CNH: Collaborative Research: Modeling the Dynamics of Harmful Algal Blooms, Human Communities, and Policy Choices Along the Florida Gulf Coast

CNH：合作研究：对佛罗里达州墨西哥湾沿岸有害藻华、人类社区和政策选择的动态进行建模

• 批准号: 1461393
• 负责人: Barbara Kirkpatrick
• 金额: $ 15.77万
• 依托单位: Texas A&M University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-07-15 至 2016-09-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1461393&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CNH; Collaborative; Research; Modeling; Dynamics

Project AbstractAround the world, harmful algal blooms (HABs) in the marine environment are an increasing threat to human health and coastal ecosystems. This research will examine the choices and effectiveness of policies for mitigating the economic and public health effects of blooms of the harmful alga, Karenia brevis, along Florida's Gulf of Mexico coast. The project team will develop a modeling framework comprising statistical models of the dynamics of nature and human demographics, environmental exposure-response models, cost-minimization models, and a policy-simulation model that connects these submodels. An Education Program will be implemented to evaluate education and outreach tools that have been designed to minimize exposure to risks. The research will focus on the following: (1) modeling the relationship between nutrient loadings and the frequency, spread, intensity, and duration of HABs in the eastern Gulf of Mexico; (2) clarifying the changing patterns of short- and long-term human population distributions along the Florida Gulf Coast; (3) specifying the connection between HABs as marine hazards (exposures) and human respiratory ailments (responses); (4) inputing the economic costs of illnesses associated with respiratory ailments; (5) demonstrating feasible ways of communicating risks to the public and implementing mitigation policies; (6) comparing the costs of implementing combinations of existing and prospective policies; and (7) characterizing the array of coupling phenomena (time lags, thresholds, feedback loops, surprises, etc.) that comprise the dynamic interactions between nature and humans in the HABs context. The project is expected to yield insights into a form of dynamic coupling between nature and humans that heretofore has not been studied in depth, one in which policy choices must be made about the relative usefulness of attempts to control either nature or human behavior, or both, in order to reduce harm.This research project will enhance our understanding of how the dynamic interactions between natural and human systems influence and inform society's choice of public policies for mitigating the economic and public health effects of marine harmful algal blooms (HABs). The coupled natural-human system of HABs and increasing coastal populations on the Florida Gulf Coast appear to exhibit many of the classic characteristics of dynamic coupled systems, such as feedbacks, thresholds, surprises, and legacy effects. A better understanding of these characteristics can potentially lead to public policies that are better organized, more informed, less costly, and more effective. The knowledge gained will inform researchers studying other coupled natural-human systems, thereby opening up other lines of research into coastal and aquatic regions affected by natural hazards around the world.

项目摘要在​​世界各地，海洋环境中的有害藻华（HAB）对人类健康和沿海生态系统构成越来越大的威胁。 这项研究将探讨减轻佛罗里达州墨西哥湾沿岸有害藻类短卡伦藻大量繁殖对经济和公共卫生影响的政策选择和有效性。 项目团队将开发一个建模框架，包括自然和人口动态统计模型、环境暴露响应模型、成本最小化模型以及连接这些子模型的政策模拟模型。 将实施一项教育计划，以评估旨在最大限度减少风险的教育和推广工具。 该研究将重点关注以下内容：(1) 对墨西哥湾东部营养物负荷与赤潮发生频率、传播、强度和持续时间之间的关系进行建模； (2) 阐明佛罗里达州墨西哥湾沿岸短期和长期人口分布的变化模式； (3) 明确有害有害生物作为海洋危害（暴露）与人类呼吸道疾病（反应）之间的联系； (4) 输入与呼吸系统疾病相关的疾病的经济成本； (5) 展示向公众传达风险和实施缓解政策的可行方法； (6) 比较现有政策和未来政策组合的实施成本； (7) 表征一系列耦合现象（时间滞后、阈值、反馈循环、意外等），这些现象构成了 HAB 背景下自然与人类之间的动态相互作用。 该项目预计将深入了解迄今为止尚未深入研究的自然与人类之间的一种动态耦合形式，其中必须针对控制自然或人类行为或两者的尝试的相对有用性做出政策选择该研究项目将加深我们对自然系统和人类系统之间的动态相互作用如何影响和指导社会选择公共政策以减轻海洋有害藻华（HAB）的经济和公共健康影响的理解。 HAB 的自然-人类耦合系统和佛罗里达州墨西哥湾沿岸不断增加的沿海人口似乎表现出动态耦合系统的许多经典特征，例如反馈、阈值、意外和遗留效应。 更好地了解这些特征可能会导致公共政策组织得更好、信息更丰富、成本更低且更有效。 所获得的知识将为研究其他自然-人类耦合系统的研究人员提供信息，从而开辟对世界各地受自然灾害影响的沿海和水生区域的其他研究领域。