模拟气候的影响。该项目将由科罗拉多大学 (CU) 和国家大气研究中心 (NCAR) 的女性 PI 共同领导，并将支持 CU 一名新研究生和一名科学传播博士后的培训和指导。由于公众对这些问题的了解可能非常低，因此该项目包括大量的外展和科学传播部分。将开发一个交互式博物馆展示，展示南极海冰趋势和变化的解释和影响，同时为全国 K-12 教育工作者提供侧重于使用展示或网络变体的培训。预测的人为气候存在很大的不确定性变化影响与南极洲和南大洋有关。当前一代气候模型对南极表面质量平衡、海冰范围和表面温度的预测变化存在很大差异。这种不确定性可能根源于不同模型的平均状态（气候学）。最近的观测和建模证据表明海洋平均状态存在偏差，特别是气候模型普遍无法模拟遥感观测到的每年南极海冰范围的趋势。海洋偏差可能部分是由南大洋吸收短波辐射的长期偏差造成的。项目的主要目标是使用最先进的社区气候模型（CESM）系统评估长期大气辐射和海洋结构偏差对南极洲和南大洋模拟气候的影响。预计平均状态（气候学）偏差的减少将改变海冰范围和体积、气温、降水、表面质量平衡和海平面上升对人为强迫的响应。拟议的气候建模实验与现有的数值模拟实验相结合，将能够比以前更全面、更系统地评估平均状态偏差对南极洲和南大洋气候变率和变化模拟的影响。