Understanding Impacts of Climate Change on Energy Infrastructure in Urbanized Coastal Area

了解气候变化对沿海城市地区能源基础设施的影响

• 批准号: 0933414
• 负责人: Jorge Gonzalez
• 金额: $ 30.19万
• 依托单位: CUNY City College
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2009-08-01 至 2012-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0933414&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Understanding; Impacts; Climate; Change; Energy

0933414GonzalezThe main objective of this research is to identify asymmetric warming-cooling trends in coastal areas and the associated impacts on energy demands. Recent results of observational studies have suggested an asymmetric warming in coastal California not captured by global scale climate models or analyses. As a consequence, for this research it has been hypothesized that climate change impacts at inland sites in California have increased summer daytime horizontal temperature gradients, which have increased the strength and frequency of cool summer marine sea-breeze flows into heavily populated and highly polluted California coastal plains, which in turn decrease the demand for electrical energy for cooling. To test this hypothesis, the unique thermal surface gradient will be studied in detail along California coastlines and the specific implications for changes in average and peak electricity demands will be investigated. The approach will be to investigate the changes in both climatological degree days (for both heating and cooling) and in heat waves (in terms of frequency and severity), and to correlate these changes with topography, sea breeze patterns, urban centers, and distance from the coast. The climatological analysis will be correlated with existing energy demand information from electric and gas utilities in the state to determine spatial and temporal trends. The climatological analyses will be projected into the future (50+ years) with a mesoscale atmospheric model, which will be driven by downscaled information from Global Circulation Models based on IPCC scenarios. The modeling will address the relative effects of global warming (different scenarios) and land use changes, as reflected in changes of energy variables (degree days, peak electricity and gas demands). The project is a joint collaboration of two minority serving universities (CCNY and San Jose State University) and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.

0933414Gonzalez 这项研究的主要目的是确定沿海地区的不对称变暖-冷却趋势以及对能源需求的相关影响。 最近的观测研究结果表明，全球规模的气候模型或分析并未捕捉到加利福尼亚沿海地区的不对称变暖现象。 因此，本研究假设气候变化对加利福尼亚州内陆地区的影响增加了夏季白天水平温度梯度，从而增加了凉爽的夏季海洋海风流入人口稠密和污染严重的加利福尼亚州的强度和频率沿海平原，这反过来又减少了用于冷却的电能需求。 为了检验这一假设，将详细研究加州海岸线独特的热表面梯度，并将调查平均和峰值电力需求变化的具体影响。 该方法将调查气候日数（加热和冷却）和热浪（频率和严重程度）的变化，并将这些变化与地形、海风模式、城市中心和距离联系起来来自海岸。 气候分析将与该州电力和天然气公用事业的现有能源需求信息相关联，以确定空间和时间趋势。 气候分析将通过中尺度大气模型预测未来（50多年），该模型将由基于IPCC情景的全球环流模型的缩小信息驱动。 该模型将解决全球变暖（不同情景）和土地利用变化的相对影响，如能源变量（度数天数、峰值电力和天然气需求）的变化所反映的。 该项目是两所少数族裔服务大学（CCNY 和圣何塞州立大学）和劳伦斯伯克利国家实验室的联合合作项目。