CAREER: Bringing a dynamic, stochastic, and computational, understanding to subjective probabilities

职业：对主观概率进行动态、随机和计算的理解

• 批准号: 0955410
• 负责人: Susan Ravizza
• 金额: $ 51.04万
• 依托单位: Michigan State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2010-06-01 至 2015-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0955410&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CAREER; Bringing; dynamic; stochastic; computational

We rely on the probability judgments of experts and laypeople every day. Space shuttles are launched not only on the basis of weather forecasts, but also on an engineer's subjective opinion that a part will or will not fail. Military missions and political policies are put in place using intelligence analysts' beliefs that an event will occur or has occurred. Without doubt the use of probability judgments to make decisions makes the accuracy of subjective probabilities of utmost importance. Indeed the accuracy of subjective probabilities has been well studied in the cognitive and decision sciences. Yet, an equally valuable aspect of subjective probabilities is the amount of time it takes judges to formulate their estimates. Clearly, the time a judge takes to make a probability judgment has external costs to both the judge and the decision maker. Yet, little is known about the internal time course of subjective probability judgments. Consequently, the impact these external costs have on subjective probabilities and their accuracy is not known. In this project the Principal Investigator pursues research examining how variables external to the judge (e.g., time pressure; rewards and penalties) and internal to the judge (e.g., attention and sequential effects) impact the time course and accuracy of subjective probabilities. A general framework called Judgment Field Theory will integrate how these internal and external variables impact probability judgments. Moreover, the framework offers a cognitive account of how different descriptions of the same event (e.g., Lance Armstrong will win the race vs. Lance Armstrong won?t lose the race) change how judges evaluate the likelihood of an event occurring and how this evaluation changes as a function of time. The broader impacts of the research are three-fold. First, the research will help in the development of methods to evaluate the accuracy of subjective probabilities. These methods can ultimately be used to improve the accuracy of judges. Second, the theoretical framework will be used in the development of an undergraduate psychological methods course curriculum that infuses a traditional methods course with techniques of cognitive modeling. Finally, a broader impact is the outreach to and integration of a diverse group of undergraduate and graduate students into cognitive science at MSU.

我们每天都依赖专家和外行的概率判断。航天飞机的发射不仅取决于天气预报，还取决于工程师对某个部件是否会发生故障的主观意见。军事任务和政治政策是根据情报分析人员对事件将会发生或已经发生的信念来制定的。毫无疑问，使用概率判断来做出决策使得主观概率的准确性变得至关重要。事实上，主观概率的准确性在认知和决策科学中已经得到了很好的研究。然而，主观概率的一个同样有价值的方面是法官做出估计所需的时间。显然，法官做出概率判断所花费的时间对于法官和决策者来说都有外部成本。然而，人们对主观概率判断的内部时间进程知之甚少。因此，这些外部成本对主观概率及其准确性的影响尚不清楚。在这个项目中，首席研究员致力于研究法官外部的变量（例如时间压力、奖励和惩罚）和法官内部的变量（例如注意力和顺序效应）如何影响主观概率的时间过程和准确性。称为判断场理论的通用框架将整合这些内部和外部变量如何影响概率判断。此外，该框架提供了对同一事件的不同描述（例如，兰斯·阿姆斯特朗将赢得比赛与兰斯·阿姆斯特朗不会输掉比赛）如何改变法官评估事件发生可能性的方式以及这种评估方式的认知解释作为时间的函数而变化。该研究的更广泛影响有三个方面。首先，该研究将有助于开发评估主观概率准确性的方法。这些方法最终可以用来提高判断的准确性。其次，该理论框架将用于开发本科生心理方法课程，将传统方法课程与认知建模技术相结合。最后，更广泛的影响是密歇根州立大学认知科学领域不同群体的本科生和研究生的接触和融入。