Collaborative Research: The Great Depression, the New Deal, and the Origins of Modern State Government Fiscal Policies

合作研究：大萧条、新政和现代州政府财政政策的起源

• 批准号: 1357662
• 负责人: Shawn Kantor
• 金额: $ 12.3万
• 依托单位: Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-03-15 至 2016-04-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1357662&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Great; Depression; New

The Great Recession of the 2000s has led to renewed debates about the appropriate responses of the national and state governments to economic crises and to long run trends. The debates and the government policies have their modern origins in the Great Depression and New Deal. The national and most state governments face continuing and future budgetary problems based on pension and health care promises that are currently underfunded. The 1930s offer the most relevant historical example to the current situation, as tax revenues at all levels dropped in the early 1930s, demands on state governments expanded, and the federal government provided a large amount of new funding to the states and established a host of policies. The states themselves began a fiscal revolution that expanded their capacity to generate revenue and the interactions between the national and state governments changed in ways that expanded the long run economic responsibilities of national and state governments in the economy. Thus, understanding how these policies were established in the 1930s can provide numerous insights into the modern policy issues. The Census Bureau stopped compiling state financial statistics during the years 1932 through 1936, leaving a gaping hole in a series that runs from 1915 to the present. This gap in the state fiscal data occurs precisely during the key years when modern state government policies were going through a fiscal revolution in response to the Depression and the New Deal. Our goal is to fill the gap by going directly to the reports of Treasurers and Auditors in each state to collect the financial data from 1930 through 1940. When the project is completed, we will have developed a panel data set that covers the period from 1915 through 1940 for the 48 contiguous states with information on total state revenues and expenditures, as well as with information on several revenue and expenditure categories. This panel will be matched up with a panel data set from 1919 through 1940 that contains information on state income per capita, farm activity, manufacturing activity, births, deaths, banking activity, federal spending in multiple categories, federal tax revenue in multiple categories, highway mileage built, construction in a variety of categories, weather, the political makeup of state legislatures and the governorship, and election results for congressional, presidential and gubernatorial elections.The broader impact of this proposal can be seen through the questions we will answer using this data. Some of the questions we plan to address are: Did the increased national government grants and loans encourage additional state spending and revenue or did the states respond by allowing the national spending to crowd out state spending and reduce tax collections? To what extent did the states introduce new types of taxes and new forms of expenditures in the 1920s and 1930s and what were the factors that led them to choose the specific forms? What was the impact of state deficits and surpluses on state economic activity after controlling for national spending?

2000年代的巨大衰退导致有关国家和州政府对经济危机和长期趋势的适当反应的重新辩论。 辩论和政府政策在大萧条和新交易中具有现代起源。 国家和大多数州政府根据目前资金不足的养老金和医疗保健承诺，面临持续和未来的预算问题。 1930年代为当前情况提供了最相关的历史例子，因为1930年代初的各个层次的税收收入都下降，对州政府的要求扩大了，联邦政府向各州提供了大量的新资金，并建立了许多政策。 各州本身开始了一场财政革命，该财政革命扩大了他们产生收入的能力，国家和州政府之间的相互作用发生了变化，从而扩大了国家和州政府在经济中长期以来的经济责任。 因此，了解如何在1930年代制定这些政策可以为现代政策问题提供许多见解。 人口普查局在1932年至1936年期间停止编制国家财务统计数据，在1915年到现在的系列赛中留下了一个巨大的漏洞。 该州财政数据的这一差距恰恰发生在现代政府政策以应对大萧条和新交易的情况下进行财政革命。 我们的目标是通过直接向每个州的司库和审计师的报告填补空白，以收集1930年至1940年的财务数据。当项目完成后，我们将开发一个面板数据集，该数据集涵盖了1915年至1940年的期限，从1940年到1940年，针对48个连续的州的总和州的续约州以及全州revenues和Deppenditures的信息以及几个续约以及几个次数的信息，以及几个均等的信息。 This panel will be matched up with a panel data set from 1919 through 1940 that contains information on state income per capita, farm activity, manufacturing activity, births, deaths, banking activity, federal spending in multiple categories, federal tax revenue in multiple categories, highway mileage built, construction in a variety of categories, weather, the political makeup of state legislatures and the governorship, and election results for congressional, presidential and gubernatorial选举。可以通过我们将使用此数据回答的问题来查看该提案的更广泛影响。我们计划解决的一些问题是：增加了国民政府的赠款和贷款鼓励了额外的国家支出和收入，还是各州通过允许国家支出挤出国家支出并减少税收收款来做出回应？ 各州在1920年代和1930年代引入了新型的税收和新形式的支出形式，这些因素是什么导致他们选择特定形式的因素？ 控制国家支出后，国家赤字和盈余对国家经济活动的影响是什么？