RAPID: Decadal Variability of the American Monsoons--An Assessment of CMIP5 Simulation

RAPID：美国季风的年代际变化--CMIP5模拟的评估

• 批准号: 1126804
• 负责人: Leila Carvalho
• 金额: $ 3万
• 依托单位: University of California-Santa Barbara
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-07-01 至 2013-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1126804&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: RAPID; Decadal; Variability; American; Monsoons

This is one of 16 Rapid Response (RAPID) projects funded as the result of a Dear Colleague Letter (NSF 11-006) encouraging diagnostic analyses of climate model simulations prepared for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5). Research conducted in these projects is expected to lead to more detailed model intercomparisons, better understanding of robust model behaviors, and better understanding and quantification of uncertainty in future climate simulations.This project examines the simulation of the American Monsoon System (AMS) in simulations of the recent past from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project verson 5 (CMIP5). The main goals are to develop an extensive assessment of how realistic simulations are in representing the observed characteristics of the American Monsoon System (AMS) in the recent past, and to assess uncertainties in projected decadal climate changes in the AMS. More specifically, the project1) Assesses the skill of CMIP5 model simulations in representing the climatological and statistical characteristics of the monsoons in the Americas including: circulation and precipitation features, subseasonal variance, onsets and demises, amplitudes and cross equatorial transitions.2) Determines which CMIP5 models realistically represent the spatiotemporal variability of the monsoons in the present climate including near-term trends, frequency of very dry/wet seasons and statistical distributions of extreme precipitation events.3) Examines which CMIP5 models skillfully represent the observed relationships between remote forcings and the American monsoons. These include the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), Atlantic Ocean and Intra-Americas Sea forcings.4) Seeks to determine how much of the climate changes projected for the next decades in the Americas are explained by natural decadal variability and how much by greenhouse gases increases.The broader impact of the project lies in its support of the IPCC AR5, which is intended to provide information on climate change and its consequences to decision makers worldwide. The AMS affects water resources, agriculture, human health, ecosystems and biodiversity throughout a large and densely populated portion of the Americas. The impact of climate change on the AMS is not known, and this research will help to determine the extent to which models used to project climate change are capable of accurately representing the AMS system and its variability and change over the observed record.

这是一封亲爱同事的信 (NSF 11-006) 资助的 16 个快速响应 (RAPID) 项目之一，鼓励对政府间气候变化专门委员会第五次评估报告 (IPCC AR5) 准备的气候模型模拟进行诊断分析。在这些项目中进行的预计将导致更详细的模型相互比较，更好地理解稳健的模型行为，以及更好地理解和量化未来气候模拟中的不确定性。该项目研究了美国季风系统的模拟(AMS) 在气候模型比较项目版本 5 (CMIP5) 的近期模拟中的主要目标是对模拟在代表美国季风系统 (AMS) 观测到的特征方面的真实程度进行广泛的评估。更具体地说，该项目1) 评估 CMIP5 模型模拟在代表气候和统计特征方面的技能。美洲季风，包括：环流和降水特征、次季节变化、爆发和消退、振幅和跨赤道转变。2) 确定哪些 CMIP5 模型能够真实地代表当前气候下季风的时空变化，包括近期趋势、季风频率非常干燥/潮湿的季节和极端降水事件的统计分布。3) 检查哪些 CMIP5 模型巧妙地代表了远程强迫和美国观测到的关系这些包括马登-朱利安涛动 (MJO)、厄尔尼诺/南方涛动 (ENSO)、北大西洋涛动 (NAO)、太平洋年代际涛动 (PDO)、南极涛动 (AAO)、大西洋和美洲内部海洋强迫。 .4) 寻求确定美洲未来几十年预测的气候变化有多少是由自然年代际变率解释的，有多少是由温室效应解释的该项目更广泛的影响在于它对 IPCC AR5 的支持，该报告旨在向全世界决策者提供有关气候变化及其后果的信息，AMS 影响整个水资源、农业、人类健康、生态系统和生物多样性。美洲大部分地区人口稠密，气候变化对 AMS 的影响尚不清楚，这项研究将有助于确定用于预测气候变化的模型能够在多大程度上准确地表示 AMS 系统及其变异性。并更改观察到的记录。