AGS-PRF: Towards an Improved Understanding of the Dynamical Effects of Sea Ice Loss on the Extratropical Northern Hemisphere Circulation and Extreme Weather

AGS-PRF：更好地了解海冰流失对北半球温带环流和极端天气的动态影响

• 批准号: 1433290
• 负责人: John Dwyer
• 金额: $ 8.6万
• 依托单位: Dwyer John G
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Fellowship Award
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2015-02-01 至 2017-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1433290&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: AGS; PRF; Towards; Improved; Understanding

This award provides funds for a 2-year Postdoctoral Research Fellowship for the PI, who will work under the mentorship of Professor Paul O'Gorman at the Massachussetts Institute of Technology. The research topic is the effect of sea ice loss on atmospheric circulation and extreme weather in the middle latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Three issues in the atmospheric response to sea ice decline are considered: 1) The location, strength, seasonality, and variability of the eddy-driven jet and associated storm tracks, as well as the dominant modes of atmospheric variability such as the Northern Annular Mode; 2) The propagation of atmospheric waves and eddies, and atmospheric blocking patterns; and 3) Extreme weather phenomena such as heat waves, cold spells, extreme precipitation, droughts, and intense extratropical cyclones. The research is conducted through analysis of observations and climate model simulations of sea ice decline and atmospheric circulation change. A hierarchy of models at varying levels of complexity is used to identify and isolate specific climate processes that determine the atmospheric response to sea ice loss. Factors to be considered include a possible relationship between sea ice loss and the mean available potential energy of the midlatitude atmosphere, the reduction in pole-to-equator temperature gradient accompanying sea ice loss, and changes in the timing of the seasonal cycle.The work has broader impacts given the societal consequences of extreme weather events and the benefits that would come for a better understanding of how these events may change due to the dramatic loss of sea ice in the Arctic. In addition, the project supports a postdoctoral researcher who is at the beginning of his scientific career, thereby providing for the future scientific workforce in this area. An undergraduate student will also be engaged in the research and mentored by the PI.

该奖项为 PI 提供为期 2 年的博士后研究奖学金，该研究员将在麻省理工学院 Paul O'Gorman 教授的指导下工作。 研究主题是海冰流失对北半球中纬度地区大气环流和极端天气的影响。 考虑了大气对海冰下降的响应中的三个问题：1）涡流驱动射流和相关风暴路径的位置、强度、季节性和变化性，以及大气变化的主要模式，例如北方环形模式; 2）大气波和涡流的传播以及大气阻挡模式； 3）热浪、寒潮、极端降水、干旱、强温带气旋等极端天气现象。 该研究是通过对海冰下降和大气环流变化的观测和气候模型模拟进行分析来进行的。 不同复杂程度的模型层次结构用于识别和隔离确定大气对海冰损失的响应的特定气候过程。 需要考虑的因素包括海冰损失与中纬度大气平均可用势能之间的可能关系、伴随海冰损失而导致的极地到赤道温度梯度的减小以及季节周期时间的变化。考虑到极端天气事件的社会后果以及更好地了解这些事件因北极海冰急剧消失而可能发生的变化所带来的好处，它具有更广泛的影响。 此外，该项目还为一名正处于科学职业生涯初期的博士后研究员提供支持，从而为该领域未来的科学劳动力提供支持。 一名本科生也将参与研究并接受 PI 的指导。