Collaborative Research: Testing the Impact of Climate Change on the Greenland Ice Sheet: Combining Past Climate Records with a Coupled Climate and Ice-Sheet Model

合作研究：测试气候变化对格陵兰冰盖的影响：将过去的气候记录与气候和冰盖耦合模型相结合

• 批准号: 1418074
• 负责人: Anders Carlson
• 金额: $ 17.86万
• 依托单位: Oregon State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-09-01 至 2017-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1418074&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Testing; Impact; Climate

This project is aimed at understanding the response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to past climate changes, with the ultimate goal of improving predictions of its response to future change. The investigators will compile all available data on the size of the ice sheet at times in the past 20,000 years. They will also gather data on the history of surface air temperatures, the accumulation rate of ice, and surrounding ocean temperatures from ice- and sediment core records. The climate records will be used as inputs to a numerical model of the regional climate and the Greenland Ice Sheet to investigate the response of the ice sheet to changes in climate conditions. Direct observations of changes in the Greenland Ice Sheet only span the past few decades, making it difficult to identify a trend and distinguish it from natural variability. The relative roles of oceanic and atmospheric warming in driving Greenland Ice Sheet retreat also remain poorly constrained and debated. Ascertaining past Greenland Ice Sheet response to a warming climate can provide important bounds on the rates at which the ice sheet can retreat and lose mass. The last deglaciation (20 to 6 thousand years ago) provides a natural experiment for assessing large-scale Greenland Ice Sheet response to changing conditions including rising atmospheric carbon dioxide.Three fundamental questions will be addressed by this project. 1) What drove the disparate behavior between west-east margins and southern margins of the ice sheet during the last deglaciation and how does this relate to abrupt deglacial climate change? 2) What is the relative importance of atmospheric versus oceanic warming in causing rapid ice margin retreat during the last deglaciation? 3) Given the large, sustained deglacial climate warming, what is the maximum rate that the Greenland Ice Sheet has delivered ice to the ocean as constrained by the geologic record and how do those rates compare with ice-sheet model simulations? Addressing these questions will 1) provide essential insight into how the broader Greenland Ice Sheet behaves in a warming world, 2) test the sensitivity of terrestrial versus marine ice-margin settings to warming, and 3) test the fidelity of a Greenland Ice Sheet model that can be applied to future simulations. The investigators will disseminate scientific results to the public through lectures and publications in popular science magazines, and to museums with movies and animations on the Magic Planet visualization system. The project will train a postdoc and Ph.D. student (geochronology-data analysis and numerical modeling) in a multi-disciplinary approach to paleoclimatology, glaciology, glacial geology, and paleoceanography. Undergraduates will work on the project, with a goal of recruiting under-represented groups in the geosciences.

该项目旨在了解格陵兰冰盖对过去气候变化的反应，最终目标是改进对其对未来变化反应的预测。研究人员将汇编过去 2 万年来有关冰盖大小的所有可用数据。他们还将从冰和沉积物核心记录中收集有关地表气温历史、冰积累率以及周围海洋温度的数据。气候记录将用作区域气候和格陵兰冰盖数值模型的输入，以研究冰盖对气候条件变化的响应。对格陵兰冰盖变化的直接观测仅跨越过去几十年，因此很难识别趋势并将其与自然变化区分开来。海洋和大气变暖在推动格陵兰冰盖消退中的相对作用也仍然缺乏约束和争论。确定格陵兰冰盖过去对气候变暖的反应可以为冰盖后退和质量损失的速度提供重要的界限。最后一次冰消期（20至6千年前）提供了一个自然实验，用于评估大规模格陵兰冰盖对不断变化的条件（包括大气二氧化碳上升）的反应。该项目将解决三个基本问题。 1）上次冰消期期间，是什么导致了冰盖东西边缘和南缘之间的不同行为？这与冰消期气候突变有何关系？ 2）在上次冰消期期间，大气与海洋变暖在导致冰缘快速退缩方面的相对重要性是什么？ 3）鉴于大规模、持续的冰消期气候变暖，受地质记录限制，格陵兰冰盖向海洋输送冰的最大速率是多少？这些速率与冰盖模型模拟相比如何？解决这些问题将 1) 提供关于更广泛的格陵兰冰盖在变暖的世界中如何表现的重要见解，2) 测试陆地与海洋冰缘设置对变暖的敏感性，以及 3) 测试格陵兰冰盖模型的保真度可以应用于未来的模拟。研究人员将通过讲座和科普杂志出版物向公众传播科学成果，并通过魔法星球可视化系统上的电影和动画向博物馆传播科学成果。该项目将培养一名博士后和博士。古气候学、冰川学、冰川地质学和古海洋学多学科方法的学生（地质年代学-数据分析和数值建模）。本科生将参与该项目，目标是招募地球科学领域代表性不足的群体。