Collaborative Research: Reconstruction and Understanding of Antarctic Circulation Variability and Trends since 1905

合作研究：1905年以来南极环流变化和趋势的重建和理解

• 批准号: 1341527
• 负责人: Clara Deser
• 金额: $ 32.85万
• 依托单位: University Corporation For Atmospheric Res
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-05-01 至 2018-04-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1341527&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Reconstruction; Understanding; Antarctic; Collaborative; Research; Reconstruction; Understanding; Antarctic

Patterns of variability in sea level pressure (SLP) are a potential diagnostic of the Antarctic atmospheric circulation, and may be used to model polar forcing mechanisms such as stratospheric ozone depletion, greenhouse gas (GHG) increases, tropical SST changes and intrinsic extra-tropical climate dynamics. Previous work has shown some skill in gridded reconstructions of temperature over Antarctica, yet no similar Antarctic-focused data sets exist for SLP. A few studies have recognized the fact that SLP variability over the Antarctic is the largest of any comparably sized region on Earth. This implies low signal-to-noise ratios. For both modeling and observation-based studies, long time periods need to be considered, not just the data-rich instrumented period since ~1979, in order to assess the roles of various types of forcing and to detect their signals. The project seeks to answer two sets of questions: (1) How has the Antarctic circulation changed during the last century, both at individual stations and across the continent? Are changes in the past three decades unique in the last 100+ years? (2) What mechanisms are associated with these changes, both in the zonal mean and regional circulation patterns? What is the range of natural (internal) variability, and what role do changes in SSTs, GHG forcing, and/or ozone depletion play in driving any of these changes?

海平面压力（SLP）变异性的模式是对南极大气环流的潜在诊断，可用于模拟极性强迫机制，例如平流层臭氧耗竭，温室气体（GHG）增加，热带SST的变化和固有的特性外部气候动力学。先前的工作显示了南极温度的网格重建技巧，但对于SLP没有类似的以南极为中心的数据集。一些研究认识到，南极的SLP变异性是地球上任何相对大小的区域中最大的变化。这意味着低信噪比。对于基于建模和基于观察的研究，需要考虑长时间的长时间，而不仅仅是自1979年以来的富含数据的仪器时期，以评估各种强迫的作用并检测其信号。该项目旨在回答两组问题：（1）上个世纪，在各个车站和整个非洲大陆上，南极循环发生了什么变化？在过去的三十年中，过去100多年中的变化是独一无二的吗？ （2）在区域平均值和区域循环模式中，这些变化与这些变化有哪些机制？自然（内部）变异性的范围是什么？在驱动任何这些变化中，SSTS，GHG强迫和/或臭氧耗竭的变化在哪些变化中有什么作用？