Toward More Reliable Mobility: Improved Decision Support Tools for Transportation Systems

迈向更可靠的移动：改进的交通系统决策支持工具

• 批准号: 0928577
• 负责人: Yu Nie
• 金额: $ 53.65万
• 依托单位: Northwestern University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2009-09-01 至 2013-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0928577&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Toward; More; Reliable; Mobility; Improved

This project aims to integrate travel reliability into transportation network analysis methods by developing a coherent theoretical and methodological framework for representing travel reliability in network models, incorporating it in network routing and assignment formulations, and devising associated solution algorithms. Several fundamental issues in transportation system analysis under uncertainty will be addressed. First, the research team will apply the concept of stochastic dominance, a well-developed theory in economics and finance, to model heterogeneous risk-taking behavior in route choice, which promises to clarify the connections among different risk-modeling tools and to establish a more unified approach to model risk-taking behavior in route choice. Secondly, theoretically-justified and observationally-validated stochastic performance models will be developed to describe and predict travel time distributions. In particular, novel routing algorithms will be designed to compute and rank travel time distributions on a priori routes. Thirdly, the project will create novel network models capable of assessing travel reliability and evaluating its impacts at multiple levels of decision-making. Finally, the research will shed light on how the travel reliability information provision and traffic dynamics can be incorporated in reliability-based network models. Case studies constructed using real data will be conducted to assess how these new models can be used to predict future system performance, thereby supporting planning and operations decisions sensitive to travel reliability. Urban transportation systems are affected by uncertainties of various sorts, such as accidents, extreme weather, man-made disasters, special events and random travel and activity behavior. Taken individually or in combination, these factors could adversely affect and perturb the quality of transportation services. In particular, travel behavior researchers have established that unanticipated long delays on highways typically produce much worse frustration among motorists than "predictable" ones. Integrating travel reliability into transportation network analysis methods thus presents a pressing challenge that has motivated this research. Modeling tools produced under this project are able to account for unreliability of travel times, its effect on how travelers make travel decisions (route, departure time, mode, etc.), and the implications for overall performance and service quality of transportation infrastructure. Ultimately, the research will contribute to enhanced urban mobility and better quality of life, through better time use and more efficient activity participation and scheduling. The results from this research will be integrated into teaching through different forms (curriculum development, teaching tools, case studies, etc.) and thereby contribute to the training of future transportation workforce. Through this project, a web-based application of reliable route guidance will be developed and made available to other researchers and the general public. Potentially, this tool will benefit numerous motorists and freight and increase the public awareness on travel reliability issues.

该项目旨在通过开发一个连贯的理论和方法框架来表示网络模型中的出行可靠性，将其纳入网络路由和分配公式中，并设计相关的解决算法，从而将出行可靠性整合到交通网络分析方法中。 不确定性下交通系统分析的几个基本问​​题将得到解决。首先，研究团队将应用经济和金融领域成熟的随机优势理论的概念，对路径选择中的异质风险承担行为进行建模，这有望澄清不同风险建模工具之间的联系，并建立一个模型更统一的方法来模拟路线选择中的冒险行为。 其次，将开发经过理论验证和观察验证的随机性能模型来描述和预测旅行时间分布。 特别是，新颖的路线算法将被设计来计算和排序先验路线上的旅行时间分布。 第三，该项目将创建新颖的网络模型，能够评估旅行可靠性并评估其在多个决策层面的影响。 最后，该研究将阐明如何将出行可靠性信息提供和交通动态纳入基于可靠性的网络模型中。 将使用真实数据构建案例研究，以评估如何使用这些新模型来预测未来的系统性能，从而支持对旅行可靠性敏感的规划和运营决策。城市交通系统受到各种不确定性的影响，例如事故、极端天气、人为灾害、特殊事件以及随机出行和活动行为。这些因素单独或综合起来可能会对运输服务的质量产生不利影响和干扰。 特别是，出行行为研究人员发现，高速公路上意外的长时间延误通常会比“可预测的”延误给驾车者带来更严重的挫败感。 因此，将出行可靠性整合到交通网络分析方法中提出了紧迫的挑战，这也推动了这项研究。 该项目下生成的建模工具能够解释旅行时间的不可靠性、其对旅行者如何做出旅行决策（路线、出发时间、模式等）的影响，以及对交通基础设施整体性能和服务质量的影响。最终，该研究将通过更好的时间利用和更有效的活动参与和安排，有助于增强城市流动性和提高生活质量。这项研究的成果将通过不同的形式（课程开发、教学工具、案例研究等）融入到教学中，从而为未来交通劳动力的培训做出贡献。通过该项目，将开发基于网络的可靠路线引导应用程序，并将其提供给其他研究人员和公众。该工具有可能使众多驾车者和货运人员受益，并提高公众对出行可靠性问题的认识。