WSC-Category 1 Collaborative Proposal: Coupled Multi-scale Economic, Hydrologic, and Estuarine Modeling to Assess Impacts of Climate Change on Water Quality Management

WSC-1 类合作提案：耦合多尺度经济、水文和河口建模以评估气候变化对水质管理的影响

• 批准号: 1360286
• 负责人: Raymond Najjar
• 金额: $ 11.98万
• 依托单位: Pennsylvania State Univ University Park
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-07-01 至 2018-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1360286&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: WSC; Category; Collaborative; Proposal; Coupled

1360280Easton1360285Li1360286NajjarWSC-Category 1 Collaborative Proposal: Coupled Multi-scale Economic, Hydrologic, and Estuarine Modeling to Assess Impacts of Climate Change on Water Quality ManagementOne of the most important questions facing our society is the potential impact of climate change on water quality, water resources and ecosystem function. Confounding issues such as urban sprawl and agricultural intensification make it difficult to determine the singular effects of climate change on water quality, ecosystem function and on the costs to achieve water quality goals. In view of the challenges facing the Chesapeake Bay (urban growth, agricultural intensification, climate change) an integrated multi-disciplinary approach is critical to provide policy makers with robust and reliable information. The approach that the research team will use is to integrate key climate, hydrologic, estuarine, and economic drivers at multiple scales which will provide water management options for the Chesapeake Bay system.One way to assess the impacts of climate change in the face of these other stressors is to develop coupled models that incorporate the pertinent controls on the water system. The overarching goal of this project is to develop a quantifiable, predictive framework that couples biogeochemical and hydrologic drivers of terrestrial nutrient export with climate change to evaluate the effects of ecosystem management on estuarine function and costs of water quality protection. To achieve this goal, the project proposes to work broadly across common regional Chesapeake Bay watershed physiographic gradients and dominant land uses (e.g., agriculture, forest and urban) using a multi-scale model evaluation of the impact of climate change and climate variability on the hydrologic, biogeochemical, and economic drivers of water quality degradation in the Chesapeake Bay estuary. Climate data will be down scaled from global and regional climate models and applied to watershed models to predict hydrologic activity and nutrient production across five test-bed watersheds where significant investments in land management (e.g., Best Management Practices) have been made. Test-bed model results will be used to populate an economic model to quantify the optimum tradeoff between water quality improvements and their associated costs. The watershed models will then be upscaled to predict hydrologic and nutrient delivery to an estuarine model to determine estuary impacts.

1360280EASTON1360285LI1360286NAJJARWSC类别1合作提案：耦合多规模的经济，水文和河口建模，以评估气候变化对我们社会所面临的最重要问题的气候变化对气候变化的影响的影响，这是气候变化的潜在影响水质，水质量，水质，水质，水质，水质，水质，水质的影响生态系统功能。令人困惑的问题，例如城市蔓延和农业强化，很难确定气候变化对水质，生态系统功能以及实现水质目标的成本的奇异影响。鉴于Chesapeake湾面临的挑战（城市增长，农业强化，气候变化）综合的多学科方法对于为政策制定者提供强大而可靠的信息至关重要。研究团队将使用的方法是在多个尺度上整合关键气候，水文，河口和经济驱动因素，这将为Chesapeake Bay System提供水管理选择。其他压力源是开发结合水系统上相关控制的耦合模型。该项目的总体目标是开发一个可量化的预测框架，并将陆地养分出口的生物地球化学和水文驱动因素与气候变化与气候变化相结合，以评估生态系统管理对河口质量功能和水质保护成本的影响。为了实现这一目标，该项目提议使用多规模的模型评估气候变化和气候变化对气候变化的影响，从切萨皮克湾河口的水质退化的水文，生物地球化学和经济驱动因素。气候数据将从全球和区域气候模型中缩减，并应用于流域模型，以预测五个测试床流域的水文活动和营养生产，在这些分水岭上进行了大量的土地管理投资（例如，最佳管理实践）。测试模型结果将用于填充经济模型，以量化水质改善与其相关成本之间的最佳权衡。然后，分水岭模型将被抬高，以预测到河口模型的水文和营养递送以确定河口的影响。