RAPID - Russia, Ukraine and The Dynamics of Public Attitudes Towards U.S. and Global Security

RAPID - 俄罗斯、乌克兰以及公众对美国和全球安全态度的动态

• 批准号: 1443216
• 负责人: Marianne Stewart
• 金额: $ 13.2万
• 依托单位: University of Texas at Dallas
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-09-01 至 2016-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1443216&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: RAPID; Russia; Ukraine; Dynamics; Public

This project examines a pressing, time sensitive, topic with strong potential to threaten U.S. national security. How the U.S. public reacts to the deepening Ukraine crisis and other possible aggressive moves by Russia will have significant consequences for U.S. and global security. The project will investigate the dynamics of U.S. public attitudes towards the Ukraine crisis and other possible Russian actions in Eastern Europe, the Middle East and elsewhere. Recognizing the growing relevance of public attitudes for foreign policy, researchers have begun to delineate factors shaping citizen decision-making about military intervention, economic sanctions and humanitarian relief efforts. To date, however, progress in testing important theoretical ideas has been constrained by serious data limitations. Most studies examining forces affecting stability and change in public opinion have relied on aggregate data, thereby restricting the ability to explain what is happening at the individual level. Limited research analyzing individual-level attitudes typically has relied on data created for other purposes and important explanatory variables are unavailable. In contrast, the present study uses data gathered in multi-wave representative national panel surveys of the U.S. adult population to analyze a wide variety of theoretically motivated hypotheses about factors affecting public attitudes regarding the Ukraine crisis, ensuing events, and U.S. foreign policy more generally. Hypotheses tested will focus on understanding how basic value orientations and personality characteristics, benefit-cost calculations, cues provided by leader images and partisan attachments, and moral considerations combine to drive reactions to the Ukraine crisis and subsequent events as well as foreign-policy attitudes more generally. Building on recent work in cognitive psychology and experimental economics, newly available statistical techniques will be marshaled to investigate sources of heterogeneity in the effects of these factors. This project will conduct four large (N = 5000), representative national panel surveys of the American public over the next 12 months. Building on recent survey research funded by the U.K. Economics and Social Research Council (ESRC) on American, British and French reactions to the Syrian crisis and more general foreign policy attitudes among the publics of these three countries, the proposed study will produce very high quality, cost effective, science. The resulting multi-wave survey data set will provide information needed for to conduct sophisticated, leading-edge multivariate analyses of the etiology and dynamics of the American public's foreign policy attitudes in a period when relations between the United States and Russia are evolving in consequential ways. To leverage the project's impact, all survey data will be made available to the scholarly community within three months after the completion of fieldwork via a widely publicized project website. Major findings will be presented in papers submitted for publication in leading peer-reviewed journals and in a book-length manuscript. This study will facilitate expert and lay understanding of possible alternative reactions towards relations with Russia and America's foreign policy stance more generally during a time when significant threats to national security and world security are growing. To magnify its impacts outside the scholarly community, key findings will be conveyed to non-specialist audiences via graphs and short summary documents on the project website, as well as by "columns" and "blogs" in widely accessed print and electronic media.

该项目研究了一个紧迫，对时间敏感，主题，具有威胁美国国家安全的强大潜力。美国公众如何对乌克兰危机加深的危机以及俄罗斯的其他侵略性举动有何反应将对美国和全球安全产生重大影响。该项目将调查美国公众对乌克兰危机以及在东欧，中东和其他地方的其他可能行动的态度的动态。认识到公众对外交政策的态度日益增长的意义，研究人员已经开始描述塑造公民对军事干预，经济制裁和人道主义救济工作的决策的因素。但是，迄今为止，测试重要理论思想的进展受到严重的数据限制的限制。大多数研究影响稳定性和公众舆论变化的力量的研究都依赖于总数据，从而限制了解释个人层面发生的事情的能力。有限的研究分析个人级别态度通常依赖于用于其他目的创建的数据，而重要的解释变量不可用。相比之下，本研究使用了在美国成年人群的多波代表性国家小组调查中收集的数据来分析有关影响公众对乌克兰危机，随之而来的事件和美国外交政策的因素的多种主动的假设。 测试的假设将集中于了解基本价值取向和人格特征，福利成本计算，领导者图像和党派依恋的提示以及道德上的考虑与对乌克兰危机以及后续事件以及外交政策的反应相结合。 在认知心理学和实验经济学方面的最新工作的基础上，新近可用的统计技术将被封装，以调查这些因素影响的异质性来源。 该项目将在接下来的12个月内进行四个大型（n = 5000），代表性的美国公众面板调查。 基于英国经济学和社会研究委员会（ESRC）对美国，英国和法国对叙利亚危机的反应以及这三个国家公众的更一般外交政策态度的最新调查研究，该研究将产生非常高质量的，具有成本效益的科学。由此产生的多波浪调查数据集将提供所需的信息，以进行美国公众外交政策态度的病因和动态的复杂，领先的多元分析，以期在美国与俄罗斯之间的关系以相关性的方式发展。为了利用项目的影响，所有调查数据都将在通过广泛宣传的项目网站完成现场工作后的三个月内向学术社区提供。主要发现将在提交的论文中提出，以在领先的同行评审期刊和书本手稿中发表。 这项研究将促进专家并对与俄罗斯和美国外交政策的关系的可能替代反应有所了解，这是在对国家安全和世界安全的重大威胁时期的重大威胁期间。 为了扩大学术社区之外的影响，将通过图表和项目网站上的简短摘要文档以及通过广泛访问的印刷品和电子媒体传达给非专家的受众。