A quantitative analysis of heuristics and discounting models of intertemporal choice

跨期选择的启发式和贴现模型的定量分析

• 批准号: 1062045
• 负责人: Michel Regenwetter
• 金额: $ 47.91万
• 依托单位: University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-08-01 至 2016-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1062045&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: quantitative; analysis; heuristics; discounting; models; quantitative; analysis; heuristics; discounting; models

The Discounted Utility model has, historically, been regarded as the appropriate model of how people make choices between intertemporal prospects (e.g., between receiving some amount of money today versus that amount of money plus interest at some future date.) However, there is abundant evidence that actual behavior systematically departs from the predictions of the model. A variety of alternatives have been proposed in the literature. Some of these depart from Discounted Utility's assumption of exponential discounted while others assume that intertemporal choices are made based on the application of simple decision heuristics. In this research project, the PI (in close cooperation with Dr. Jeffrey R. Steven's lab at the Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Germany) will develop full-fledged probabilistic specifications of competing theories for intertemporal choice and apply quantitative methods immune from aggregation artificacts to test their relative veracity. Intertemporal choices underlie many of society's most pressing decisions, from collective decisions such as global climate change and the war on obesity to more personal decisions such as consuming alcohol and investing in retirement plans. Virtually all decisions we make have a temporal component. This makes intertemporal choice relevant across a broad range of disciplines (e.g., economics, psychology, biology, neuroscience, finance, medicine, environmental science). Despite the extensive interest in this topic, there still is a critical gap in our knowledge of how individuals make intertemporal choices. The research proposed in this application is significant because it will allow us to investigate the different cognitive processes that individuals use when making intertemporal choices.  Equally significant is the question of interindividual differences. Rather than dismissing variation as noise in the data, we expect to show strong qualitative differences among different people. In terms of broader impacts, this may  allow simple ``nudges'' to help people make better decisions by customizing individual decision scenarios to focus on the long-term benefits of a healthy lifestyle, a secure financial future, and environmental stewardship. The scientific findings will impact future training of basic and applied decision scientists. By eliminating major sources of artifacts, the project can help improve all levels of societal decision making in the future.

从历史上看，折现的公用事业模型被认为是人们如何在跨订单前景之间做出选择的适当模型（例如，在今天收到一定数量的钱与在将来的某个日期获得利息之间的金额加上利息之间。文献中提出了各种替代方案。这些部门中的某些部门是从折扣工具中的假设假设指数折扣的，而另一些部门则假定基于简单决策启发式方法的应用，做出了跨期的选择。在该研究项目中，PI（与德国Max Planck人类发展研究所的自适应行为和认知中心与Jeffrey R. Steven博士的实验室密切合作），将开发出针对竞争性理论的全面概率规范，以实现跨越的选择，并采用量身定量方法来测试其相对验证其相对真实性的定量方法。跨期的选择是许多社会最紧迫的决定，从全球气候变化和肥胖战争等集体决策到更多个人决定，例如消费酒精和投资退休计划。实际上，我们做出的所有决策都有一个临时组成部分。这使得跨时期的选择在广泛的学科（例如经济学，心理学，生物学，神经科学，金融，医学，环境科学）中相关。尽管对这个主题充满了兴趣，但我们对个人如何做出跨期选择的了解仍然存在一个危险的差距。在本应用程序中提出的研究很重要，因为它将允许我们研究个人在做出跨期选择时使用的不同认知过程。同样重要的是个体差异的问题。我们希望在不同人之间表现出强烈的定性差异，而不是将变化作为数据中的噪声。在更广泛的影响方面，这可能会允许简单的``轻推''来帮助人们通过自定义个人决策方案来帮助做出更好的决策，以专注于健康生活方式的长期利益，安全的财务未来和环境管理。科学发现将影响基本和应用决策科学家的未来培训。通过消除主要文物来源，该项目可以帮助改善未来的所有社会决策。