Combining meteorological and oceanic observations for an improved SODA: reconstrucing climate variability during the past century

结合气象和海洋观测改进 SODA：重建上个世纪的气候变化

• 批准号: 1635470
• 负责人: James Carton
• 金额: $ 77.59万
• 依托单位: University of Maryland, College Park
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2016-09-01 至 2020-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1635470&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Combining; meteorological; oceanic; observations; improved

The ocean's ability to store and transport heat and freshwater gives it a crucial role in climate variability. The idea that the ocean can sequester excess heat and thus disrupt continental warming trends or shift rainfall patterns is the subject of a rapidly growing research literature. Much of the observational basis for many studies of the hiatus is limited to the years since 2001 when the instrumental coverage of the oceans expanded due to Argo. An effort by meteorologists is refining and extending the surface meteorological record back to the nineteenth century. This proposal is a complementary effort to explore the limits of using data assimilation to combine historical observations, surface meteorology, and ocean dynamics to reconstruct the corresponding record of ocean heat and water storage. By elucidating the historical ocean climate record and the limits to what we can learn about past variability due to the historical data sampling this research provides a key piece of information for efforts to anticipate and predict future climate variability and change. The ocean reanalysis data sets produced will be made freely available to other researchers and the general community, which will foster further research benefits. This work will also form the basis of a dissertation for a University of Maryland graduate student.The ocean and sea ice systems are increasingly being recognized as playing a key role in climate variability and change and so making best use of the limited historical record must be a high priority. The recent hiatus in ocean warming seems to have been confined only to the past decade, but the oceans experienced a much more extended two decade hiatus beginning in 1970 and likely another in the 1940s and 1950s. It has been suggested that the reduced heating in the 1970s was the result of the effects of increasing aerosol loading on net surface heating. If so that should lead to significant differences in heat distribution from the recent hiatus (for which Pacific climate variability is likely important). The relatively cool North Atlantic of the 1940s ended a period of unprecedented warming of the Arctic. Is there evidence to suggest corresponding reductions of northward heat transport into the Arctic? Our understanding of the historical record of salinity is even less certain than temperature, but can the documented trends in upper ocean salinity be shown to alter the ventilation of water masses? The proposal will build on the PI's long term development of the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) reanalysis as a tool to explore the ocean's role in climate variability. A key emphasis will be on using observing system simulation experiments and data withholding experiments to explore the accuracy of those reconstructions to better understand the limits of application of such a reconstruction. With the combined use of hydrographic and tide gauge sea level data together in a hybrid ensemble data assimilation system, this proposal is to reanalyze ocean and sea ice variability (including sea level) from 1900 through 2015, and to use observing system experiments to quantify uncertainties. Justification for the work lies in the need to address the US CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability) program's objectives of "describing and understanding the ocean's role in climate variability on seasonal, interannual, and decadal timescales" and the recommendations of the U.S. Global Change Research Plan 2012-2021.

海洋储存和运输热量和淡水的能力使其在气候变化中发挥着至关重要的作用。海洋可以吸收多余的热量，从而破坏大陆变暖趋势或改变降雨模式，这一观点是快速增长的研究文献的主题。许多关于间断的研究的大部分观测基础仅限于 2001 年以来的年份，当时 Argo 导致海洋仪器覆盖范围扩大。气象学家正在努力完善和扩展地面气象记录，追溯到十九世纪。该提案是探索使用数据同化结合历史观测、表面气象学和海洋动力学来重建海洋热量和水储存的相应记录的局限性的补充努力。通过阐明历史海洋气候记录以及我们通过历史数据采样所能了解的过去变化的局限性，这项研究为预测​​未来气候变化和变化的努力提供了关键信息。产生的海洋再分析数据集将免费提供给其他研究人员和广大社区，这将促进进一步的研究效益。这项工作也将成为马里兰大学研究生论文的基础。人们越来越认识到海洋和海冰系统在气候变率和变化中发挥着关键作用，因此必须充分利用有限的历史记录高度优先。最近海洋变暖的中断似乎只限于过去十年，但从 1970 年开始，海洋经历了更长时间的二十年中断，并且可能在 20 世纪 40 年代和 1950 年代又经历了一次中断。有人认为，20 世纪 70 年代加热减少是气溶胶负荷增加对净表面加热影响的结果。如果是这样，这应该会导致热量分布与最近的中断出现显着差异（太平洋气候变化可能很重要）。 20世纪40年代相对凉爽的北大西洋结束了北极前所未有的变暖时期。是否有证据表明向北向北极输送的热量相应减少？我们对盐度历史记录的理解甚至比温度更不确定，但是记录的上层海洋盐度趋势是否可以改变水团的通风？该提案将建立在 PI 长期开发的简单海洋数据同化（SODA）再分析的基础上，作为探索海洋在气候变化中的作用的工具。重点是利用观测系统模拟实验和数据保留实验来探索这些重建的准确性，以更好地了解这种重建的应用限制。通过在混合集合数据同化系统中结合使用水道测量和验潮仪海平面数据，该提案旨在重新分析 1900 年至 2015 年海洋和海冰的变化（包括海平面），并利用观测系统实验来量化不确定性。这项工作的理由在于需要解决美国 CLIVAR（气候变化和可预测性）计划的“描述和理解海洋在季节、年际和十年时间尺度上气候变化中的作用”的目标以及美国全球变化研究的建议2012-2021 年计划。

项目成果

Delayed and Quasi‐Synchronous Response of Tropical Atlantic Surface Salinity to Rainfall

热带大西洋表面盐度对降雨的延迟和准同步响应

• DOI: 10.1029/2018jc013915
• 发表时间: 2018-08
• 期刊: Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
• 作者: Grodsky, Semyon A.;Carton, James A.
• 通讯作者: Carton, James A.

Report from the NOAA Climate Reanalysis Task Force Technical Workshop

NOAA 气候再分析工作组技术研讨会的报告

• DOI: 10.7289/v53j39zz
• 发表时间: 2016-04
• 期刊: Climate Reanalysis Task Force Technical Workshop
• 作者: Compo, G.;Carton, J.A.;Dong, X.;Kumar, A.;Saha, S.;Woollen, J. S.;Yu, L.;Archambault, H. M.
• 通讯作者: Archambault, H. M.

SODA3: A New Ocean Climate Reanalysis

• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-18-0149.1
• 发表时间: 2018-07-25
• 期刊: Journal of Climate
• 影响因子: 4.9
• 作者: J. Carton;G. Chepurin;Ligang Chen
• 通讯作者: Ligang Chen

Improved Global Net Surface Heat Flux

改善整体净表面热通量

• DOI: 10.1002/2017jc013137
• 发表时间: 2018-05
• 期刊: Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
• 作者: Carton, James A.;Chepurin, Gennady A.;Chen, Ligan;Grodsky, Semyon A.
• 通讯作者: Grodsky, Semyon A.

Global linkages originating from decadal oceanic variability in the subpolar North Atlantic: ATLANTIC-PACIFIC CONNECTIVITY

源于北大西洋副极地十年海洋变化的全球联系：大西洋-太平洋连通性

• DOI: 10.1002/2016gl071134
• 发表时间: 2016-10
• 期刊: Geophysical Research Letters
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Chafik, L.;Häkkinen, S.;England, M. H.;Carton, J. A.;Nigam, S.;Ruiz;Hannachi, A.;Miller, L.
• 通讯作者: Miller, L.