AGS-PRF: Inferring Predictability and Dynamics of Atlantic Multidecadal Climate Variability from Marine and Terrestrial Paleoclimate Records

AGS-PRF：从海洋和陆地古气候记录推断大西洋多年代气候变化的可预测性和动态

• 批准号: 1624777
• 负责人: Daniel Amrhein
• 金额: $ 8.6万
• 依托单位: Amrhein Daniel E
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Fellowship Award
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2017-05-01 至 2019-04-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1624777&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: AGS; PRF; Inferring; Predictability; Dynamics

Under the aegis of the AGS-PRF (post-doctoral research fellowship) solicitation, the researcher aims to leverage recent compilations of proxy records to characterize North Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) in sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The research explores the potential of publicly available paleoclimate records in combination with a proven modeling technique to address fundamental hypotheses about the time scales, stationarity, anthropogenic influence, and coupled atmosphere-ocean dynamics of Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV). The project is guided by three specific science questions and one far-reaching and overarching question. Specifically, the research seeks to address: Question 1) What is the predictability of AMV as evidenced by proxy records? Do proxy records suggest mechanisms of coupled atmosphere-ocean AMV?Strategy: To diagnose AMV predictability from proxy records, linear inverse models (LIMs) will be derived from marine and terrestrial proxy records. Eigenvalue analyses will be used to show dominant dynamical patterns and time scales, and marine and terrestrial records will be used to identify coupled climate variability. Forecast skill of models derived from proxies, modern observations, and output from the Last Millennium Reanalysis Project will be compared.Question 2) Is AMV changing through time, and can we attribute changes to anthropogenic forcing? Strategy: Non-stationarities in AMV, including possible responses to anthropogenic influences, will be explored using statistical tests, wavelet analyses, and eigenvector analyses of LIMs constructed over temporal subsets of the data.Question 3) How do AMV dynamics in general circulation models and proxy-derived models differ? Strategy: Dynamics responsible for AMV in proxy-derived LIMs will be compared to mechanisms for AMV in controls runs from the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5) archives.The research is guided by the far-reaching and overarching question: Question: Do paleoclimate proxy data have power to constrain AMV dynamics and predictability? Strategy: If "yes," then proxy records can be directly useful in making and evaluating modern climate forecasts, and the techniques can be expanded to other regions and time scales. If "no," then the research will help quantify the limits of proxy records to assess predictability of modern climate, and identify new record types and sites to improve dynamical understanding and predictive power.The broader impacts involve supporting an early career scientist, helping reduce the uncertainty in North Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) in sea surface temperatures (SSTs), and providing materials to local STEM high school teachers and students through projects already in existence at the university.

在AGS-PRF（博士后研究奖学金）招标下，研究人员旨在利用近期代理记录的汇编来表征海面温度（SSTS）中北大西洋多年多年变异性（AMV）。该研究探讨了公开可用的古气候记录的潜力以及一种经过验证的建模技术，以解决有关时间尺度，平稳性，人为影响和耦合大西洋多层次变化（AMV）的基本假设。 该项目以三个特定的科学问题和一个深远的总体问题为指导。 具体来说，研究试图解决：问题1）AMV的可预测性是什么，这是代理记录所证明的？代理记录是否表明耦合大气 - 海洋amv策略的机制：为了诊断从代理记录中诊断AMV可预测性，线性逆模型（LIM）将来自海洋和陆地代理记录。特征值分析将用于显示主导的动态模式和时间尺度，海洋和陆地记录将用于识别气候变化。将比较源自代理，现代观察结果和上千年重新分析项目的模型的预测技能。问题2）AMV正在随着时间的推移而变化，我们可以将变化归因于人为强迫吗？策略：AMV中的非平稳性，包括对人为影响的可能响应，将使用统计测试，小波分析和对数据的时间表的LIMS进行统计测试，小波分析和特征向量分析。代理衍生的模型有所不同吗？策略：在代理衍生的LIM中负责AMV的动力学将与CMIP5控制中AMV的机制进行比较（耦合模型对比项目，第5阶段）档案。该研究以深远的和超大的问题为指导：问题：问题：问题：问题：问题：问题：问题：古气候代理数据有能力限制AMV动力学和可预测性吗？策略：如果是“是”，那么代理记录可以直接用于制定和评估现代气候预测，并且这些技术可以扩展到其他地区和时间尺度。如果“否”，那么研究将有助于量化代理记录的限制以评估现代气候的可预测性，并确定新的记录类型和站点以提高动态理解和预测能力。更广泛的影响涉及支持早期职业科学家海面温度（SST）的北大西洋多年代变异性（AMV）的不确定性，并通过大学已经存在的项目向当地的STEM高中教师和学生提供材料。