Collaborative research: Sea-level variability during the Common Era

合作研究：公元元年海平面变化

• 批准号: 1458907
• 负责人: Jerry Mitrovica
• 金额: $ 4.86万
• 依托单位: Harvard University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2015-04-15 至 2017-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1458907&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; research; Sea; level; variability

Part 1The research to be performed will help inform projections of regional and global mean sea-level rise as well as contribute to the climate change impacts assessment. The investigators will reconstruct the relative sea-level variability during the Common Era (~ last 2000 years) along the Atlantic coasts of Newfoundland and Florida and the Florida Gulf coast at higher resolution and in greater detail than is now available. The investigators will work with the National Estuarine Research Reserves Coastal Training Program, the Rutgers Climate and Environmental Change Initiative, and Rutgers Cooperative Extension program to develop applied use of the information from this project. The project seeks to offer an Earthwatch IGNITE project to high school students to provide them with the opportunity to participate in field trips and experience the scientific research firsthand. Results will be showcased to the local community at Tufts Research Days and Rutgers Day, annual events held on campus which will allow the public to engage with the researchers. Undergraduate students will be involved in the research, in both field work and laboratory analysis. Two early-career investigators will be supported by this work and partial support will be provided for postdoctoral scientists from Rutgers University and Tufts University and for graduate students at Rutgers University and the University of Rhode Island. Part 2The proposed work will use geological proxies to reconstruct Common Era relative sea level variability along the Atlantic coasts of Newfoundland and Florida and the Florida Gulf coast at ~0.2m vertical resolution and decadal-to-centennial temporal resolution. To estimate global mean sea level and the spatio-temporal field of eastern North American Common Era relative sea level, the new relative sea level reconstructions will be combined with existing relative sea level reconstructions and tide gauge measurements in an empirical Bayesian statistical framework. The data and statistical model would be used to test the following research questions: 1) whether sea level along the North American Atlantic and Gulf coasts has varied as a direct consequence of a warmer climate during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and cooler climate during the Little Ice Age; 2) whether spatial variability of sea level during the Common Era can be attributed to static-equilibrium effects of land ice changes and/or ocean dynamics; 3) whether Earth models with depth-varying Earth structure are sufficient to capture the spatio-temporal geometry of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment along the east coast of North America; and 4) whether the rate of sea-level rise since ~1850 in eastern North America has been greater than any other centennial trend during the previous two millennia. The proposed work is of significant societal relevance as it will provide more accurate data for use in the projections of regional and global mean sea-level rise as well as contribute to the climate change impacts assessment.

第 1 部分 将进行的研究将有助于为区域和全球平均海平面上升的预测提供信息，并为气候变化影响评估做出贡献。研究人员将以比现在更高的分辨率和更详细的方式重建纽芬兰和佛罗里达州大西洋沿岸以及佛罗里达州墨西哥湾沿岸的公元元时代（约过去 2000 年）的相对海平面变化。 研究人员将与国家河口研究保护区沿海培训计划、罗格斯气候和环境变化倡议以及罗格斯合作推广计划合作，开发该项目信息的应用。该项目旨在为高中生提供 Earthwatch IGNITE 项目，为他们提供参与实地考察和亲身体验科学研究的机会。研究结果将在塔夫茨大学研究日和罗格斯大学日向当地社区展示，这些年度活动在校园内举行，让公众能够与研究人员互动。本科生将参与现场工作和实验室分析的研究。这项工作将支持两名早期职业研究人员，并将为罗格斯大学和塔夫茨大学的博士后科学家以及罗格斯大学和罗德岛大学的研究生提供部分支持。第 2 部分拟议的工作将使用地质代理以约 0.2m 的垂直分辨率和十年到百年的时间分辨率重建纽芬兰和佛罗里达州大西洋沿岸以及佛罗里达州墨西哥湾沿岸的共同时代相对海平面变化。为了估计全球平均海平面和北美共同时代东部相对海平面的时空场，新的相对海平面重建将与经验贝叶斯统计框架中现有的相对海平面重建和验潮仪测量相结合。数据和统计模型将用于测试以下研究问题：1）北美大西洋和墨西哥湾沿岸的海平面变化是否是中世纪气候异常期间气候变暖和小冰期间气候凉爽的直接结果年龄; 2) 公元元年海平面的空间变化是否可以归因于陆地冰变化和/或海洋动力学的静态平衡效应； 3）具有深度变化的地球结构的地球模型是否足以捕捉北美东海岸冰川均衡调整的时空几何结构； 4) 自 1850 年左右以来，北美东部海平面上升的速度是否比过去两千年中任何其他百年趋势都要快。拟议的工作具有重要的社会意义，因为它将提供更准确的数据，用于预测区域和全球平均海平面上升，并有助于气候变化影响评估。