Doctoral Dissertation Research: Shocks, Trauma, Behavioral Parameters and Subjective Expectations: The Effects of Abduction and Violence on Economic Behavior in Northern Uganda

博士论文研究：冲击、创伤、行为参数和主观预期：绑架和暴力对乌干达北部经济行为的影响

• 批准号: 1061723
• 负责人: Christopher Barrett
• 金额: $ 1.97万
• 依托单位: Cornell University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-08-01 至 2013-10-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1061723&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Doctoral; Dissertation; Research; Shocks; Trauma

As the 2011 World Development Report notes one in four individuals live either in fragile and conflict-affected countries or in ones with very high levels of criminal violence. Moreover, not a single Millennium Development Goal (MDG) has been achieved by a low income fragile or conflict-affected country. Despite the wide ranging influence of conflict and its importance to country and individual-level development outcomes, economics has a limited understand of its long run consequences. Economics almost exclusively focuses on tangible consequences, such as assets loss or nutritional and educational attainment. In doing so, economics ignores the possibility that the severity of a shock is not only reflected in its destruction but also in its traumatic nature. In contrast to this view, an extensive mental health literature finds that traumatic experiences can lead to behavioral changes that persist across decades. These changes may explain, for instance, why households with identical losses can have heterogeneous responses after shocks, or why shocks may lead to changed behavior despite no visible changes to constraints or opportunities.This project investigates the lasting effects of traumatic experiences on post-conflict behavior and outcomes in Northern Uganda. The research re-interviews an ex ante representative sample of young men, many of whom were abducted by rebels forces and experienced violence. In particular, we focus on two main pathways: economic behavioral parameters, such as risk aversion, time preferences and trust, and the subjective probabilities of future events. For instance, mental health studies of war-affected children report behavioral changes that are consistent with shifts in the economic behavioral parameters (risk aversion, time preferences, and trust) that are believed to explain much of the heterogeneity of economic outcomes. Consequently, the project will use recent innovations in field experiments to elicit estimates of these behavioral parameters and examine their impact on corresponding economic outcomes. In doing so, we add to the handful of recent economics studies that challenge the traditional view in economics that behavioral parameters are fixed and therefore are not affected by shocks. The findings from these new studies are ambiguous, finding changes in behavior but unclear impacts of economic outcomes. This project will both confirm the impact of trauma on behavioral parameters and examine whether the prior contradictory findings regarding the effects on economic outcomes were due the setting of the studies or the choice of outcomes.Although the mental health and economics literature differ on why behavior may change after shocks, the ultimate changes should be reflected in the subjective probabilities of future uncertain events. Only one study in economics has studied the impact of traumatic events on both behavior and subjective probabilities. Whereas the previous study only looked at shocks related to the traumatic event, by eliciting subjective probabilities on a wide range of shocks, we will be able to see whether traumatic experiences affect the subjective probabilities of both traumatic and non-traumatic events. This possibility is an alternative explanation for such findings in prior research on selective changes in behavior following exposure to violence.Several new avenues of research are opened by moving beyond traditional models of shocks in economics. In particular, post-conflict as well as other post-shock interventions may need to be reconsidered as individuals may have varying abilities to take advantage of them. For instance, cash transfers may be less useful when the most affected have altered time preferences or risk aversion parameters. Similarly, income levels and assets may no longer fully capture vulnerability in post-conflict areas. To conclude, the proposed research addresses an important gap in our understanding of the effects of shocks on behavior: what are the effects of traumatic experiences on behavioral parameters, economic outcomes and subjective probabilities? The project answers this by examining the ongoing effects of child abductions and exposure to violence among young men in Northern Uganda. In addition to helping to connect the mental health and economics literatures, the project contributes to economics, policy and the individuals for whom trauma persists.

正如2011年世界发展报告所指出的那样，四分之一的人生活在脆弱和受冲突影响的国家或犯罪暴力程度很高的国家中。此外，低收入或受冲突影响的国家还没有实现千年发展目标（MDG）。尽管冲突及其对国家和个人级别发展成果的重要性广泛，但经济学对其长期后果的理解有限。经济学几乎只关注切实的后果，例如资产损失，营养和教育成就。这样一来，经济学却忽略了冲击的严重性不仅反映在其破坏中，而且反映在其创伤性上。与这种观点相反，广泛的心理健康文献发现创伤经历会导致数十年来持续存在的行为改变。例如，这些变化可能解释了为什么损失相同的家庭在冲击后会产生异质反应，或者为什么尽管对约束或机会没有明显的变化，但冲击可能导致行为发生变化。该项目研究了乌干达北部冲突后的创伤经历对冲突后行为的持久影响。该研究重新审视了年轻人的前代表样本，其中许多人被叛军绑架并经历了暴力。特别是，我们专注于两个主要途径：经济行为参数，例如规避风险，时间偏好和信任，以及未来事件的主观概率。例如，受战争影响儿童的心理健康研究报告了与经济行为参数的转变（风险规避，时间偏好和信任）相一致的行为变化，这些变化被认为可以解释经济结果的许多异质性。因此，该项目将利用现场实验中的最新创新来引起对这些行为参数的估计，并检查其对相应经济结果的影响。通过这样做，我们增加了一些最近的经济学研究，这些研究挑战了经济学的传统观点，即行为参数是固定的，因此不受冲击的影响。这些新研究的发现是模棱两可的，发现行为的变化，但对经济成果的影响不清楚。该项目既可以证实创伤对行为参数的影响，又检查了先前关于对经济结果影响的矛盾发现是由于研究的设定还是结果的选择。尽管精神健康和经济学文献在冲击后可能会发生变化，但在冲击后的行为可能有所不同，但应在震惊之后发生变化，但最终的变化应在未来不确定的未来不确定事件的主观概率中反映。只有一项经济学研究研究了创伤事件对行为和主观概率的影响。尽管先前的研究仅研究了与创伤事件有关的冲击，但通过引起各种冲击的主观概率，我们将能够查看创伤经历是否影响创伤性和非创伤事件的主观概率。这种可能性是对暴露暴力后的选择性变化的先前研究的此类发现的另一种解释。研究的新途径是通过超越经济学冲击模式的传统模型来开放的。特别是，由于个人可能具有不同的能力来利用它们，因此可能需要重新考虑冲突后以及其他震动后干预措施。例如，当受影响最大的时间偏好或风险规避参数发生变化时，现金转移可能会降低。同样，收入水平和资产可能不再完全捕获冲突后地区的脆弱性。总而言之，拟议的研究解决了我们对冲击行为影响的理解的重要差距：创伤经历对行为参数，经济结果和主观概率的影响是什么？该项目通过研究乌干达北部的年轻男子的持续影响以及暴露于暴力的持续影响来解决这一问题。除了帮助联系心理健康和经济学文献外，该项目还为经济学，政策和创伤持续存在的个人做出了贡献。