A Panel Study of the Dynamics of Change in Egypt and Turkey

埃及和土耳其变革动态的小组研究

• 批准号: 1458953
• 负责人: Mansoor Moaddel
• 金额: $ 35.68万
• 依托单位: University of Maryland, College Park
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2015-09-01 至 2018-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1458953&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Panel; Study; Dynamics; Change; Egypt

People's sociopolitical and cultural views change as a result of their experience. An important component of this experience is the outbreak of major events in their lives. These events may be personal, like getting married or divorce, the birth of one's child or the loss of a loved one, starting a new career or losing a job. Life-changing events may also happen at a broader societal level, including a sudden shift in the economic conditions, a major societal upheaval or revolutionary development, sudden changes in the government through a military coup, or political repression by the government or an act of violence perpetrated by terror groups. Such events may reinforce or challenge cherished beliefs, causing a shift in people's orientation toward either conservatism or liberalism. In the contemporary Middle East, comparative historical studies of ideological production and cross-national values surveys have shown associations between changes in social conditions and changes in the dominant sociopolitical discourses and people?s value orientations It is, however, unclear how changes in these conditions explain changes in discourses and values. In prior research comparative surveys were carried out in Egypt in 2011 and Turkey in 2013, using a nationally representative sample of more than 3,000 adults in each country. This project will re-interview the same respondents in order to assess how changes in their life conditions and the outbreak of events that transpired since the last surveys affected their values and political behavior. This project will contribute to a mechanismic explanation of change in values and political engagement by launching a panel study in Egypt and Turkey, where adequate infrastructure for survey research is available. This panel study will (1) explain changes in sociopolitical and cultural values; (2) examine how variation in participation in such activities as peaceful demonstrations, political protests, and political violence is linked to changes in (a) inter-group relations, (b) identity and framing, (c) attitudes toward the West and liberal values, (d) religious fundamentalism, (e) dysphoric emotions or personal efficacy, and (f) sources of news information (the Internet, satellite TV, mobiles); (3) assess how people's perceptions of corruption and trustworthiness of public officials are linked to political action and conflict; and (4) evaluate the implications of this study for peace and national security. This project will also contribute to survey methodology by (1) including a new Event History Calendar in the questionnaire, and (2) assessing the effects of privacy during the interview and interviewer characteristics on respondents.

人们的社会政治和文化观点因其经验而发生了变化。这种经历的重要组成部分是他们生活中重大事件的爆发。这些事件可能是个人的，例如结婚或离婚，孩子的诞生或失去亲人，开始新职业或失业。改变生活的事件也可能发生在更广泛的社会层面上，包括经济状况的突然转变，主要的社会动荡或革命性发展，政府通过军事政变突然变化，政府的政治镇压或恐怖群体犯下的暴力行为。这些事件可能会加强或挑战珍贵的信念，从而导致人们向保守主义或自由主义的方向转移。在当代中东，关于意识形态生产和跨国价值观调查的比较历史研究表明，社会条件的变化与主导的社会政治话语的变化与人们的价值取向之间的关联是不清楚这些条件的变化如何解释了论述和价值的变化。在先前的研究中，2011年在埃及进行了比较调查，并于2013年在每个国家使用3,000多名成年人的全国代表性样本进行了比较。该项目将重新审视相同的受访者，以评估自上次调查以来发生的事件的变化以及发生的事件的爆发如何影响其价值观和政治行为。该项目将通过在埃及和土耳其进行小组研究来为价值变化和政治参与的机理解释做出贡献，在该研究中，有足够的基础设施用于调查研究。该小组研究将（1）解释社会政治和文化价值观的变化； (2) examine how variation in participation in such activities as peaceful demonstrations, political protests, and political violence is linked to changes in (a) inter-group relations, (b) identity and framing, (c) attitudes toward the West and liberal values, (d) religious fundamentalism, (e) dysphoric emotions or personal efficacy, and (f) sources of news information (the Internet, satellite TV, mobiles); （3）评估人们对公职人员对腐败和可信赖性的看法与政治行动和冲突有关； （4）评估这项研究对和平与国家安全的影响。该项目还将促进（1）包括问卷中的新事件历史日历，以及（2）评估访谈中隐私和访调员特征对受访者的影响的影响。