ICES: Large: Collaborative Research: The Role of Space, Time and Information in Controlling Epidemics

ICES：大型：协作研究：空间、时间和信息在控制流行病中的作用

• 批准号: 1216000
• 负责人: Anil Kumar Vullikanti
• 金额: $ 29.5万
• 依托单位: Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2012
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2012-07-01 至 2016-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1216000&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: ICES; Large; Collaborative; Research; Role

The control of epidemics, broadly defined to range from human diseases such as influenza and smallpox to malware in communication networks, relies crucially on interventions such as vaccinations and anti-virals (in human diseases) or software patches (for malware). These interventions are almost always voluntary directives from public agencies; however, people do not always adhere to such recommendations, and make individual decisions based on their specific "self interest". Additionally, people alter their contacts dynamically, and these behavioral changes have a huge impact on the dynamics and the effectiveness of these interventions, so that "good" intervention strategies might, in fact, be ineffective, depending upon the individual response. The goal of this project is to study the foundations of policy design for controlling epidemics, using a broad class of epidemic games on complex networks involving uncertainty in network information, temporal evolution and learning. Models will be proposed to capture the complexity of static and temporal interactions and patterns of information exchange, including the possibility of failed interventions and the potential for moral hazard. The project will also study specific policies posed by public agencies and network security providers for controlling the spread of epidemics and malware, and will develop resource constrained mechanisms to implement them in this framework.This project will integrate approaches from Computer Science, Economics, Mathematics, and Epidemiology to give intellectual unity to the study and design of public health policies and has the potential for strong dissertation work in all these areas. Education and outreach is an important aspect of the project, and includes curriculum development at both the graduate and under-graduate levels. A multi-disciplinary workshop is also planned as part of the project.

流行病的控制范围广泛，从流感和天花等人类疾病到通信网络中的恶意软件，主要依赖于疫苗接种和抗病毒药物（针对人类疾病）或软件补丁（针对恶意软件）等干预措施。这些干预措施几乎都是公共机构的自愿指令；然而，人们并不总是遵守这些建议，而是根据自己的具体“自身利益”做出个人决定。 此外，人们动态地改变他们的接触，这些行为变化对这些干预措施的动态和有效性产生巨大影响，因此“好的”干预策略实际上可能是无效的，这取决于个人的反应。 该项目的目标是研究控制流行病的政策设计的基础，在涉及网络信息、时间演化和学习的不确定性的复杂网络上使用广泛的流行病博弈。 将提出模型来捕捉静态和时间交互以及信息交换模式的复杂性，包括干预失败的可能性和道德风险的可能性。该项目还将研究公共机构和网络安全提供商为控制流行病和恶意软件传播而提出的具体政策，并将开发资源约束机制以在此框架中实施这些政策。该项目将整合计算机科学、经济学、数学、流行病学为公共卫生政策的研究和设计提供智力统一，并有潜力在所有这些领域开展强有力的论文工作。教育和推广是该项目的一个重要方面，包括研究生和本科生的课程开发。 作为该项目的一部分，还计划举办多学科研讨会。