CNH: Collaborative Research: Northern Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia and Land Use in the Watershed: Feedback and Scale Interactions

CNH：合作研究：墨西哥湾北部缺氧和流域土地利用：反馈和尺度相互作用

• 批准号: 1010009
• 负责人: Sergey Rabotyagov
• 金额: $ 20.03万
• 依托单位: University of Washington
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2010-10-01 至 2014-09-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1010009&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CNH; Collaborative; Research; Northern; Gulf

Each year an oxygen-depleted (hypoxia) zone forms in the Northern Gulf of Mexico, negatively impacting coast and marine fisheries and local economies. The spatial extent of this zone is about three times the target goal of the national Hypoxia Action Plan. The scientific assessment of causes and consequences of these hypoxic conditions indicates that both nitrogen and phosphorous loadings from the Upper Mississippi River Basin and Ohio River Basin stream systems are significant contributors to the size and duration of the zone. Land use, primarily from agriculture, is a key driver of these nutrient loadings and is the result of decisions made by more than 500,000 individual producers in those river basins. However, understanding the biogeochemical processes alone is insufficient to understanding the dynamics of this complex system. This project takes a fresh look at the natural and human dynamics of this enormous system by developing integrated and data-rich models that capture the spatial and temporal non-linearity associated with scaling up the impacts from individuals to the watershed under different scenarios. The research will produce the first complete modeling system that traces agricultural land-use decisions, made at the field scale in the Upper Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Basins through both environmental and hydrologic components, to downstream water quality effects, including the size of the hypoxic zone in the Gulf of Mexico. Uniquely, the modeling effort will incorporate feedbacks via the market, and feedbacks via public policy in the form of adaptive management. This project will demonstrate how to integrate human and natural process models using the powerful tools of evolutionary algorithms. Hypoxia is a growing environmental problem for coastal habitats elsewhere in the United States and many other countries. The development of a general modeling framework from this research will provide an effective tool for the design and implementation of policy to address both Gulf hypoxia and water quality concerns, and identify cost-effective placement of conservation practices within the landscape. This project will strengthen an interdisciplinary collaboration among scientists at five different institutions, and will support the training of graduate and undergraduate students.

墨西哥湾北部每年都会形成一个缺氧（缺氧）区，对沿海和海洋渔业以及当地经济产生负面影响。 该区域的空间范围约为国家缺氧行动计划目标的三倍。 对这些缺氧条件的原因和后果的科学评估表明，来自密西西比河流域上游和俄亥俄河流域河流系统的氮和磷负荷对该区域的大小和持续时间有重要影响。 主要来自农业的土地利用是这些养分负荷的关键驱动因素，并且是这些河流流域超过 500,000 个个体生产者决策的结果。 然而，仅了解生物地球化学过程不足以了解这个复杂系统的动力学。 该项目通过开发数据丰富的集成模型，重新审视这个巨大系统的自然和人类动态，这些模型捕获与在不同情景下扩大个人对分水岭的影响相关的空间和时间非线性。 该研究将产生第一个完整的建模系统，通过环境和水文成分，追踪密西西比州上游、俄亥俄州和田纳西盆地实地规模的农业土地利用决策，直至下游水质影响，包括河流规模。墨西哥湾缺氧区。 独特的是，建模工作将以适应性管理的形式纳入市场反馈和公共政策反馈。 该项目将演示如何使用强大的进化算法工具集成人类和自然过程模型。对于美国其他地方和许多其他国家的沿海栖息地来说，缺氧是一个日益严重的环境问题。 这项研究开发的通用模型框架将为政策的设计和实施提供有效的工具，以解决海湾缺氧和水质问题，并确定景观中具有成本效益的保护实践。 该项目将加强五个不同机构的科学家之间的跨学科合作，并将支持研究生和本科生的培训。