Type 1- L02170391: Collaborative Research: Atmosphere-Ocean Coupling Causing Ice Shelf Melt in Antarctica (ACCIMA)

类型 1- L02170391：合作研究：大气-海洋耦合导致南极洲冰架融化 (ACCIMA)

• 批准号: 1049081
• 负责人: David Holland
• 金额: $ 37.48万
• 依托单位: New York University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-02-15 至 2015-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1049081&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Type; L02170391; Collaborative; Research; Atmosphere; Type; L02170391; Collaborative; Research; Atmosphere

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) represents about 10% of the entire Antarctic ice sheet. The WAIS is currently losing mass due to several of its outlet glaciers draining into the Amundsen Sea. The rate of this mass loss, over natural accretion through snowfall, has also been increasing in recent years. One possible reason for this is increased basal melt of the seaward floating ice shelves of the region's terminal glaciers. This can result from a change in either the temperature, or circulation patterns, of the relatively warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) that enters the subglacial zone, providing heat to increase the basal melt rate. Because much of the WAIS bed lies well below sea-level and is therefore theoretically unstable, there is considerable interest in its stability and mobility of the WAIS ice shelves in a warming ocean. Complete disintegration of the WAIS could in principle raise global sea levels by as much as 4.8 m. Understanding the coupling of large scale atmospheric circulation patterns such as the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), changes in ocean temperature and current regimes, along with the complexity of glacial bed physics and importantly the timescales over which these components interact is a challenging modeling and computational task. A team of researchers from Ohio State, Old Dominion University and NYU will develop and couple components of an earth systems model for the Southern Ocean with a regional emphasis on the West Antarctic. The component system models to be coupled include the polar-optimized version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (Polar WRF) for the atmosphere. The ocean component will be the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), and the sea ice component will be the Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE). Retrospective decadal simulations will be done to understand recent past variability. Downscaled future projections for Antarctica will be driven by the global National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model (CCSM or its equivalent), which is also being used for the IPCC 5th Assessment simulations.This proposal is a responsive submission to the CRI-EaSM solicitation with goals to maximize the utility of available observational and model data for impact assessments through scaling activities and to effectively translate model results and associated uncertainties into the scientific basis for well-informed human adaptation to and management decisions for climate change, specifically addressing the risk of significant sea-level rise in the next century.

南极冰盖（WAIS）约占整个南极冰盖的10％。由于其几个出口冰川排入阿蒙森海，因此目前正在失去质量。近年来，这种质量损失比自然积分的速度也在增加。造成这种情况的一个可能是增加了该地区终端冰川的海底浮冰架的基础融化。这可能是由于进入冰川下区的相对温暖的圆极深水（CDW）的温度或循环模式的变化可能导致的，从而提供热量以增加基础熔体速率。由于大部分Wais床都位于海平面以下，因此在理论上是不稳定的，因此它对它在温暖的海洋中的冰架上的稳定性和机动性引起了极大的兴趣。 原则上，WAI的完全瓦解可能会使全球海平面提高多达4.8 m。了解大规模大气循环模式的耦合，例如El-Nino Southern振荡（ENSO）和南环模式（SAM），海洋温度和当前状态的变化，以及冰川床物理学的复杂性以及这些组件相互作用的时间表的复杂性是一项具有挑战性的建模和计算任务。来自俄亥俄州立大学，旧自治领大学和纽约大学的一组研究人员将开发南大洋的地球系统模型的组成部分，并重点是西南极。要耦合的组件系统模型包括天气研究的极地优化版本和大气的预测模型（Polar WRF）。海洋组件将是区域海洋建模系统（ROMS），海冰组件将是Los Alamos Sea Ice模型（CICE）。回顾性十年模拟将进行了解以了解最近的过去变异性。全球国家大气研究中心（NCAR）社区气候模型（CCSM或其等效）将驱动缩小的对南极的未来预测，这也被用于IPCC第五次评估模拟。这项建议是对CRI-EASM的响应措施的响应效果，并通过效率进行效果，以实现型号，以实现型号，以实现型号，以实现型号，以实现型号，以实现效果，以实现效果，以实现效果的效果，以实现效果，以实现效果的效果。不确定的人类对气候变化的适应和管理决策的科学基础，特别解决了下个世纪海平面上升的风险。