Quantitative Uncertainty Modeling for Performance Based Earthquake Engineering

基于性能的地震工程的定量不确定性建模

• 批准号: 1333630
• 负责人: Shiling Pei
• 金额: $ 30.75万
• 依托单位: South Dakota State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2013-09-01 至 2013-10-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1333630&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Quantitative; Uncertainty; Modeling; Performance; Based

The ultimate goal of earthquake engineering is to mitigate the adverse effects of earthquakes on the society. This requires accurate prediction of structural responses to earthquakes. Because of numerous factors, such as earthquake intensity, material properties, and construction quality that are unknown, there exists a certain level of uncertainty in the responses of structures. In earthquake engineering, this uncertainty must be quantified and considered in design of buildings to ensure safety. Currently, uncertainties are accounted for using empirical equations in the design of buildings. In this project, a systematic method to accurately calculate the level of uncertainty in building responses during future earthquakes will be developed and demonstrated. Once the model is developed and implemented, it will provide a mechanism to increase the accuracy of earthquake response prediction, ultimately enabling engineers to build safer buildings.Currently, consideration of uncertainty in Perfomance Based Earthquake Engineering (PBEE) is simplified, empirical, and without experimental verification. The goal of this study is to develop a quantitative framework for uncertainty propagation in PBEE and verify it experimentally using a new approach termed herein as probabilistic shake table tests. Initially, an uncertainty propagation model will be developed based on principles of probability theory and structural dynamics. Then a specially designed shake table testing procedure, which will isolate the uncertainty contributions from different sources, will be conducted to collect the necessary data to calibrate and verify this model. Finally, the calibrated model will be applied to improve uncertainty modeling in performance based earthquake design and shake table test planning. This project will provide encouragement to the next generation of students to pursue a career in engineering through a Tri-Level (8th grade, 11th grade, and 2nd year college students) Academic Partnership program. Graduate students from different institutions will benefit from a project-based competition component developed as part of this project for graduate earthquake engineering classes.

地震工程的最终目标是减轻地震对社会的不利影响。这需要准确预测对地震的结构反应。 由于许多因素，例如地震强度，材料特性和未知的构造质量，因此在结构的响应中存在一定程度的不确定性。在地震工程中，必须在建筑物的设计中量化并考虑这种不确定性，以确保安全。当前，在建筑物设计中使用经验方程式存在不确定性。 在这个项目中，将开发和证明一种系统的方法，用于准确计算未来地震期间建筑反应的不确定性水平。一旦模型开发和实施，它将提供一种机制来提高地震响应预测的准确性，最终使工程师能够建造更安全的建筑物。目前，考虑基于完美的地震工程（PBEE）的不确定性，可以简化，经验性，没有经验性，并且没有实验验证。这项研究的目的是开发一个定量框架，以在PBEE中进行不确定性传播，并使用此处称为概率摇桌测试的新方法对其进行实验验证。最初，将根据概率理论和结构动力学原理开发不确定性传播模型。然后，将进行专门设计的摇桌测试程序，该过程将隔离不同来源的不确定性贡献，以收集必要的数据以校准和验证该模型。最后，校准模型将用于改善基于性能的地震设计和摇桌测试计划中的不确定性建模。该项目将鼓励下一代学生通过三级（八年级，11年级和二年级的大学生）学术合作伙伴计划从事工程职业。来自不同机构的研究生将受益于基于项目的竞争组成部分，作为研究生地震工程课程的该项目的一部分。