A Multi-level, Agent-based Model for Identifying the Factors that Enable or Constrain International Climate Change Negotiations

用于识别促进或限制国际气候变化谈判的因素的多层次、基于主体的模型

• 批准号: 0962258
• 负责人: Mark Borsuk
• 金额: $ 70万
• 依托单位: Dartmouth College
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2010-05-01 至 2013-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0962258&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Multi; level; Agent; based; Model

Climate change policy represents a global, collective decision-making problem unprecedented in scale and complexity. Scientific methods for evaluating international policy, however, have tended to follow two separate lines of analysis, neither of which is fully instructive for real world settings. One approach, typically referred to as Integrated Assessment Modeling, is largely pursued by economists and decision theorists and focuses on assessment of the long-term costs and benefits of various greenhouse gas reduction scenarios. A second approach originates with game theorists and focuses on evaluating international structures and conditions likely to lead to effective cooperative climate agreements. Both types of analysis rely heavily on the simplifying assumption that national economies are orchestrated by perfectly rational central planners who have the information and ability to make optimal decisions despite the presence of pervasive uncertainty about mitigation costs, climate damages, and future states of the economy. In reality, the outcome and implementation of any international climate agreement will be the net result of a complex interplay of stakeholders at multiple levels who have limited ability to make optimal decisions and have differing beliefs, power, and incentive structures. Therefore, it is likely that the existing assessment tools overlook some important factors that may enable or constrain effective climate policy formation.This project will develop of new tool for international climate policy analysis based on agent-based modeling (ABM) that facilitates a more realistic and simultaneous treatment of the diverse forces which influence multi-party decisions. The model will represent both the international climate negotiation process, as well as the key dynamics of domestic economies relevant to energy and climate change. Some key questions to be explored with our model include: Are there patterns of innovation, adaptation, or climate damages that emerge from an ABM representation of an economy that are obscured by conventional assessments? Does an ABM that accounts for heterogeneity of beliefs and incentives at the national level and heterogeneity of power and vulnerability at the international level explain the negotiation outcomes historically observed? Does the design of effective international negotiation structures depend on the degree of heterogeneity occurring either between or within national economies? This research will help inform stakeholders -- including citizens, interest groups, businesses, governments, and international organizations -- so that they better understand the opportunities in a globally connected network of decision makers.

气候变化政策是一个规模和复杂性前所未有的全球性集体决策问题。然而，评估国际政策的科学方法往往遵循两种不同的分析路线，这两种分析方法对于现实世界环境都没有充分的指导意义。一种方法通常被称为综合评估模型，主要由经济学家和决策理论家采用，重点是评估各种温室气体减排情景的长期成本和效益。第二种方法源自博弈论学家，重点评估可能导致有效合作气候协议的国际结构和条件。两种类型的分析都严重依赖于一个简化的假设，即国民经济是由完全理性的中央计划者精心策划的，尽管缓解成本、气候损害和未来经济状况普遍存在不确定性，但他们拥有做出最佳决策的信息和能力。事实上，任何国际气候协议的结果和实施都将是多个层面的利益相关者复杂相互作用的最终结果，这些利益相关者做出最佳决策的能力有限，并且具有不同的信念、权力和激励结构。因此，现有的评估工具很可能忽视了一些可能促进或限制有效气候政策形成的重要因素。该项目将开发基于代理建模（ABM）的国际气候政策分析新工具，以促进更现实的气候政策分析。并同时处理影响多方决策的多种力量。该模型将代表国际气候谈判进程，以及与能源和气候变化相关的国内经济的关键动态。我们的模型需要探讨的一些关键问题包括：ABM 经济表征中是否存在被传统评估所掩盖的创新、适应或气候损害模式？ 考虑到国家层面信念和激励的异质性以及国际层面权力和脆弱性的异质性的反导措施是否能够解释历史上观察到的谈判结果？有效国际谈判结构的设计是否取决于国家经济之间或内部发生的异质性程度？ 这项研究将有助于向利益相关者（包括公民、利益团体、企业、政府和国际组织）提供信息，以便他们更好地了解全球互联的决策者网络中的机会。