WSC Category 3 Collaborative: Impacts of Climate Change on the Phenology of Linked Agriculture-Water Systems

WSC 第 3 类协作：气候变化对相关农业-水系统物候的影响

• 批准号: 1360415
• 负责人: William Ball
• 金额: $ 73.93万
• 依托单位: Johns Hopkins University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-09-01 至 2019-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1360415&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: WSC; Category; Collaborative; Impacts; Climate

1360415 (Ball), 1360345 (Brady), 1360424 (Ortiz-Bobea), and 1360395 (Wainger). This research will create an integrated trans-disciplinary system of data-driven econometric and numerical simulation models to understand how farmers adapt to climate change and how these altered practices are processed through a watershed to affect downstream estuarine ecosystem health (e.g., water quality, hypoxia). The project approach involves simultaneous collaborative and integrated activities by three research teams: Economics and Policy, Watershed, and Estuary. The Economics and Policy Team includes agricultural and environmental economists, whose empirical models feed and constrain the simulation models that are to be developed and linked by the Watershed and Estuary Teams. The Chesapeake Water System (CWS) is used as the study site because of its rich and long-term record of data. Synthesis of these data with models will enable comparative analyses to reveal broad relationships between human and natural drivers and processes that extrapolate well to water systems worldwide. This research will advance knowledge of: 1) how climate changes influence the timing and type of agricultural practices; 2) how temporal and spatial scales of watershed models influence simulated effects on nutrient delivery; 3) how direct influences of climate change on ecosystems compare to indirect influences that cascade through the watershed; and 4) how alternative management policies - with different rules and incentives - affect farming behavior and thus ecologic health. The effort will also advance understanding of how best to link economic and policy modeling approaches and scales with those of watershed and estuary simulation, as related to maintaining water system sustainability under climate change. Agricultural models of farmer adaptation will empirically demonstrate how spatial and temporal distributions of practices are altered by climate change, allowing transformation of the modeling approach and improving the observational grounding of the models. Further, this work will advance ability to test policies aimed at managing nutrient emissions from agriculture by characterizing conditions at scales relevant for understanding adoption/compliance. The Watershed Team will use process understanding - synthesized from data across multiple watersheds - to assess structural uncertainties in conventional models that are typically ignored in policy applications. The Estuary Team's data synthesis will search for climate-related shifts in timing and amounts of nutrient loading and use numerical simulation models to quantify effects on Bay health. The Economics and Policy Team will apply a novel state-contingent pollution-control approach that incorporates uncertainty. Through the development and linkage of these models, this project will help transform climate-change impact assessment and response, tackle basic knowledge gaps in the understanding of long-term sustainability of estuarine water systems, and develop new tools and understanding that are applicable to other water bodies influenced by agricultural land use. The areas of broader impact for this project include: 1) workforce recruitment and training; 2) transfer of tools and knowledge to environment management agencies; 3) enhanced public understanding and K-16 science education. In the first regard, the project will recruit, train and mentor 8-12 MS and PhD students toward careers in ecology, economics, hydrology, oceanography and engineering with foci on water quality, agricultural sustainability, environmental policy analysis, and climate change. Secondly, the team will continue to work very closely with investigators in USDA, USEPA, USGS, and other federal and state agencies working with the Chesapeake Bay Program to develop better integrated modeling tools for modeling support of environmental management. Interactions with the Bay management community will include regular meetings with collaborators, presentations of findings at CBP meetings and collaborative workshops. Thirdly, K-16 education will be improved through integration of products into a highly successful ongoing NSF COSEE program, including a new workshop for training 15 high school teachers.

1360415（鲍尔）、1360345（布雷迪）、1360424（奥尔蒂斯-博比亚）和 1360395（瓦恩格）。这项研究将创建一个由数据驱动的计量经济学和数值模拟模型组成的综合跨学科系统，以了解农民如何适应气候变化以及这些改变的做法如何通过流域进行处理以影响下游河口生态系统的健康（例如水质、缺氧） ）。该项目方法涉及三个研究团队的同步协作和综合活动：经济与政策、流域和河口。经济和政策团队包括农业和环境经济学家，他们的经验模型为流域和河口团队开发和连接的模拟模型提供支持和约束。切萨皮克水系统（CWS）因其丰富且长期的数据记录而被用作研究地点。这些数据与模型的综合将使比较分析能够揭示人类与自然驱动因素和过程之间的广泛关系，从而很好地推断出全球水系统。这项研究将增进以下方面的知识：1）气候变化如何影响农业实践的时间和类型； 2）流域模型的时间和空间尺度如何影响养分输送的模拟效果； 3) 气候变化对生态系统的直接影响与流域级联的间接影响相比如何； 4) 具有不同规则和激励措施的替代管理政策如何影响农业行为，从而影响生态健康。这项工作还将促进对如何最好地将经济和政策建模方法和规模与流域和河口模拟联系起来的理解，这与在气候变化下维持水系统的可持续性有关。农民适应的农业模型将凭经验证明气候变化如何改变实践的空间和时间分布，从而实现建模方法的转变并改善模型的观测基础。此外，这项工作将通过描述与理解采用/合规性相关的条件来测试旨在管理农业养分排放的政策的能力。 分水岭团队将使用过程理解（从多个流域的数据合成）来评估传统模型中通常在政策应用中被忽略的结构不确定性。河口团队的数据综合将寻找与气候相关的养分加载时间和数量的变化，并使用数值模拟模型来量化对海湾健康的影响。经济和政策团队将采用一种新颖的、包含不确定性的国家相关污染控制方法。通过这些模型的开发和联系，该项目将有助于转变气候变化影响评估和响应，解决对河口水系统长期可持续性理解的基本知识差距，并开发适用于其他领域的新工具和理解。受农业用地利用影响的水体。该项目影响更广泛的领域包括： 1) 劳动力招聘和培训； 2）向环境管理机构转让工具和知识； 3) 增强公众理解和K-16科学教育。首先，该项目将招募、培训和指导8-12名硕士和博士生，从事生态学、经济学、水文学、海洋学和工程领域的职业，重点关注水质、农业可持续发展、环境政策分析和气候变化。其次，该团队将继续与美国农业部、美国环保局、美国地质勘探局以及其他参与切萨皮克湾计划的联邦和州机构的调查人员密切合作，开发更好的集成建模工具，为环境管理的建模支持。与海湾管理社区的互动将包括与合作者的定期会议、在 CBP 会议和协作研讨会上介绍调查结果。第三，K-16教育将通过将产品整合到正在进行的非常成功的NSF COSEE计划中得到改善，其中包括一个用于培训15名高中教师的新研讨会。