Collaborative Research: Increasing Solar Panel Adoption by Modeling the Interrelated Impacts of Design Decisions, Industry Incentives, Public Policies, and Market Response

合作研究：通过对设计决策、行业激励、公共政策和市场反应的相互影响进行建模来提高太阳能电池板的采用率

• 批准号: 1463717
• 负责人: Erin MacDonald
• 金额: $ 37.24万
• 依托单位: Stanford University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-09-01 至 2018-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1463717&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Increasing; Solar; Panel

Solar Photovoltaic (PV) panels convert energy from the sun into electricity. They emit zero pollutants during electricity generation and thus decrease particulate and greenhouse gas emissions when they replace electricity from coal-fired power plants. Additionally, PV-panel use increases U.S. energy independence and reliability due to decentralized electricity production, and decreases the burden on overstressed and aging coal-fired power plants. While PV technology is increasingly efficient and affordable, it currently accounts for only 1.13 percent of U.S. electricity generation. This award uses a novel combination of mathematical models and consumer survey research to discover design insights and policy measures that will increase adoption of PVs by U.S. households. The research is interdisciplinary, drawing from engineering design, solar technology research, marketing, economics, public policy, psychology, and applied mathematics. The objective of this research is to investigate and improve U.S. residential PV panel adoption by creating an innovative model of dynamic and interrelated decisions made by manufacturers, policymakers, installers, and consumers. The model will include complex decisions for both competing providers (installers) and consumers (homeowners) represented using a game-theoretic approach. Consumer and installer responses to market conditions will be estimated using online survey analysis, providing preference/decision models from real-world data. Consumer preferences will be modeled as responsive to policy campaigns. For example, education and advertising will influence whether consumers will buy PV panels or which panels they will buy. This is a significant improvement over similar modeling approaches, which assume stagnant consumer preferences. Combining this approach with an innovative funnel decision model for consumer purchases will allow for the exploration of the impact of non-financial policy campaigns, such as educational campaigns. Existing engineering and cost models of PV panels act as the backbone for manufacturer pricing and design decisions. Policy models will be built from existing policy measures as well as new options based on results of model simulations and hypothesis testing. A web-based teaching model of this large system of interrelated stakeholders and decisions will help students to understand their engineering education and future career as part of a larger system that can benefit society, for example, by decreasing pollution and increasing U.S. energy independence.

太阳能光伏（PV）面板将能量从太阳转换为电能。它们在发电期间发出零污染物，从而减少颗粒物和温室气体排放，以取代燃煤发电厂的电力。此外，PV-PANEL的使用增加了美国的能源独立性和由于分散的电力生产而引起的可靠性，并减轻了压力过高和老化的燃煤发电厂的负担。尽管PV技术越来越有效且价格合理，但目前仅占美国发电的1.13％。该奖项使用数学模型和消费者调查研究的新型组合来发现设计见解和政策措施，以增加美国家庭对PV的采用。这项研究是跨学科的，来自工程设计，太阳能技术研究，市场，经济学，公共政策，心理学和应用数学。这项研究的目的是通过创建由制造商，政策制定者，安装人员和消费者做出的动态和相互关联的决定的创新模型来调查和改善美国住宅光伏面板的采用。该模型将包括使用游戏理论方法代表的竞争提供商（安装人员）和消费者（房主）的复杂决策。消费者和安装人员对市场条件的响应将使用在线调查分析估算，从而提供了现实世界中的偏好/决策模型。消费者的偏好将被建模为响应政策运动。例如，教育和广告将影响消费者是否会购买光伏面板或他们将购买的哪些面板。这是比相似的建模方法的重大改进，该方法假定消费者的偏好停滞。将这种方法与用于消费者购买的创新渠道决策模型相结合，将允许探索非金融政策运动的影响，例如教育运动。现有的PV面板的工程和成本模型是制造商定价和设计决策的骨干。策略模型将根据现有策略措施以及基于模型仿真和假设测试结果的新选项构建。这种大型相互关联的利益相关者和决策系统的基于网络的教学模型将帮助学生了解他们的工程教育和未来职业，这是一个更大的系统的一部分，该系统可以通过减少污染和增加美国能源独立性来使社会受益。