Collaborative Research: Assessing and Understanding Climate Change in South America

合作研究：评估和理解南美洲的气候变化

• 批准号: 1547899
• 负责人: Paul Loikith
• 金额: $ 27万
• 依托单位: Portland State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2016-05-15 至 2020-10-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1547899&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Assessing; Understanding; Climate

The observational temperature and precipitation records suggest that several regions of South America are already experiencing the effects of climate change. An overarching goal of this project is to determine whether observed changes in key climate variables, such as precipitation, temperature, and humidity are a result of human activities, related to naturally occurring climate variability, or a combination of both. Given its influential agricultural sector, climate variability and change in South America can have global ramifications. This goal will be accomplished through two tasks. The first task is to assess whether the changes in these key climate variables differ significantly from trends that could arise as a result of naturally occurring climate variability. The extent to which humans have influenced climate over the continent to date will also be quantified. The second task will be to systematically examine mechanisms leading to natural climate variability over South America, including patterns of variability such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Using this comprehensive understanding of the natural and anthropogenic influences on observed changes in climate, the ability of current state-of-the-art climate models to reproduce these features in simulations of the past will be evaluated. In the case that a given climate model can simulate observed trends in climate and features of natural climate variability with reasonable skill, confidence in future projections of climate can be boosted. A major goal of this project to develop methods of conveying the multi-dimensional nature of the investigation results in a concise and easily interpretable way to better inform those communities interested in climate information for South America. Furthermore, the approaches and methods used here will be extensible to other regions of the world. Key results of the project will be presented, interpreted, and made publicly available via a user-friendly website to serve both scientific and non-scientific audiences. These results will be communicated throughout the South American climate science and information communities via an email list associated with the World Climate Research Programme's Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). Additionally, the project will support the professional development of a postdoctoral scientist and a graduate student. All team members will participate in publishing results in peer-reviewed scientific journals and in reporting results at relevant professional conferences and meetings. In all cases, the presentation style will aim to the broad community interested in South American climate science and information.

观测到的温度和降水记录表明，南美洲的几个地区已经受到气候变化的影响，该项目的首要目标是确定观测到的降水、温度和湿度等关键气候变量的变化是否是气候变化的结果。考虑到南美洲农业部门的影响力，气候变化可能对全球产生影响。第一项任务是评估。这些关键气候变量的变化是否与迄今为止，人类对非洲大陆气候影响的程度也将得到量化。第二项任务是系统地研究导致南美洲自然气候变化的机制。利用对自然和人为对观测到的气候变化的影响的全面理解，当前最先进的气候模型能够在过去的模拟中重现这些特征。在给定气候模型的情况下进行评估。能够以合理的技能模拟观测到的气候趋势和自然变率气候的特征，可以增强对未来气候预测的信心。该项目的主要目标是开发以简洁明了的方式传达调查结果的多维性质的方法。易于解释的方式，以更好地向那些对南美洲气候信息感兴趣的社区提供信息。此外，这里使用的方法和方法将可扩展到世界其他地区。一个用户友好的网站，为科学和这些结果将通过与世界气候研究计划协调区域气候降尺度实验（CORDEX）相关的电子邮件列表在整个南美气候科学和信息界进行传播。该项目还将支持所有团队成员都将参与在同行评审的科学期刊上发表成果，并在相关专业会议和会议上报告结果。在所有情况下，演示风格都将面向对南美气候感兴趣的广大社区。科学和信息。