Collaborative Research: Effects of Changing Temperature on the Gulf of Alaska Ecosystem

合作研究：温度变化对阿拉斯加湾生态系统的影响

• 批准号: 1558648
• 负责人: Lorenzo Ciannelli
• 金额: $ 11.6万
• 依托单位: Oregon State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2016-02-15 至 2018-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1558648&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Effects; Changing; Temperature

This research has the potential to transform our understanding of how climate affects marine ecosystems and improve efforts toward ecosystem-based fisheries management. Investigators will analyze existing data to determine how shifts in climate properties over time may have affected commercially important fishes in the Gulf of Alaska (GOA). For several decades, significant relationships between sea surface temperature (SST) and abundance of a broad group of marine organisms in the GOA offered some promise for incorporating environmental data into fisheries management strategies. However, many of these statistical connections deteriorated abruptly in the late 1980s, while at the same time interactions between GOA SST and other aspects of climate conditions changed as well. This study will test the hypothesis that a switch in large-scale climate variability in the 1980s led to reorganization of relationships among GOA atmospheric and oceanographic properties, which in turn, produced a change in connection between temperature and ocean biology. These types of "no-analogue climate states" are well recognized in paleoecology and have been anticipated as a potential outcome of climate change, but few studies of ecological response to such switches are available. The project will support a postdoctoral scientist, as well as graduate and undergraduate student researchers. It will facilitate cooperation among scientists at three public universities, a non-profit research lab, and a federal management agency in order to combine the range of expertise that will be required to carry out this research.This research has the potential to transform our understanding of how climate affects marine ecosystems. It is based on preliminary analyses showing that the statistical relationships between SST and community state in the Gulf of Alaska appear to be nonstationary, with driver-response relationships that differ markedly before and after 1988/89. Preliminary analyses also show that correlations between SST and a number of other GOA climate parameters are significantly different before and after 1988/89. Additionally, leading modes in North Pacific SST anomalies for 1950-present changed their relative importance before and after 1988/89, with the second mode (North Pacific Gyre Oscillation, or NPGO) explaining more variability than the first mode (Pacific Decadal Oscillation, or PDO) during the past three decades. This change is consistent with a switch to a no-analogue climate state, characterized by markedly different patterns of variability among basin-scale climate processes. The proposed hypothesis will be tested with a combination of statistical ecological models and numerical ocean models. The statistical approach (threshold generalized additive models) will provide formal tests for nonstationary relationships between SST variability and ecological characteristics at the community and population level using time series data (1965-present) for 17 salmon, groundfish and crustacean populations from the GOA. In addition, nonstationary relationships among atmospheric and hydrographic processes at basin and regional scales will be tested with time series generated by ocean data-assimilation and hindcast models. Finally, those nonstationary relationships identified will be used to parameterize statistical models of biological variability that account for non-analogous states in the system.

这项研究有可能改变我们对气候如何影响海洋生态系统的理解，并改善基于生态系统的渔业管理的努力。研究人员将分析现有数据，以确定随着时间的流逝，气候特性的变化如何影响阿拉斯加湾（GOA）的商业重要鱼类。 几十年来，果阿中海面温度（SST）（SST）和丰富的海洋生物的丰度之间的显着关系为将环境数据纳入渔业管理策略提供了一些希望。但是，这些统计连接中的许多连接在1980年代后期突然恶化，而同时果阿SST与气候条件的其他方面之间的相互作用也发生了变化。这项研究将检验以下假设：1980年代大规模气候变化的转换导致果阿大气和海洋特性之间关系的重组，这又导致温度与海洋生物学之间的联系发生了变化。这些类型的“无障碍气候状态”在古生态学中得到了广泛认可，并被预期是气候变化的潜在结果，但是很少有对此类切换的生态反应的研究。该项目将支持博士后科学家以及研究生和本科生研究人员。它将促进三所公立大学，非营利性研究实验室和联邦管理机构的科学家之间的合作，以结合进行这项研究所需的专业知识。这项研究有可能改变我们对气候如何影响海洋生态系统的理解。它基于初步分析表明，阿拉斯加湾的SST与社区状态之间的统计关系似乎是非组织的，驱动程序 - 响应关系在1988/89年之前和之后都有明显不同。 初步分析还表明，在1988/89年之前和之后，SST和许多其他果阿气候参数之间的相关性显着不同。 此外，在1988/89年度之前和之后，北太平洋SST异常中的领先模式改变了其相对重要性，第二个模式（北太平洋Gyre振荡或NPGO）在过去三十年中解释了比第一种模式（太平洋年代衰减振荡或PDO）更大的可变性。这种变化与切换到无障碍气候状态的变化是一致的，其特征是盆地规模的气候过程之间的变异性明显不同。提出的假设将通过统计生态模型和数值海洋模型的结合进行测试。统计方法（阈值通用添加剂模型）将使用果阿的17个鲑鱼，地下鱼类和甲壳类人口的时间序列数据（1965-至今）为社区和人口水平的SST变异性与生态特征之间的非常规关系提供正式测试。此外，将测试盆地和区域尺度的大气和水文过程之间的非平稳关系，并通过海洋数据鉴别和后广播模型产生的时间序列进行测试。 最后，确定的那些非平稳关系将用于参数化生物变异性的统计模型，该模型占系统中非肛门状态的统计模型。