Collaborative Research: Assessing and Understanding Climate Change in South America

合作研究：评估和理解南美洲的气候变化

• 批准号: 1547899
• 负责人: Paul Loikith
• 金额: $ 27万
• 依托单位: Portland State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2016-05-15 至 2020-10-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1547899&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Assessing; Understanding; Climate

The observational temperature and precipitation records suggest that several regions of South America are already experiencing the effects of climate change. An overarching goal of this project is to determine whether observed changes in key climate variables, such as precipitation, temperature, and humidity are a result of human activities, related to naturally occurring climate variability, or a combination of both. Given its influential agricultural sector, climate variability and change in South America can have global ramifications. This goal will be accomplished through two tasks. The first task is to assess whether the changes in these key climate variables differ significantly from trends that could arise as a result of naturally occurring climate variability. The extent to which humans have influenced climate over the continent to date will also be quantified. The second task will be to systematically examine mechanisms leading to natural climate variability over South America, including patterns of variability such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Using this comprehensive understanding of the natural and anthropogenic influences on observed changes in climate, the ability of current state-of-the-art climate models to reproduce these features in simulations of the past will be evaluated. In the case that a given climate model can simulate observed trends in climate and features of natural climate variability with reasonable skill, confidence in future projections of climate can be boosted. A major goal of this project to develop methods of conveying the multi-dimensional nature of the investigation results in a concise and easily interpretable way to better inform those communities interested in climate information for South America. Furthermore, the approaches and methods used here will be extensible to other regions of the world. Key results of the project will be presented, interpreted, and made publicly available via a user-friendly website to serve both scientific and non-scientific audiences. These results will be communicated throughout the South American climate science and information communities via an email list associated with the World Climate Research Programme's Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). Additionally, the project will support the professional development of a postdoctoral scientist and a graduate student. All team members will participate in publishing results in peer-reviewed scientific journals and in reporting results at relevant professional conferences and meetings. In all cases, the presentation style will aim to the broad community interested in South American climate science and information.

观察温度和精度记录表明，南美的几个地区已经在经历气候变化的影响。该项目的总体目标是确定观察到的关键气候变量的变化（例如降水，温度和湿度）是人类活动的结果，这与自然发生的气候变异性有关还是两者的组合。鉴于其影响力的农业部门，南美的气候变化和变化可能会产生全球影响。这个目标将通过两个任务来实现。第一个任务是评估这些关键攀登变量的变化是否与趋势不同，这可能是自然发生的攀登变异性的结果。人类影响到迄今为止在非洲大陆上的攀登程度也将被量化。第二个任务是系统地检查导致南美自然气候变化的机制，包括可变性的模式，例如厄尔尼诺南部振荡。通过对观察到的气候变化的自然和人为影响的全面理解，将评估当前最新气候模型在过去模拟中重现这些特征的能力。如果给定的攀岩模型可以通过合理的技能模拟气候和自然气候变化的特征的观察趋势，则可以增强对未来气候项目的信心。该项目开发用于传达投资多维性质的方法的主要目标是一种简洁而易于解释的方式，以更好地告知那些对南美气候信息感兴趣的社区。此外，此处使用的方法和方法将广泛地广泛使用世界其他地区。该项目的关键结果将通过用户友好的网站呈现，解释和公开提供，以服务科学和非科学受众。这些结果将通过与世界气候研究计划协调的区域气候缩减实验（CORDEX）相关的电子邮件列表在整个南美气候科学和信息社区中进行传播。此外，该项目将支持博士后科学家和研究生的专业发展。所有团队成员都将在同行评审的科学期刊上发布结果，并在相关专业会议和会议上报告结果。在所有情况下，演讲风格都将旨在对南美气候科学和信息感兴趣的广泛社区。